Today at the blog, I mulled whether Aryna Sabalenka is our new Queen of Clay. Elo says she's now the best on the surface, her stats say she's barely fazed by slow dirt, and yet...
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/05...
not off-hand, haven't thoroughly checked yet.
Today at the blog, I attempted to answer The Question:
Why Can’t Iga Swiatek Beat Jelena Ostapenko?
Turns out, the tougher question is, what can Iga possibly do about it?
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/04...
You have to admit, Dan, if they keep scoring 2.6 runs in their losses, they will continue to lose all of those games. Even if they get that up closer to 3!
Today I wrote about Lorenzo Musetti -- how good is the one-hander? How much do smart tactics allow him to hit it? Will he ever be a serious threat on hard courts? Much more at the link:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/04...
Today I wrote about *the rally* -- why Berrettini was a better bet to win than you might have thought, and the underrated shots that allowed him to actually pull it off. Lots more in the full post:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/04...
Today I wrote about Sofia Kenin -- on the heels of her run in Charleston, is she back? Just another bump on the roller coaster? The stats describe a different player than I thought she was ... and a different player than she was at her peak in 2020.
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/04...
Today at the blog, a new Trivia Notebook! We look at
- players with high rankings despite no finals
- what kind of year-end ranking for Fonseca would make history?
- who has beaten a former and future number one in the same tournament?
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/04...
I haven't looked closely at it, so I don't have a good answer for you.
Today at the blog: A deep dive into Jakub Mensik's outrageous tiebreak record, and the likelihood that he will sustain it. A good overview of my tiebreak research over the years:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/04...
The March Monthly Roundup is out, with links, dataviz, trivia, history, vintage match video, and more:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today I wrote about Jakub Mensik, the 19-year-old Czech with the devastating first serve. He's beating top-tenners despite a game that is far from fully developed. Give him a quality second serve, and watch out.
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today I wrote about second serves -- are they becoming useless? Do they need to be 100mph? Are servers increasingly going to the forehand? Some things are changing, but a lot more remains constant. Thanks to Karue Sell for the prompt here:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today I wrote about Jack Draper - how and why his stats break down by rally length, how his aggression level stacks up against other big servers, and what to think about his painful showing against break points: www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today at the blog, the 3rd installment of the Trivia Notebook. We cover Belinda Bencic's knack for beating her betters, Tallon Griekspoor's long-awaited top-five upset, and more.
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today I (finally) wrote about Jessica Pegula, a top-five player without any (obvious) top-five skills. Digging into the numbers to try to find her magic potion, I mostly come up empty, but we learn a bit more about the J-Peg game in the process:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today at the blog I answered a burning question.
One that has been keeping us all up at night.
Was Fred Stolle Snubbed at the 1966 US Championships?
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
Today I wrote about the revitalized Stefanos Tsitsipas backhand -- his shot selection, how much it helped, and what it might mean for his future results:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/03...
The February Monthly Roundup is out -- first time in internet history that Warren Harding, Yu Darvish, and Gene Wilder's hitting partner make it into the same blog post. Plus trivia, dataviz, and more.
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/02...
Not many full matches before the mid-70s--just Wimbledon finals, mostly. And even those only back to ~1960. Before that it's short newsreels.
Until ~1990, there are many involving the biggest stars, very few others. 1990s: More surviving footage than remaining hours in our lives.
Today I wrote about shot tolerance -- what it is, how to (maybe) quantify it, and what it tells us about Carlos Alcaraz. And Jannik Sinner, because any time I come up with a new stat, Sinner dominates it.
Lots more in the full post:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/02...
Today I finally updated the Tennis 128 ... it's now 131 players strong, with last year's addition of Iga Swiatek plus newbies Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka. More about the new members, as well as the players who could be joining them soon:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/02...
Admit it, you only did this so you could use that headline
Today I wrote about Arthur Fils, and the second serve that is holding him back. The graphic shows what's wrong; the blog dives into why, and whether history suggests he can fix it.
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/02...
Today at the blog, the first installment of a new regular(?) feature(?), the Monthly Roundup. Links, commentary, trivia, and history, all in one not-fully-thought-out place.
Here's my favorite bit. Click for lots more...
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/01...
yes, one of these days - I keep forgetting
Hope she'll be there for the eventual Mayot - Mayo showdown
Today I wrote about Jannik Sinner. How on earth did he hold a top-ten returner to zero break points? Are his tactics changing as he distances himself from the field?
Breaking down the service game of the best player on earth:
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/01...
New at the blog: Trivia Notebook #2, with notes on
- Lebanon's first slam match win (and who's next)
- fifth-set momentum (with and without bathroom breaks)
- the dire state of the one-handed backhand, AO edition
www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/01...
Today I wrote about Elina Svitolina, who is a different hard-court player than she was a few years ago. Elina 2.0 is working out well so far, though Keys will be a tough test. Dig in at the blog: www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/01...