Guess it was never really off

Looks like the war is back on

The rate of change matters for mass perception

I don’t think we appreciate quite how close we are to global energy catastrophe. And the demand destruction and job losses and fuel insecurity that would surely follow. We sit on the precipice. Elites and the masses alike are blinded by legions of political propaganda courtiers paid to sell nonsense

“.. producers who have been forced to turn off their oil and gas wells will be reluctant to restart them ‘until people have confidence that you have a lasting agreement.’”

@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/b...

Clock is ticking for the global economy

Europe is like 6 weeks from running out of jet fuel. Clock is ticking…

If the ceasefire holds? Generational loss for the US and Israel. Hard to quantify how bad this is for them geopolitically. Which is precisely why there’s a good chance this breaks down in the short to medium term.

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

The thing with PR, comms, media spin, marketing is that you can twist and mold perception, you can outright lie to people, but you can’t let reality overwhelm the narrative. If reality gets too large it overwhelms and shatters the illusion, and then the magic is lost. You can’t put it back

What we’re watching in the Iran war is two types of propaganda illusions being shattered in real time: The illusion of Trump’s power, and the illusion of American military might.

Trump will emerge from this broken, weak, enfeebled. And so will US military power. Iran has broken them both.

Quitting the war means more than losing face. It is a de facto declaration that Iran is the strongest power in the region, and that US military power is waning. No guarantee Iran won’t slow strait traffic anyway. Staying in means energy prices balloon, melting down western economies. DC is trapped.

Weaponized stupidity

The core US goal shifted from opening the blockaded strait for oil shipments to save western economies from ruin…to blockading the strait themselves? What

If the war ends here on Iranian terms. It will be the most consequential military defeat the US has suffered since the end of WW2. Catastrophic defeat for the US and Israel, who gambled everything. A global recession may still be on the horizon regardless because of their strategic blunders.

End result of Trump’s term is that Russia, Iran, and Venezuela all get sanctions relief. And the Europeans get tariffs 😂😂😂

US has to be trying to buy time….two or three weeks to try to position for another attack…these terms are unbelievable. A complete surrender from DC. Would mean the end of US global supremacy forever. A generational loss for the US and Israel. This has to be a feint…?

Iran channeling Muad’Dib

When Trump said “a whole civilization will die tonight” did he mean the west?

US has to be trying to buy time….two or three weeks to try to position for another attack…these terms are unbelievable. A complete surrender from DC. Would mean the end of US global supremacy forever. A generational loss for the US and Israel. This has to be a feint…?

There are only 2 options left for DC:
1. Quit the war, de facto acknowledging Iran as regional hegemon and hope for success in a war against China is lost forever. Leave Israel in utter crisis.
2. Stay in the war and pray for a miracle, the Ukraine model. Wreck the global economy and bury the GOP

There is no such thing as unlimited power. Because power can only be exercised within finite systems. The failure to understand this has led to the downfall of many.

All forms of power—military, political, economic, social, cultural, institutional—can only be exercised within bounded systems. Which means that all power is limited and constrained, by definition. Determining the limits of power—your own and others—is the key to success in any long term game.

Won’t be the last time.

MORGAN STANLEY: Recent data "confirm a regime shift: foreign ownership of Treasuries has fallen to '97 lows, making speculation about outright sales seem plausible."

Yeah, that’s… pretty bad!

The legal chicanery inspired by racism in that state is incredible. Shutting down schools. Creating new cities. Now this. Not many do it like Georgia.

A failed ground operation in Iran would be the final nail in the coffin for this geopolitical disaster. The lasting legacy won’t just be Iran regional hegemony, but the collapse of US projection power. Any hopes of defeating China are completely shattered. Its laughable to even suggest it now.

$200 oil and the midterms will look like a reverse McGovern electoral map

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