New publication!
@govjournal.bsky.social
Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy perf. When do citizens respond? @andrewleber.bsky.social and @draege.bsky.social highlight the role of hist. legacies of development in labor-market views in Saudi Arabia
doi.org/10.1111/gove...
Very happy and proud to have co-authored this paper in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, with @plutscher.bsky.social & @chknutsen.bsky.social 😊
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Please see Philipp's 🧵 below for the main findings 😊
@ejprjournal.bsky.social even timed the publication to my birthday 🎉😀
More seriously: so happy to see this published, and grateful to have worked with and learned from @plutscher.bsky.social & @draege.bsky.social
Propaganda—>Diff’t Emotions—>Protest behavior
Check out Philipp’s thread 👇
Yesterday marked one year since İmamoğlu was taken into custody
He polled higher than Erdoğan. He's now in jail facing over 100 politicized charges.
Thank you @sinemadar.bsky.social and Sinem Bal for including my thoughts the latest CATS Network issue:
www.cats-network.eu/assets/cats/...
My article with @andrewleber.bsky.social is out now in @govjournal.bsky.social!
Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia
doi.org/10.1111/gove...
In a new article for @govjournal.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social & I examine labor-market views in Saudi Arabia to argue that "historical legacies of development substantially affect perceptions of regime [policy] performance in the long run." [Open Access]
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
“the response to the killings.. follows the Israeli script to the letter..like Syrian regime campaign to defame the White Helmets, Russian campaigns to shape narratives in Ukraine, Saudi campaigns to deny responsibility for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi”
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/muddying-mur...
Kind of surreal to be discussing my new book on my favorite podcast for learning about new books.
Marc as always knows so much about the topic; it's a real privilege (if intimidating) to be in conversation with him.
New Publication!
Opposition often fails to coordinate. Why?
@draege.bsky.social and @maryhenjimenez.bsky.social find two overlooked drivers (resource asymmetry and extraordinary times as stress-tests) in their deep comparative analysis of Venezuela and Turkey journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Recent work from the polarized United States shows similar asymmetry.
If conciliatory messages were to work anywhere, it should be in Norway, one of the least polarized democracies.
Our findings suggest they don’t, pointing to basic psychology, rather than polarization, as a key explanation.
We argue that negativity bias best explains this asymmetry: negative information triggers stronger and faster reactions than positive messages.
This makes it far easier for elites to fan the flames of conflict than to put out the fire.
Our findings show a clear asymmetry in elite influence: recriminatory messages reliably increase perceptions of political conflict, while conciliatory messages have no detectable effect.
Treatment vignettes
In a survey experiment with over 2,200 respondents, we test whether mutual recrimination between elites over the July 22 2011 attacks heightens perceptions of political conflict and whether conciliatory messages reduce them.
My new article with @leberntzen.bsky.social out in @scandpolstud.bsky.social!
Can politicians calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it?
Our experimental evidence from Norway suggests that they cannot.
🧵
Jeg skriver i Dagens Næringsliv om noe som har gått litt under radaren i utkastet til fredsavtalen mellom Russland og Ukraina: G7/8 medlemskap til Russland. Og om symbolikken bak det: www.dn.no/innlegg/ukra...
New article with @draege.bsky.social out in Scandinavian Political Studies: “Asymmetric Influence: Politicians Can Fuel but Not Dampen Conflict.” We test whether politicians in one of the world’s least polarized democracies, Norway, can calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it. #polisky
Drawing on Venezuela under chavismo and Turkey under Erdoğan, we show how opposition fragmentation may persist despite repeated coordination efforts.
2. Extraordinary times as stress tests
Elections and protests are often seen as moments of unity. But they can just as easily deepen divisions and expose unresolved tensions.
1. Resource asymmetry
Unequal access to funding, organization, and leadership breeds mistrust and competition, even within formal coalitions. Dominant actors may impose strategies, sidelining weaker ones and eroding trust.
New article out in @polstudies.bsky.social!
Why do opposition parties in authoritarian regimes so often fail to coordinate, even when unity could help them win?
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
In this article, we highlight two overlooked drivers of opposition fragmentation 🧵
Why do opposition parties in autocracies struggle to unite? Jonas Bergan Draege & @maryhenjimenez.bsky.social examine how resource asymmetry & high-pressure moments like protests deepen fragmentation. Read more: buff.ly/k2arX2i
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
That is wonderful to hear!! Thank you ☺️☺️
Taken together, we argue that emotionally charged, easily digestible videos help populist autocrats tell a compelling story that turns past glories and threats into a basis for regime legitimation.
Special thanks to Didem Seyis and Ezgi Şiir
Kıbrıs for outstanding research assistance!
Author Screenshot (T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı 2017)
Author Screenshot (T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı 2017)
A third common theme is the portrayal of perennial threats. PHVs show Turkey under attack by coup plotters, Western powers, or faceless enemies. Martyred citizens appear in color as the "pure" ingroup, resisting "corrupt" outgroups in black and white.
Author Screenshot with Autogenerated Captioning (T.C. İletişim Başkanlığı 2021)
Author Screenshot (T.C. İletişim Başkanlığı 2021)
Another core theme in PHVs is strength through sacrifice. Voice-over narration (often by Erdoğan) adds drama to scenes of martyrs fighting on “just when hopes were about to be extinguished,” linking historical battles and the 2016 coup as shared moments of national resilience.
Author Screenshot (AK PARTİ 2018)
Author Screenshot (T.C. İletişim Başkanlığı 2020)
We then used intertextual analysis to examine how common themes in PHVs were conveyed. Some videos show flag-bearing figures riding through battles like Manzikert and Gallipoli into today’s Turkey. Others use 1980s nostalgia, sepia tones, and folk music to urge support for the AKP.
Most Common Historical References in PHVs
Most Common Heroes Depicted in PHVs
Most Common Enemies Depicted in PHVs
Our coding scheme tracked which historical figures and events appeared in each video, and who was cast as hero or enemy.
Number of Storytelling Videos Released by Year
We created a new dataset of 11,000+ YouTube videos shared by Turkey’s ruling party and state institutions (2005–2022).
From these, we hand-coded 134 “storytelling videos”, including “Popular History Videos” (PHVs) that use the past to legitimize rule today.
Author Screenshot (T.C. İletişim Başkanlığı 2020)
My article "Film-Making the Nation Great Again" with
@liselhintz.bsky.social is out now in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social!
doi.org/10.1017/S153...
We show how Turkey’s ruling party instrumentalizes history through emotionally evocative videos to legitimize the authoritarian incumbent
🧵
My article "Film-Making the Nation Great Again" with @draege.bsky.social is out in Perspectives!
Poli sci work on authoritarianism and populism largely overlooks audiovisual strategies.
Our multi-modal study uses a new dataset of 11,000+ regime YouTube videos in Turkey.
doi.org/10.1017/S153...