This is the sane, best-case scenario... so probs not in today's world.
I'm completely in favor of AI-enhanced engineering. Pure vibe coding of critical projects/apps (even w/ cursory human "review") scares me. The $$ incentives pushing many to speedrun implementing the latter scare me a LOT.
What scares me most is the code maintenance aspect. I accept it's already terrifyingly capable of spitting out good results for many things ==> non-technical leaders are forcing rapid adoption. But what about tricky bugfixes or enhancements to a mostly-AI code base in 2-3 yrs? No one knows.
I put the probability of blackmail and/or abject bribery quite high as the explanation for his bullshit. Not really sure what else makes sense.
My 2c: I genuinely don't understand the problem with more complexity in mapping hazard probs to categorical. Did avg Joe know offhand that MDT required 15% tor vs. 45% hail before? Has the new table wrecked his trust in NOAA? There's room for reasonable concerns w/ new system, but this?
I voted for Trump because Kamala Harris campaigned with the neocon Liz Cheney. Here’s why I support the war in Iran.
OK, you do have a point on the "max expected EF" wording, which I agree is not ideal. It's a nearly unavoidable result of trying to dumb down the complexity of PDFs (the true meaning of each category) for public consumption, which IMO is the biggest core drawback of this new outlook scheme.
Right? There's literally a PDF associated with each CIG category (including <CIG1). How is that not probabilistic?
There are likely some downsides in the direct-to-public comms aspect of this scheme, but it's like no one online even acknowledges the clear upsides for other downstream users/systems.
Can't stop thinking about how:
1. Trump won the 2016 primary pretending to disown neocons/Iraq
2. The right has come around on Bush's WMDs as a deliberate lie
3. Most are cheerleading what happened last night
4. Venez. is a negligible source of US drugs
I mean, I just cannot with this timeline.
Net approval much better than same point in 1st term, better than Biden's final 18 months, and has rebounded(?) the past month. There's really no coming back from this level of societal stupid. www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approv...
I can't add any meaningful insight into the "how" or "why", but AIFS ENS members semi-regularly output snowfall where they predict 60F+ temperatures. Seems likely there's still some low hanging fruit for improving these systems.
So odd to talk this way 10 long years into dystopia. Is it just for easy in-tribe kudos or what?
The top comments on fauxnewsdotcom are calling for his execution with thousands of upvotes. "I like pilots that weren't captured" was 2015. "Honor & duty" are about as culturally jarring now as disco.
Aurora borealis over the Wichita Mountains in Oklahoma
Wall to wall pillars north during a substorm Tuesday evening in the Wichita Mountains, OK
Compulsively refreshing The Other Platform for solar storm info and thinking about how cooked we are if *nothing* the past year convinced a critical mass to abandon it... even in science niches.
The future of the internet and digital communication looks impossibly bleak.
Reds and greens reflecting off lakes in the Wichita Mountains of SW OK - likely a sight you can go a whole solar cycle without. 03:55 UTC on 2025-11-12. #okwx
The local Wichitas coyotes were audibly impressed by the 1050p CST substorm.
Nailed it. I was on the storm from T-15 min to TG and have absolutely nothing worth posting. Traffic, haze, playing the storm scared to avoid softballs... it was a lot. Seems the key for views was staying E/NE and not an inch S of the tor's latitude.
Consolation prize for what's coming the next 48 hours. It's been a minute since the stars have aligned for central OK to pull this off without horizon interference.
Another sunset view off the Grand Mesa in W CO from late September.
Sunset overlooking the Grand Mesa in Colorado with fall colors
Caught sunset with the many layers and colors of the Colorado Grand Mesa near peak a couple weeks ago.
Random thought of the day:
Centralized, convenient, authoritarian, manipulated, low quality
(X, Meta, Reddit)
always wins and marginalizes
Decentralized, slightly inconvenient, democratic, organic, high quality
(BlueSky, Mastodon, web forums)
Seems to sum up the entire history of the internet.
That's prob a silly anecdote and tangent to the broader issue of media literacy, critical thinking, and engagement with society overall. Obviously there's a wide distribution within each gen. But yeah, I also worry about how that distribution looks for gen z and later wrt all the areas I just listed
It's weird and uncomfortable trying to gauge how much is every generation's blind snobbery vs. how much is reality. Gotta admit, the stories about avg zoomers being tech illiterate bc they grew up on mega-dumbed-down iDevices radically undermine the expectations for the future I had 15 yrs ago.
New thought after seeing latest POI photo:
After that oval address, and with FBI in charge... is there any scenario where perp turns out to be someone apolitical or on the right, and that info is accurately relayed to the public?
That I can't really imagine it shows again how far gone we are.
That a POTUS would do this, let alone it being unremarkable in the scheme of things, is such a perfect illustration of how far gone we are. Hard to imagine coming back as a society from this fascist-leaning Idiocracy within a generation. 2/
POTUS gives address explicitly blaming "leftists" while manhunt is ongoing and no suspect ID'd. Then rattles off list of political violence that excludes the most recent major incident - MN in June - which saw 4 D *legislators*/family shot. You know, actual direct political violence/intimidation. 1/
The Gary, SD, tornado on 6/28/25 settled into a state of laminar perfection starting a little over halfway through its life cycle.
Guys, I think we might've needed the gatekeepers :(
I hope so tbh, and I live in the middle of OK.
As a TL cleanse from today's photogenic Dakotas bonanza, here's Gary 6/28 (so 7 Dakotas bonanzas ago?) around its peak drillbit stage.
