glad you enjoyed

do you think he was that concerned about domestic instability? a couple thousand people were detained in the first few days but after that, not much

"The people who will get Taiwan right may not be China hands but people asking what happens to aging autocrats with long-standing grievances and pliant elites."

ty Simon

Must-read on how most (but not all, tagging @anderspucknielsen.dk again) experts got it wrong on Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and what this should teach us about future predictions, esp re China and Taiwan

thanks I should have tagged him!

he has a sardonic detached manner sometimes that comes across as amoral. I think you have to take it ironically

Our two microblogging sites are the "relitigate Hitler" site and the "relitigate Stalin" site. One wonders what they're doing over on Threads.

some excellent points. yes, the matrix simplifies things a bit

yes!

Krastev called Orban the right-wing Castro, which I think is exactly right: the leader of a small relatively insignificant country, that nevertheless became the ideological lodestar for a global movement after being propped up by russia

Another thoughtful piece from Seva. The argument is largely built around the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine and why so many experts got it wrong.

My one quibble is that IMO, and this is a more general issue, the literature on personalist autocracies is short on personality. 1/3

absolutely. it's a tricky thing because the point of invoking the personalism literature is to offer general recurring mechanisms that travel across cases, but this has to be done in the context of recognizing the specificity of each case

ty 🙏

The Expert Trap and the Next War what forecasting failure tells us about the future

a deep dive into many bad predictions, and a few good ones, and what they mean for thinking about future conflict

Madman Theory, the Incel Debate, and Roscoe Office Hours — April 10, 2026

This week's Office Hours: Madman Theory, the Incel Debate, and Roscoe. to welcome new subscribers I've also opened up some paid posts as a preview -- take a look!

for sure

It’s… let’s say “disturbing” when the President of the United States sounds more messianic in his foreign policy threats than Iran’s mullahs.

Great, thought-provoking read.

Putin of course gets a mention. See Sperling's Sex, Politics, & Putin for the whole story.
(self-promo: I discuss "hypermasculinity" as part of the Code of Putinism)

the 2009 piece? that was an interesting one, and cited a lot. this is a little hubristic though

every dying great power gets a three-day special military operation, as a treat. sorry, that's just how history works

just thinking again about this article from a top poli sci journal

Someone sent me this.

I got lots of problems with these people but one of the biggest complaints I have is none of them know any of the pop culture references they keep using in memes. This guy literally threw the detonator out the window so no one would die

🎯Also:
"This is sometimes awkward for progressives to admit, but modernity feminizes society. In fact they shouldn’t have to admit it; they should assert it. It’s a good thing. Modernity feminizes society by empowering women to become full participants in economic and political life."
Good 4 men 2!

thank you

A good piece connecting the many threads between harmful masculinity and anti-democracy efforts

One comment: Yes, these men believe the world has 'feminized' by adapting to women's existence and needs. The ultimate problem is their version of masculinity cannot include care, dialogue or inclusion

The Incel Global Order modern autocracy as a cult of masculinity

the rise of the incel and the rise of the strongman are two connected and mutually reinforcing responses to the evils of modernity. new post

guy spilled a beer sitting outside and his dog went crazy trying to lick it up; the urge to get fucked up really transcends the species barrier

what's the opposite of a "global public good"