Historical legacies do matter — but not all the time.
Their influence is conditional, showing up when scientific guidance is limited and policymakers fall back on ingrained intuitions. This has implications far beyond pandemics — for crisis policy, risk governance, and cultural persistence.
Using weekly data (2020–2022) for:
182 countries worldwide and all US states, our study finds that:
- High‑exposure regions reacted more strongly to new COVID deaths in 2020
- The pattern holds within the United States
- The effect fades in 2021–2022, when knowledge and vaccines reduced uncertainty
These “behavioral immune system” responses lie dormant in normal times — but they are activated during crises with fundamental uncertainty.
The study shows that long‑run disease environments shape:
- intuitive reactions to health threats
- collective anxiety and support for protective measures
- governments’ willingness to impose strict containment policies
Countries and US states with higher historical disease exposure responded more strongly to rising COVID deaths, especially in 2020, when:
- the virus was new
- models were unreliable
- vaccines did not yet exist
Once vaccines arrived and uncertainty declined, this historical effect disappeared.
Why did COVID policies differ so much across countries?
In this article with @econannika.bsky.social, recently published in J Comp Econ, we find that deep historical exposure to infectious disease shaped how governments reacted to COVID‑19, but only during 2020.
authors.elsevier.com/a/1mTcY_3Mo1...
It was a great pleasure to host and listen to so many great presenters at this year’s ASWEDE outside Gothenburg. Already looking forward to next year in Stockholm!
We are very excited about the new research opportunities that this VR funding opens up for the department.
Kul att långsiktig ekonomisk tillväxt blir föremål för ännu ett Nobelpris! I artikeln nedan kommenterar mina kollegor och jag pristagarnas bidrag.
www.gu.se/nyheter/uppt...
Väldigt glad för denna fina recension av min bok Paleoeconomics i @ekonomiskdebatt.bsky.social !
www.nationalekonomi.se/artikel/pale...
Will we be able to trust key economic data from the US again?
The America We Knew Is Rapidly Slipping Away www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/o...
Just presented my paper on weather shocks and monument construction during the Classic Maya period at the WEHC in Lund. Happy for the great lineup of very interesting papers and presenters and for the turnout. Also thrilled to find my book in the book exhibition!
Jag kommenterar handelsavtalet mellan EU-USA i dagens Di. Jag tycker att EU vek ned sig alldeles för lätt. Inget hindrar Trump från att kräva ännu mer senare. Att ensidigt acceptera 15% tullar är orimligt.
dise.page.link?link=https:/...
I was interviewed a short time ago in Javier’s excellent EPH Podcast about my book Paleoeconomics. I hope you enjoy listening to it.
www.linkedin.com/posts/javier...
EU should of course respond with tariffs in line with the measures agreed on in April. Time to take a break from the flattery that EU leaders have tried in different fora and show resolve.
Kommenterar senatens behandling av Trumps budget Dagens ETC.
Congratulations to @rhelensdotter.bsky.social !
Several members of faculty in the development group @gothenburg-econ.bsky.social have taken part in this nice collaboration as supervisors. We thank our Ethiopian friends for their visit and hope for fruitful research interaction in the future.
There are of course numerous lessons from recent history about what Trump’s handling of the unrest in LA might lead to. The most worrying is probably ”Crackdowns can be steppingstones to wider power grabs.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/w...
Our frequent guest and affiliated colleague Martin Berg Karlsson @drdemant.bsky.social has co-authored a paper on German health insurance that is forthcoming in @jpolecon.bsky.social. Congratulations! doi.org/10.1086/734781
An illustration of how the Trump administration’s counterproductive tariffs hurt even the manufacturing of Swedish cars in the US.
Our results show that while extreme Nile floods result in a greater degree of political instability (ruler and dynastic tenure durations), periods with a greater rainfall in the hinterland cause a decline in state capacity and a delayed increase in political instability.
Effective enviromental circumscription was created through an interplay between Nile floods (proxied by rainfall over Highland Ethiopia) and Mediterranean rains that determined the productivity of the hinterland.
My paper with Laura Mayoral on the political impact of floods and droughts in Ancient Egypt, is now assigned to an issue of JEconGrowth. We provide evidence of a "dynamic circumscription model" where Egypt was sometimes like a "social cage" where rulers could easily dominate.
rdcu.be/eoDL5
We were very happy to host Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin today during seminars and an important keynote lecture. Thanks to all 700 participants irl and online for attending!
www.gu.se/en/event/cla...
Very good!!
Such an incredibly well deserved PL title!!!
