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Posts by Colby Smith

Trump reiterates that the US should have the lowest rates in the world as he doubles down on its support for Warsh. "I want Kevin. I think Kevin's great. He's central casting"

3 hours ago 10 0 1 0

He later says: "I'm afraid Kevin will have to have an office next to me in the White House, because that building is not going to be done."

4 hours ago 37 6 1 1

Speaking to CNBC, Trump does not suggest he's ready to take an off ramp with the investigation into Powell, which is currently holding up his pick, Warsh, to lead the Fed.

"You have to find out why a thing like that could happen," he said of the costly renovations ongoing at the Fed's headquarters.

4 hours ago 19 2 1 5
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Trump’s Pick to Lead Fed Will Face Senators at a Tricky Moment

Warsh has spent years refining his pitch for why he should become the next Fed chair. On Tuesday, he'll give it to the Senate Banking Committee

The question on everyone's minds is just how much he will heed to Trump's demands for lower rates

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/b... @nytimes.com

4 hours ago 6 3 1 0
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Warsh is set to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed's independence in setting rates is "essential" but that policy decisions related to bank regulation and "public monies" should not be given the same deference

23 hours ago 19 4 3 5
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Democrats Make Final Push to Delay Confirmation Hearing of Trump’s Fed Pick

NEW: All 11 Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee joined in a final push to delay Warsh's confirmation hearing ahead of his scheduled appearance on Tuesday

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/16/b... @nytimes.com

5 days ago 10 3 0 0
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Amid a debate about whether Powell can serve as Fed chair on a temporary basis after his term ends on May 15 (if Warsh is not confirmed by then), there are two primary reasons to think the law is on Powell's side

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/b... @nytimes.com

5 days ago 11 5 0 0
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NEW: The DOJ's probe into the Fed, which Trump defended Wednesday, risks handing the president a double loss: It threatens to leave his candidate for chair in limbo once Powell's term ends. It also raises the odds that Powell stays on as a governor www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/b... @nytimes.com

5 days ago 12 1 0 0

Trump says he will fire Powell if he does not resign from the Fed and that he is not planning to drop the probe into the central bank's renovations (Prosecutors made a surprise visit there on Tuesday)

The investigation is holding up Warsh's chair confirmation and raising the odds that Powell stays

6 days ago 30 5 1 1
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NEW w/ @glennthrush.bsky.social: Pirro defends investigation into the Fed after prosecutors made a surprise visit on Tuesday to the central bank’s active construction site at the center of its probe

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/u... @nytimes.com

6 days ago 26 6 4 3
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Trump’s Fed Pick Discloses Vast Wealth Ahead of Confirmation Hearing

Ahead of his expected hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Kevin Warsh vowed to divest a substantial amount of his more than $100m in assets as he faces a complicated path to becoming the next Fed chair www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com

1 week ago 10 2 0 0
Live Updates: Inflation Surges as Effects of the Iran War Show in Prices

Inflation surged to 3.3% in March, almost a full point higher than the month before and higher than it was when Trump took office. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

1 week ago 93 38 3 10
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Live Updates: Inflation Surges as Effects of the Iran War Show in Prices

Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for the month and are up 15% YoY
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04... @nytimes.com

1 week ago 41 9 1 0
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NEW: As Feb PCE data confirms, the Fed had an inflation problem long before the Iran war

Progress toward 2% had stalled & ex-housing services inflation was stuck above a 20-yr avg of 2.7%, a backdrop that complicates rate decisions amid an energy shock

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/b... @nytimes.com

1 week ago 47 14 0 1
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Williams of @newyorkfed.org echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves.

He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade over time and for inflation to end the year around 2.75%

3 weeks ago 13 1 1 1
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Private-Credit Wobbles Could Prove Perilous for Trump

On private credit, Powell said it was a "relatively small part of a very large asset pool" that the Fed was watching "super carefully"

About financial regulation more broadly, Powell said the Fed "shouldn't be trying to regulate risk out of existence"

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/b... @nytimes.com

3 weeks ago 6 3 0 0
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Resurgent Inflation Tests Faith in Fed’s Willingness to Tame It

Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations"

This recent piece w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social explains why www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/b... @nytimes.com

3 weeks ago 16 8 0 1
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Concerns around private credit are mounting just as the Trump admin is expanding access to it

Fund managers, lobbyists and lawmakers are now awaiting the rollout of a Dept of Labor proposal that would include alternative assets in 401ks
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/b... Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com

3 weeks ago 74 22 5 2
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NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: The war in Iran is once again testing Americans' faith that the the Fed will eventually get inflation under control, putting fresh pressure on the central bank as it debates whether to cut rates this year

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/b... @nytimes.com

3 weeks ago 65 9 4 0
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Fed Official Urges Caution on Rate Cuts as Iran War Drags On

"Caution is warranted," Waller tells @steveliesman.bsky.social after voting to hold rates steady as the war upends the economic outlook

"It doesn’t mean that I’m going to stay put for the rest of the year. I just want to wait and see where this goes."

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 40 10 1 1
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Iran War Narrows Fed’s Path to a Rate Cut

Even as Powell on Wednesday sought to avoid sending an explicit signal about where rates might be headed, it quickly became clear that there exists only a very narrow path for cuts this year — one that could easily close if the Iran war drags on

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 66 6 2 0
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What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s March Meeting

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed may restart cuts, if at all

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 15 4 1 1
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Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 15 2 2 1
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Justice Dept. Legal Threat Complicates Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair

For a moment on Friday, Kevin Warsh was on a glide path to becoming the next Fed chair

But within the hour, his pathway narrowed about as quickly as it had emerged, as the DOJ vowed to appeal a ruling that thwarted an investigation into the central bank www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 51 15 3 0
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Major victory for the Fed on Friday, with a federal judge throwing out subpoenas the Justice Department issued the central bank regarding renovations to its headquarters in Washington.

1 month ago 29 8 0 1
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Higher Oil Prices Could Put the Fed in a Bind as Labor Market Softens

Trump calls for the Fed to drop rates "IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!"

Officials are instead gearing up to once again hold rates steady next week, extending a pause that began in January www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 113 25 13 3
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Consumer prices stayed subdued in February

February's benign CPI report is not going to change much about the Fed's thinking around rates, because it reflects the period before the Iran war.

Now officials must weigh resurgent inflation risks against the possibility of dented consumer spending www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 25 5 1 0
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The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for war with Iran.

Now, elevated energy prices risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate about how to proceed www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/b... @nytimes.com

1 month ago 95 20 5 0
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Trump’s War Becomes World’s Latest Economic Hazard

Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict with Iran could inflict steep financial costs on Americans

"I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes.com

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social Alan Rappeport

1 month ago 76 18 12 1

February's jobs report will stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials remain concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation, an issue that has only intensified in light of the conflict in the Middle East

1 month ago 11 4 1 0