Method 2 (Relative Strength) considers each team's xG based on home/away season performance. This method estimates specific W/D/L probabilities for the teams in each fixture. Useful, if we think past performance & venue matter. @leytonorientfc.bsky.social relegation probability = 7%. #LOFC
Two approaches: Method 1 (Pure Chance) ignores any knowledge we have about the relative strengths of the teams in each fixture and assumes equal W/D/L probabilities. Useful, if we think the remaining fixtures are 🏆 finals. @leytonorientfc.bsky.social relegation probability = 9%. #LOFC 🧵2/3
Which team will fill the last relegation spot in League One? With 53 fixtures left, this is an n-dimensional problem that can be solved by making some W/D/L probability assumptions and simulating each fixture at least 10,000 times, like rolling 🎲. @leytonorientfc.bsky.social #LOFC 🧵1/3
The input data uses home/away xG for each fixture, which is based on each team’s performance during the season-to-date and depends on which teams are playing one another. You could of course choose any performance period you wanted, which might introduce other biases, small data samples, etc.
Of course there is weighting plus a probability model. The model starting point is driven by pre-match home/away xG for the two teams and these depend on the relative strengths of each team. For Saturday's fixture, for example, the probabilities are Home win 61%, Draw 21%, Away win 18%.
"Orient to change name if Olympic plan succeeds"
The Daily Telegraph, Oct 5, 2012
13 years ago, Barry Hearn proposed changing Leyton Orient's name to London Orient as part of the #LOFC bid to ground-share the Olympic Stadium alongside West Ham. How would you have felt?
Why is it suspicious? There isn't a fixed outcome. The chart just shows you the mean/average estimator of final points, because it's an image that's familiar and easy to understand. The percentages give you the critical information about the relative likelihood of relegation, for the edge cases.
"Clapton Orient win at Lincoln through superior forwards"
Match report: The Morning Leader, Sep 18, 1905.
League Division Two, Sep 16, 1905, Sincil Bank
Lincoln 2:3 Clapton Orient
Leyton Orient's first meeting with Lincoln City was a rather thrilling O's victory. #LOFC
The estimates of final points are just the most likely, or average, of a range of possible outcomes, modelling 287 fixtures and how each result affects others. The percentages are there to indicate how the range of possible outcomes translate into the probabilities of relegation or survival.
Finally, in League Two, Harrogate are 70% likely to be playing in the National League next season with
Barrow more likely to join them than Newport County. Tranmere and Crawley live to fight another day. 🧵End.
In League One, it's time to say goodnight to Port Vale, Northampton and Rotherham, with Exeter 67% likely to join them. Burton, Blackpool, Wigan, Doncaster, Wimbledon and Leyton Orient cheat the axeman. #LOFC 🧵4/5
In the Championship, aside from Sheffield Wednesday, Oxford are 73% certain to go down, with Portsmouth having the edge over Leicester in staying up, as West Brom, Blackburn and Charlton escape the Grim Reaper. 🧵3/5
The Monte Carlo model uses pre-match home/away xG and a Poisson distribution to estimate W/D/L probabilities. In the top flight, Burnley and Wolves are 100% goners. Tottenham will likely survive at the the expense of West Ham, along with Nottingham Forest and Leeds. 🧵2/5
Which Premier League and EFL teams are going down this season? Sheffield Wednesday are the only confirmed relegation, but for others it's statistically already time to say goodnight. We can use a 10k Monte Carlo to simulate all 287 remaining matches (= 2.87m dice rolls). Read on to find out. 🧵1/5
Part of The Common, as it looks today.
You can download the centennial review of the Old Foresters Football Club: its involvement in the development of the game, the FA & Amateur Cups, the Corinthians, Casuals, Pegasus, Arthur Dunn Cup, Arthurian League & lots of old photos, schedules & stats.
1drv.ms/b/c/f5a65013...
Forest is the only school to have fielded a team in the FA Cup, also playing alongside The Old Foresters. The original trophy was stolen during the night of September 11-12, 1895 and never recovered.
The Common at the front of Forest School, Walthamstow, the nursery of football, where the laws of the modern game were developed. Forest Football Club, formed 1859, became a founder member of the FA in 1863, changed its name to Wanderers in 1864 and won the first FA Cup in 1872.
@leytonorientfc.bsky.social updated path to safety. #LOFC
whitchp.github.io/leyton-orient/
@leytonorientfc.bsky.social's run continues with 4W/4. #LOFC now on 48 pts and predicted 16th place finish in League One. Donny and Wigan also won at the weekend and remain hard on our heels. Probability of finishing above #21 = 98%. 5 pts from 8 games needed for guaranteed survival.
London as a football hub. Can you spot the mentions for
@leytonorientfc.bsky.social? #LOFC
footballbenchmark.com/e/blog/28466...
72 points still mathematically possible! #LOFC
✅ @leytonorientfc.bsky.social now top of the League One form table for the last three matches
✅ First ever win at Plough Lane
✅ Seven points from guaranteed safety with nine games remaining
✅ 95% probability of survival
#LOFC
I've built an online interactive widget showing @leytonorientfc.bsky.social's path to safety. The widget has 3 inputs you can change – current points, target points and games remaining. The colour coded paths update automatically. Click the link and enjoy. 👇 #LOFC leytonorient.netlify.app
@leytonorientfc.bsky.social have met @afcwimbledon1889.bsky.social (old and new clubs) six times at Plough Lane/Kingsmeadow in all competitions since 1979 and have never beaten The Dons at their home ground. #LOFC
It looks that way. ⚽️
@afcwimbledon1889.bsky.social appear to be very clever – they commit the fourth highest number of fouls per match in the division, yet pick up the fewest bookings per foul. @leytonorientfc.bsky.social play Wimbledon at Plough Lane in League One on Tuesday. #LOFC
public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
Which teams play the cleanest & dirtiest football in League One?
@leytonorientfc.bsky.social have committed the most fouls, while @pafc.co.uk have picked up the most bookings. Cardiff &
@ntfc.bsky.social have the fewest fouls & bookings, respectively. #LOFC
public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
Three points vs. Peterborough and the first home win in League One since Jan 17 helped @leytonorientfc.bsky.social continue its escape from the relegation zone. Currently two places from safety, a 10k simulation of all remaining games predicts an 86% probability of a #LOFC finish above #21.
A perfect result for @leytonorientfc.bsky.social: 3 pts at Stevenage together with Wigan's loss at Plymouth yanks #LOFC out of the relegation zone with a two-place safety margin. Simulating all remaining matches 10k times predicts a 19th place finish on 53 pts. Survival probability = 74%.