It's a lot of work and the audience is a lot less

It's not uncommon to straddle the line. It's actually harder that you'd think to shed $1M, because you're trying to do it in only 30%-40% of a season remaining.

So to save $1M+, you'd have to trade a $3M+ contract. No one making the min helps there.

Per source, Lucas Giolito will decline the player side of his mutual option with the Red Sox. Sox now have to decide whether to make him a 1-year $22M qualifying offer.

A's 16 Early (6 days rest) 17 Giolito (4) 18 Bello (4) TB 19 Crochet (4) 20 Tolle/Harrison? (9) 21 Early (4) 22 OFF TOR 23 Giolito (5) 24 Bello (5) 25 Crochet (5) DET 26 Early (4) OR Tolle/Harrison (5) 27 Early (5) OR Tolle/Harrison (6) 28 Giolito (4) if needed 29 OFF WC 30 Crochet (4) and Bello (5) available, as is Giolito if not used 1 2

Red Sox announced Early, Giolito, Bello will start vs. the A's, skipping Tolle/Harrison.

Bello & Crochet make 2 more starts regardless, but this (1) allows Giolito to make a third, on the final day, if needed and (2) makes Crochet available for game 1 of WCS. Here's one way it could work:

The 2025 Red Sox cleanup hitters are having their weakest year in ... oh, wow.

Story's been OK there. Kristian Campbell posting a .404 OPS -- production not found -- in 53 PA doesn't help.

stathead.com/tiny/bkL0N

Jalen Beeks did it for Arizona earlier this season.

Toro spent 110 days with the team on a prorated $1M deal, meaning he'll take home ~$600k on the 2025 payroll.

He has 3+ yrs of MLB service and has been previously outrighted (Oakland, 2024), so he can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if he clears waivers.

Here's the team-controlled SP depth and projected costs for 2025-2031.

As we head towards the deadline, this goes to show there are 10+ bodies in each season, if everyone proves to be an MLB starter/contributor.

Is there a #1 /#2 SP in there below Crochet? Time to consolidate.

Here's the top 8 AL rookies by fWAR. Wilson's main edge comes from GP.

If you normalize the WAR/87g, see how Roman closes the gap (87g is also likely what he ends up playing this season). Wilson likely gets to ~132g.

I'd expect Narvaez's WAR trajectory to fade in the 2nd half.

Giolito contract update:

If under 140 IP, BOS has a $14M club opt for 2026. If over, it's a $19M mutual opt.

He's at 66.1 IP in 12 GS (5.5 IP/GS).

Boston has 70g left. If he starts every 5g, that's 14 starts.

At 6IP per, he'd reach 150.1IP

At 5IP per, he'd reach 136.1IP

😅

An updated look at where the Red Sox payroll stands after the Devers trade (in partnership with @redsoxpayroll.bsky.social ):

www.soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

Well shit

With the trade of Rafael Devers, longest tenure in the Red Sox organization belongs to Bryan Mata, who signed in Jan. 2016. Incredibly, still hasn't made his MLB debut.

He's got 1.5 years on 2017 draftees Tanner Houck & Kutter Crawford and IFAs Ceddanne Rafaela and Brayan Bello.

Yes. DFAing only removes them from the roster, not the payroll.

You owe their entire remaining salary less the prorated league minimum if they play for someone else

They're ~$16.2M over right now.

Here's a Red Sox trade savings chart, if the team decides to sell.

It displays how much the team would project to save on the CBT if certain guys are traded on 7/1, 7/8 or between 7/15-7/31 (deadline).

Amounts are prorated and added to projected bonuses earned to get total daily #s.

It's all prorated to what's left when the trade(s) occur

IF we were sellers, that would likely happen the last week of July, so we'd only see savings at ~1/3 of their collective AAVs.

That group you mentioned would net us around ~$18M in savings if we don't include any $ & we'd barely sneak under.

Started tracking bonuses differently this year. It's a more precise snapshot based on specific incentives + performance.

I made the first round of adjustments today to stay on top of a final CBT projection.

Adjusted Giolito (IP), Hendriks (IP), & Refsnyder (PA) down, and Buehler (GS) up.

If health holds and rehabs go well, Boston can have their projected A-team rotation April 24-29:

4/16 Newcomb
OFF
4/18 Dobbins
4/19 Crochet
4/20 Houck
4/21 Buehler
4/22 Bello
4/23 Newcomb/Dobbins
4/24 Crochet
4/25 Giolito/Houck
4/26 Houck/Giolito
4/27 Buehler
OFF
4/29 Bello
4/30 Crochet

It's a statistical analysis. Not a suggested actual lineup.

As Cora tweaks the lineup, here's an optimization tool from BaseballMusings.com that uses OBA and Slugging to suggest the highest runs-per-game lineup.

Take it for what it is, but it loves Campbell/Abreu in the top few spots from the results of the first 3 weeks.

Campbell AAVs, before earning any incentives:

2025 $7.5M
2026 $7.5M
2027 $7.5M
2028 $7.5M
2029 $7.5M
2030 $7.5M
2031 $7.5M
2032 $7.5M
2033 $15M ($19M salary - $4M buyout)
2024 $21M

Red Sox Payrolls

W/ the Campbell deal, 2025 CBT = ~$257.4M, ~$16M above the CBT threshold

Getting under the CBT threshold isn't really an option anymore. Sending out salary is prorated, so they'd need to shed $40-50M just to drop $16M in June/July

Early 2026 = $235M, $9M under the CBT line

Payroll: bit.ly/3WCDjp3

The Sox get a conditional option of $15M for 2032 if Crochet misses 120 consecutive days due to a significant arm injury. In the case of such an event, assuming it happened between 2026-30, his opt-out after 2030 would be voided.
If he avoids such an injury, then he gets the opt-out following 2030.

Updated 👇

Red Sox get: LHP Garrett Crochet for 7 yrs/$173.8 mil + escalators

White Sox get: C Kyle Teel (MLB No. 25), OF Braden Montgomery (MLB No. 54), INF Chase Meidroth (BOS No. 11), P Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS No. 14)

Feels much more palatable.

With Crochet, assuming...

*$22M in arbitration money
*Buehler, Giolito, and Hendriks options aren't picked up
*Bregman and Story stay

...the 2026 payroll sits at roughly $228M, or $16M below the $244M first CBT threshold for next year.

No effect on the Red Sox 2025 CBT payroll

Crochet's new contract is the 2nd-largest for a Red Sox pitcher ever, behind David Price, and the richest extension they've given out.

Red Sox 40-man starting pitching investment outlook, 2025-2031.

*Green = arbitration estimate

Opening Day Payroll: ~$249.9M, a club record.

That's ~$8.9M above the 1st CBT threshold with room to add with minimal penalties throughout the year.

This projection will fluctuate with player moves + injuries throughout the year. Looking forward to everyone following along in 2025!