Poll Analysis: More in Common 24th of March – 10th of April 2026 An outlier pollster for the SNP, Greens (both low) and Lib Dems (notably high) nonetheless still translates, via the SNP's constituency dominance, into an expected Pro-Independence majority in the chamber.

Poll Analysis: More in Common 24th of March - 10th of April 2026

Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 57
Labour ~ 18
Reform ~ 18
Conservative ~ 13
Lib Dem ~ 12
Green ~ 11

A long fieldwork period and given that's tended to be the case for More in Common, one does wonder why they didn't wait until after nominations closed and properly accounted for Greens not contesting most constituencies, rather than adding another junk Green constituency figure to the narrative!

More in Common continue to be the outlier in terms of SNP support (much lower than any others), and the best for the Lib Dems. They're the only firm to have Lib Dems ahead of Greens (albeit within margin of error), though this is also the best share Greens have had with otherwise low-Green pollster

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 57 SNP, 5 Conservative, 3 Labour, 6 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 1 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 8 Conservative, 15 Labour, 6 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 17 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 13.1 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 13, Conservative 8, Labour 36, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform UK 11. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 12 below 5, 19 between 5 and 10, 35 between 10 and 20, 7 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Lib Dem, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Reform UK, Highlands and Islands Lib Dem, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Labour, West Reform UK.

More In Common 24 Mar - 10 Apr seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 57 (-4 / -6); 38
Lab ~ 18 (+1 / -3); 23
RUK ~ 18 (+2 / +18); 22
Con ~ 13 (+2 / -18); 16
LD ~ 12 (-2 / +8); 16
Grn ~ 11 (+1 / +1); 14

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

New Holyrood poll, More in Common 24 Mar - 10 Apr (vs 30 Jan - 10 Feb):

List:
SNP ~ 27% (-4)
Lab ~ 17% (+1)
RUK ~ 17% (+1)
Con ~ 13% (+1)
LD ~ 12% (nc)
Grn ~ 11% (+2)

Const:
SNP ~ 32% (-1)
Lab ~ 19% (nc)
RUK ~ 18% (nc)
Con ~ 12% (+1)
LD ~ 11% (nc)
Grn ~ 7% (+1); doesn't account for candidates

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 11-16 (+ South Region) #16: Angus North and Mearns #15: Dumfriesshire #14: Aberdeenshire West #13: Moray #12: Galloway and West Dumfries #11: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross Plus South Scotland Region

Lunchtime read: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 11-16 (+ South Region)

A look at 6 marginal constituencies: Angus North and Mearns; Dumfriesshire; Aberdeenshire West; Moray; Galloway and West Dumfries; and Caithness Sutherland and Ross. Plus, the South Scotland region.

Bluesky 🤝 QGIS on my new laptop*
Having a very, very, very unhappy day

Check back tomorrow for the BBS numbers on the MIC poll!

*I didn't deliberately buy a new laptop 3 weeks out from election, this was meant to be a post-election purchase, until the old one decided it was the ideal time to die

How the Holyrood election works with Ballot Box Scotland The rules for a Holyrood election are slightly different to the rules for electing MPs to Westminster.

Had my lunchtime read post already scheduled by how about a lunchtime watch as well? I mean perhaps less for some of you nerds who know all this anyway, but I sat down a few weeks ago to talk through how the election works

SP26 Party Profile: Reform UK New kids on the block Reform UK are guaranteed to end up with a big group at Holyrood, but it’s unclear whether they will win constituencies or live up to polling overall.

Lunchtime read: Party Profile: Reform UK

The all but guaranteed new entrants to Holyrood, Reform UK have finally broken through in Scotland after previous failures to launch (including by UKIP). But how did things look for them a month out from the election?

The system is intended to deliver proportionality according to the list vote. What people intend when they vote has absolutely no bearing on what drives proportionality. In addition, all evidence points to the vast majority of Green voters being exactly that: Green voters.

Holyrood Hub: Scottish Parliament Election 2026 Ballot Box Scotland’s full coverage ahead of the May 2026 Scottish Parliament Election.

Oh sorry I was giving that more as context for why the Greens are feeling bold in this seat. That exact figure they have quoted will not be available as it will have come from the snapshot they took of my model on the quoted date, but current version on map here. ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds Bonus Round 1 (Near Marginals + Mid and Fife Region) #17: Perthshire North #18: Edinburgh Central #21: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse #22: Rutherglen and Cambuslang #26: Uddingston and Bellshill Plus Mid Scotland and Fife Region

My website is public so not uncommon for parties to reference it over the years! ballotbox.scot/sp26-battleg...

I think you should dissolve your entire polling firm and find a new job if you publish something like this, to be honest.

SP26: Central Scotland and Lothians West Region Preview Everything you need to know for the Central Scotland and Lothians West region ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Lunchtime read: Central Scotland and Lothians West Region Preview

Everything you need to know about the Central Scotland and Lothians West region in this election: boundary changes, 2021 results, and who the candidates are.

SP26: The SNP didn’t “break” the voting system in 2011… but this time they might The idea that the SNP “broke” the Scottish Parliament voting system in 2011 is a myth that won’t die, but it might finally come to pass in 2026.

