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Posts by United States Studies Centre

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“The US budget cycle is bewildering even for seasoned experts.”

The Trump administration's decision to work around it — rather than through it — carries consequences, explains Tom Corben and Esther Soulard.
www.ussc.edu.au/trump-congress-and-the-b...

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Trump’s madcap folly emboldening this ‘axis of upheaval’ China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, dubbed the CRINKs, have been bolstered by their shared determination to challenge the US-led world order.

The CRINKs will continue helping Iran “even if there is a ceasefire," says USSC's Dr Lavina Lee.

"China, Russia and North Korea will use any ceasefire to help Iran rebuild its missile and drone capability."

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SIAA-Bartier Perry Space Governance Webinar Join SIAA and Bartier Perry for a webinar on space governance, exploring legal, regulatory, and policy issues shaping the future of space activity.

Space is moving fast. Governance needs to keep up.

Tomorrow, join USSC's @katrobison.bsky.social to unpack the future of the field, at a webinar by the Space Industry Association of Australia and Bartier Perry Law.

Register ↓

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'Damn it, let's go after him': What the Democrats need to topple Donald Trump The midterm elections are on the horizon, and the contest to succeed Donald Trump is quietly underway.

Which Democrats could run for president in 2028?

USSC's David Smith and Bruce Wolpe examine the emerging field — and the message that could define the party’s next campaign.
www.sbs.com.au/news/article/donald-trum...

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A remarkable turn in regional attitudes.

A new Asan Institute poll shows Koreans' improved views of Japan and enduring support for the United States. What’s driving the shift? USSC CEO Dr Michael Green explains. www.ussc.edu.au/asan-foreign-policy-poll...

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We’re entering a new era of space exploration after Artemis II.

But where does Australia fit in? Dr Kathryn Robison and Isobel Haddow explore how we can turn our space strengths into real economic and security gains. www.ussc.edu.au/harnessing-australias-sp...

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"One can find ample evidence of harm to American power and prestige but far less advantage for China, Russia or Iran than many seers in the media assert."
www.ussc.edu.au/iran-war-doesn-t-herald-...

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Going, going, gone: What it means to be a ‘failed’ state Talk of “failed” states has re-emerged amid the war in Iran. Why are failed and fragile states such a worry?

“The Iranian regime has been more resilient than they [the US] expected… the security apparatus is still intact.”

With no “signs yet of significant defection,” USSC's Lavina Lee warns leadership losses raise the prospect of an internal power struggle.

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Australia ranked second globally for data centre investment in 2024.

But growth may outpace the energy system. What does it mean for the grid, the energy transition and electricity costs? Johanna Lim explains. www.ussc.edu.au/powering-the-cloud-data-...

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Triumph or tragedy? There may be few options left for Trump Donald Trump has two options and one hope in Iran. The options: escalate or leave. The hope: a deal with Tehran that allows him to claim victory and go home. He's probably happy to leave the Iranian regime intact provided it opens the Strait of Hormuz, ...

On President Trump's approach to alliances, "Trump has always seen NATO as something that entangles the US, rather than as a force multiplier as previous presidents did,” says USSC's Jared Mondschein.

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Trump's deadline for Iran expires in hours. What happens next?

With Trump’s deadline for Iran just hours away — the real calculus may be political, not military.

As USSC's Lester Munson argues, “his focus today is likely more on his legacy than the results of the next two US elections.”

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One year on, the impact of “Liberation Day” tariffs wasn’t uniform.

Some economies gained US import share — while China’s decline far exceeded what tariffs alone would predict. www.ussc.edu.au/one-year-after-liberatio...

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How the war in Iran may shape US politics | The Strategist Is it possible at this juncture of the Iran war to extrapolate out the domestic political consequences for the United States, particularly for President Donald Trump? Let’s look at two possibilities. ...

“A military victory does not automatically confer electoral success.”

USSC's Lester Munson explores how the Iran war could reshape US politics — from economic pressures to the balance of power in Congress.

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“Economic, political and geopolitical consequences will last for years,” writes USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

He examines how Iran war is reshaping energy markets, domestic politics, and global alignments.
www.ussc.edu.au/the-long-term-strategic-...

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Iran isn’t isolated: How autocracies are escalating the war Authoritarian powers are helping each other fight against democratic states – which is more than some first-world allies are doing for each other. That’s worth worrying about.

Iran’s missile program reflects years of external support.

As USSC's Dr Lavina Lee writes, Iran's missile arsenal is "all based on North Korean technology… improved and manufactured in Iran with direct engineering and technical assistance from Pyongyang.”

