Healthcare and the NHS remains the top issue helping the Scottish public decide which party to vote for (56%, unchanged since Feb).
Energy policy appears for the first time in the top 5 issues for the public (27%).
Full findings 👉 bit.ly/4viUyLk
I spoke to @holyroodsources.bsky.social about our @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll out today, touching on the possibility of an SNP majority, the uncertainty surrounding Scottish marginals (and their vital importance), and the rising salience of energy costs given events in Iran:
But votes aren’t locked in yet.
With a month to go, 42% of Scots say they might still change their mind on who to vote for on their constituency vote (compared to 25% in April 2021).
42% also say they may still change their mind on their regional list vote (32% in April 2021).
🟡SNP also lead on regional list voting intention, with 29% of the constituency vote share, +3 from Ipsos' previous poll in February.
🟢Scottish Greens are on 16% (no change).
🔵Reform UK are also on 16% (+2).
NEW Scottish Political Monitor with STV News
🟡SNP remain ahead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 39% of the constituency vote share, +3 from Ipsos’ poll taken 19 – 25 February.
🔴Scottish Labour fall to 15%, (-5).
🔵Reform UK are at 15%, (-1).
We're 6 weeks out from the Scottish Parliament election. Here's what you need to know 👇
New article from Emily Gray in @heraldscotland.bsky.social using @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social data to reflect on Reform UK prospects for Holyrood 2026 (and beyond). www.heraldscotland.com/politics/vie...
Our team at Ipsos Scotland used robust analytical approaches to ensure these findings reflect real-world effectiveness. Its been no small undertaking! We’re pleased to be able to help quantify the positive role of relational support in improving life chances. Full report here: tinyurl.com/5n823c4p
Investing in young people delivers clear economic returns. For every £1 spent on MCR Pathways for care experienced pupils, society receives between £2.30 and £2.80 in benefits.
The benefits of the programme extend well beyond the classroom. Nine months after leaving school, participating pupils saw a 5-7 percentage point increase in positive destinations like higher education and training. Additionally, the programme led to a 5 percentage point reduction in unemployment…
The evaluation found that the programme led to a 7-9 percentage point reduction in school exclusions and an 8-13 percentage point increase in pupils staying on to S5. These results represent a substantial narrowing of the gap between care experienced and non-care experienced pupils…
We are proud to that our evaluation for @scotgov on the impact of MCR Pathways SMLP mentoring programme was published yesterday. 📢 It shows that the programme has a significant positive impact on the educational and post-school outcomes of care experienced young people across Scotland…
March leaderboard 📊
We asked the public 'to what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties?’.
🔵Only 22% agree Scottish Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government,
🔵 and, only 19% agree Reform UK is ready to form the next Scottish Government.
Desire for change in Scotland
🔵64% of the Scottish public agree that Scotland needs a fresh team of leaders,
🔵 and, 46% disagree that the current Scottish Government deserves to be re-elected.
But, Scots don’t see a better alternative...
The full report can be found here. www.gov.scot/publications...
A big thank you to the almost 5,000 people who took part and the team of 50+ interviewers!
6. Confidence in police and the justice system has declined slightly since 201/25 (49% thought they were doing an excellent / good job in 2024/25, compared to 45% in 2021/22).
However, most still feel safe in their communities (76% feel safe walking alone in their local area after dark).
5. Around half (49%) of all crimes experienced in 2024/25 were fraud and computer misuse. 11.5% of adults had experienced these types of crimes in the last 12 months.
The most common type of fraud experienced was bank and credit card fraud.
4. There has been a notable increase in violent crime experienced in the workplace over recent years – 46% of violent crime took place in the victim’s workplace in 2024/25, compared to 32% in 2019/20 and 23% in 2008/09.
Chart showing that experience of property and violent crime has decreased from 20.4% on 2008/2009 to 11.4% in 2024/2025
3. Around one in ten (11%) adults in Scotland experienced at least one property or violent crime in 2024/25.
While experience of property or violent crime has decreased significantly since 2008/09, this has stabilised in recent years.
2: Around one-in-five adults (21%) were a victim of at least one crime in 2024/25, including property crime, violent crime or fraud and computer misuse.
Similar to previous years, people aged 16-24, disabled adults and adults living in urban areas were more likely to experience crime.
1: The SCJS estimates that ~1.2 million crimes occurred in Scotland in 2024/25, including incidents not reported to the police – a similar level to 2023/24.
Fewer than a fifth of all SCJS crimes were estimated to have been reported to the police.
The latest Scottish Crime and Justice Survey report was published on Tues by @scottishgovernment.bsky.social. The SCJS captures people's experience and perceptions of crime.
We're really proud to be part of the team. Here are a few of the key findings…
Swinney has a clear lead over Sarwar and Offord on most key leadership traits.
For more 👉 www.ipsos.com/en-uk/favour...
💧Update reports now out from #deliberative research with water consumers for @consumerscotland.bsky.social. We've been engaging with 100 water consumers since early last year to inform the water sector's future plans for the next 6 years. Findings so far: tinyurl.com/8ncth7c4. Research is ongoing.
The Scottish public remain divided on Scottish independence with 51% likely to vote yes in an immediate referendum, and 49% saying they would vote no.
The top issue that the Scottish public say will be very important to how they vote in May remains healthcare/the NHS (56%).
Compared to Ipsos’ previous poll in December, inflation/the rising cost of living is down 6 points, while immigration is down 5 points.
31% of current Labour supporters who may change their vote would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats instead.
43% of current SNP supporters who may change their mind would consider voting for the Greens.