Lunchtime read: The SNP didn’t “break” the voting system in 2011… but this time they might

With the election looming, I'm going to re-share some of the BBS analysis up until now. First up: why didn't the SNP's 2011 majority constitute "breaking" the system, and why might even minority do so now?

Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 23rd of March – 8th of April 2026 Scepticism about fancy MRP polling aside and just using their vote share figures, the SNP are within touching distance of a majority whilst the Conservatives are near-death.

Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 23rd of March - 8th of April 2026 (finally caught up!)

Holyrood Seats Projection:
SNP ~ 64
Reform ~ 20
Labour ~ 15
Green ~ 13
Lib Dem ~ 10
Conservative ~ 7

Note: These figures differ substantially from YouGov's own, and I remain slightly funny on MRPs generally

Checking in on Hungarian election results on a polling district by polling district basis, yet another country that can apparently collate and publish localised data with ease in a way the UK finds impossible vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/egye...

Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of March – 1st of April 2026 What Labour attempted to convince the media was a good poll for them would still be their worst ever Holyrood result and offer Anas Sarwar no path to Bute House.

Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of March - 1st of April 2026 (still playing catchup!)

Holyrood seat projection:
SNP ~ 61
Labour ~ 20
Reform ~15
Green ~ 12
Conservative ~ 11
Lib Dem ~ 10

Independence:
Yes ~ 52%
No ~ 48%

BallotBoxScot's profile - Liberapay Ballot Box Scotland is already the leading Twitter source for all things elections in Scotland, but I need your help to keep growing!

Do you enjoy Ballot Box Scotland output? Find it useful in navigating the tricky waters of Scottish politics? Somehow have some spare cash lying around? Not already donating? Support always very gratefully received and with less than 4 weeks until the election, BBS is working my fingers to the bone!

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 26th – 31st of March 2026 An absolute disaster of a poll for Labour, and the first to ever suggest the Greens could be the largest opposition party. Take that latter idea with a whole heap of salt, of course!

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 26th - 31st of March 2026 (playing catchup!)

Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 63
Green ~ 17
Reform ~ 15
Labour ~ 14
Conservative ~ 12
Lib Dem ~ 8

Independence:
No ~ 50%
Yes ~ 50%

SP26 Party Profile: Scottish National Party The big beasts of Scottish politics, by rights the SNP should be headed to a bruising election. Instead, Labour's total collapse has opened the door to a big SNP win and potentially even a majority.

SP26 Party Profile: Scottish National Party

A party on track to lose a quarter of its support should be losing loads of seats. Thanks to Labour's implosion, the SNP aren't going to. A good result, in this context? A majority - possible, but hard. A poor result? Anything below 60 seats.

To be clear is what you are actually arguing that 10% of the list vote is not credible and this poll has over-egged that? Because the Lib Dems won 7.4% in M&F with 5.1% nationally in 2021, so with 10% nationally they would absolutely get a vote share proportionally due 2 MSPs overall in M&F.

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 64 SNP, 1 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 8 Conservative, 16 Labour, 4 Lib Dem, 12 Green, 0 Alba, 16 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 14.5 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 8, Conservative 9, Labour 36, Lib Dem 4, Green 3, Reform UK 13. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 5 below 5, 12 between 5 and 10, 33 between 10 and 20, 23 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Reform UK, Mid and Fife Lib Dem, North East Conservative, South Reform UK, West Green.

YouGov 23 Mar - 8 Apr seat projection run through usual BBS model, rather than YouGov's MRP figs (vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 64 (+1); 46
RUK ~ 20 (+20); 26
Lab ~ 15 (-6); 19
Grn ~ 13 (+3); 17
LD ~ 10 (+6); 12
Con ~ 7 (-24); 9

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Every time I'm like "this time, THIS TIME I have made NO ERRORS, it's PERFECT"

Oh BUM

It's Reform! The actual seat indicators on these maps are automated so they are spot on unless I've forgotten to load in the appropriate data!

(Staying on Greens, an example of my MRP scepticism here is 3x Green MSPs in overall 15 seat Glasgow with SNP on 8/8 constituencies, but only 2x Green MSPs in overall 16 seat Edinburgh with SNP on 7/9 constituencies? That's a very specific "doesn't quite pass the smell test" outcome imo!)

Conservatives notably low and Reform high relative to other polls in the current average, so be aware of that!

On Greens though, note that they've got them at 2% in constituency: that aligns perfectly with what my model was giving from chopping Greens out of most constituencies!

I remain of the view that MRPs may be very slightly too clever an approach to projections, but unlike the other two so far YouGov are an established firm, so can at least use their voting intention to drive the normal BBS model, which gives a slightly different result to their own.

New Scottish Parliament MRP poll, YouGov 23 Mar - 8 Apr (vs 2021):

List:
SNP ~ 30% (-9.7)
RUK ~ 19% (+19)
Lab ~ 15% (-3)
Grn ~ 13% (+5)
LD ~ 10% (+5)
Con ~ 8% (-15)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 41% (-7)
RUK ~ 19% (+19)
Lab ~ 18% (-4)
LD ~ 10% (+3)
Con ~ 8% (-14)
Grn ~ 2% (+1)