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Under Trump, Australia juggles a precarious alliance it can’t replace From Nixon to Trump, US shocks are nothing new. But this time feels different, and Australia must navigate an alliance that is both essential and increasingly unpredictable.

Washington had many instances of being a challenging ally, says USSC's Jared Mondschein.

The question is whether the Trump administration’s actions indicate enduring structural change.

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Critical minerals are now seen as strategic defence assets. And yet, supply chains remain highly concentrated.

With time of the essence, what can Australia and its partners do to address the challenge? →
www.ussc.edu.au/building-supply-chain-re...

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Australia and South Korea share strong foundations for cooperation — yet progress remains incremental and episodic.

So what's holding the partnership back? We unpack it in our latest report → www.ussc.edu.au/outcomes-of-the-2025-aus...

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The WTO’s “crown jewel” dispute system is no longer functioning.

Without enforcement, what role can it still play in global trade? Sahara Hoff explains. www.ussc.edu.au/what-is-the-future-for-t...

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What the Iran war means for the Middle East — and the world A panel discussion with Dr Michael Green, Dr Rana Dadpour and Faraz Maghami, moderated by Jared Mondschein.

How might the war in Iran end?

This Thursday, join Dr Michael Green, Dr Rana Dadpour, Faraz Maghami and Jared Mondschein to unpack it and more.

Register ↓

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We're at the edge of a crisis, so how will Future Made in Australia help? There is an obvious truth to the deep inadequacies in Australian resilience and capability that have been exposed by US President Donald Trump's military adventurism in Iran.

With the end of the “Washington consensus”, the Future Made in Australia agenda should be "recast to give greater weight to national security and economic security interests,” says USSC's Dr John Kunkel.

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Why the Middle East war matters more to Australia than it seems Australia is far from the Middle East conflict — but not untouched by it. As risks ripple outwards, Canberra's role is quietly being tested.

Australia is far from the Middle East, but it remains economically exposed.

USSC's Hayley Channer says it’s not just fuel — rerouted shipping, insurance hikes and supply disruptions are compounding “that will push prices up for all goods.”

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“At the moment of greatest urgency, American inventories are low.”

USSC's Tom Corben explores how sustained operations — including the war against Iran — are exposing deeper shortfalls in US missile production.


www.ussc.edu.au/by-the-numbers-us-missil...

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Two competing visions are emerging for US allies in a changing world order.

For @foreignaffairs.com, USSC's Dr Michael Green argues Sanae Takaichi’s strategy — anchoring coalitions around US power — offers "the more realistic path."

Read → https://www.ussc.edu.au/how-takaichi-can-triumph

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‘We will hunt you down’: Is Pete Hegseth for real? It’s been a busy year for Hegseth. Now, with the war in Iran, he’s firmly in the spotlight. How is he performing so far?

As the conflict with Iran continues, Pete Hegseth is now firmly in the spotlight.

So who is he?

USSC's Dr Michael Green, Bruce Wolpe and Dr David Smith provide their insights for the @sydmorningherald.bsky.social.

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When will the war in Iran end? It depends on who you ask Two weeks after the US and Israel first struck Iran, Donald Trump's timeline and end goal for the war remain uncertain.

Why does the messaging keep shifting on the Iran war?

“Trump clearly doesn’t want to get tied to any single war aim.”

USSC+@sydney.edu.au's Dr David Smith says shifting rhetoric reflects the political risks of committing to a clearly defined objective.

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A 33km-wide waterway is threatening energy markets.

Recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already pushed energy prices up nearly 30%. We break down which countries are exposed ↓ www.ussc.edu.au/by-the-numbers-escalatin...

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The future of the Quad took centre stage in Sydney this February.

Together with the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, we convened the Quad Leadership Track-1.5 Dialogue, bringing together senior officials, diplomats, scholars and industry leaders from across the Indo-Pacific.

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Australia-Taiwan relations: What are the policy options and priorities for engagement?
Australia-Taiwan relations: What are the policy options and priorities for engagement? YouTube video by United States Studies Centre

🎥 Panel 2: Australia–Taiwan relations — policy options and priorities for engagement

Featuring Nick Bisley, Caitlin Byrne and Rachel Noble on pathways to deepen engagement with Taiwan while maintaining regional stability.

Watch →

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Strategy, alliances and uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific region: Welcome remarks and Panel 1
Strategy, alliances and uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific region: Welcome remarks and Panel 1 YouTube video by United States Studies Centre

🎥 Panel 1: Strategy, alliances and uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific

Featuring Justin Bassi, Michael Green, Lavina Lee and Peter Varghese discussing the evolving US strategic outlook and what it means for Australia and its partners.

Watch →

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