Right, that's why I see the stag risk too. You do bring up a good point, though, as far as netting out. The scenario that isn't priced in is if they perfectly net out and create an unholy Goldilocks situation. It would be the most hated regime ever, and would rip faces. Funny.
They released a 5 point guideline today, but it's a bit of a shitpost. Point 5 is "Write us a check." 1-4 is, if I remember, lower tariffs, buying US military hardware/boosting defense spending, build factories in the US, and stopping unfair trading practices like currency manipulation.
Well obviously the entire system needs reform as well. That's just personally where I like the focus to be. Your point also ties into other major issues like antitrust reform, and the need to ban political bribery and protect the core democratic institutions from money.
The idea of a reset with a fresh start for each new generation and a focus on climbing up and economic mobility isn't as anti-American as it may first seem, imo, and frankly more palatable than high business tax rates and such.
My favor a strong focus on the death tax. I think that's *by far* the best window to address systemic wealth inequality. I think that culture would have to shift slightly, but I actually don't think that it's at odds with American ideals when compared to heavy taxation and some other areas.
The topic reminds me of an enjoyable This American Life episode (recommended): www.thisamericanlife.org/806/transcript
The more time spent cranking on Nvidia hardware, the better the answer is. I can see why he likes these new model iterations!
You would think that people would realize by now that implied outcomes derived from futures is not a good predictor of price in the future.
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SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!!
Embody is the one that's up with the aeron to me. The design is aging pretty timelessly and it still looks futuristic to my eyes.
It's fine, but it's extremely important to get the right size. The design is undeniably iconic too.
In*
Wow.
Then again, understandable considering the capital destruction and the leveraged short funds. Looks like UVIX
If I remember, it's currently 10:1...
I forget who it was that provided the data - recent guest on Market Market Huddle who had it in his chart book - the ratio of flows into levered long vs levered short ETFs is an interesting froth indicator. He found looking at total margin debt to be less useful than it was and subbed in this stat.
Policy uncertainty certainly seems under-priced to me, considering the incoming year. A setup for a biggish vol shock is also fairly decent in the near-mid term, and that could kickstart some bigger mechanical selling from systematics. QBIT (sic) is fun to watch though.
With so many traditional forces at play, it's tempting to just look past the speculative froth. If one does, then the left tail drivers or quite normal things like a downgrade in corporate profitability outlook, rising unemployment, rate policy changes, trade policy, etc.
Hedge fund net and gross leverage, high. Vol control and CTA exposure. Sentiment, especially around future expectations for stock prices, extremely high. Earnings outlooks. High. Option-driven flows due to upset chasing. Strong. Marginal buyers remaining. Getting low.
Those are just exclusive microcaps. Dozens of those pop off every day, it just happens that this is a compelling narrative. More concerning our church like Walmart or Costco, maybe even Apple, where the relentless inflow is arguably causing a passive driven squeeze.
Hedge fund leverage - JPM Prime
Some people want to be fooled. whether they know it or not is open for debate.
It's easier than genuinely finding a huge, right-tail reward in a field where there is a flood of smart capital looking to do the same thing.
What part of the most legendary slide in an investor slide deck of all time isn't clear?
I'm more bothered that his name is somehow vaguely yet unmistakably backwards at the same time.
It's an indicator of inclusion in popular starter packs and little else. Even more arbitrary than celebrity status.
"So there isn’t a need for them to de-risk per se. However, it looks like crowding performance could be peaking again, which doesn’t bode well for crowded longs going forward" (JPM pos intelligence team)
I think that means just take off your pants and leave the shirt and tie on.
Downside protection is notably cheap here.