I think the pendulum as moved from RFM Maj to LAB Maj over the last six months but not by that much so it could go either way. I would say RFM will get around 26-34 councillors, I hope I'm wrong but that's the way it feels, as I've said Labour should bag the rest. But the SOPN is a bit ominous. 15/x

Reform are likely to do well, not as well as they would have done six months ago but fairly well, there are some parts which should be impervious to them - Smethwick, West Brom proper, Bearwood but others may not be. But on the other hand some councillors may have enough personal votes 14/x

So with that Abbey exception and something coming out of a crazy split - although there's less room for crazy splits here in Sandwell. The only other one would be the Ind in Tipton Green who is fairly populate - he's very, ahem, Reform adjacent and he might be able to cause a double split. 13/x

There will probably be no Greens, very few Sandwell wards really suit the Greens, the one that does Abbey, may be a possibility for them and their defector from Cradley Heath is standing there - he might find it a bit too Brummagem. The other is sticking in Great Bridge - brave soul. 12/x

So what's going to happen. Lets get things out of the way, there probably be no Tories or LibDems on the council, the LibDems bastion in Great Barr is long gone and the Tories will be badly impacted by Rfm, their own internal and an unhelpful boundary change in their old heartland 11/x

There are full slates for Con, Lab, Rfm and Grn. Well done the Grn I can think of few areas with less promising terrain than Sandwell. The LDm have 15 candidates. There are 5 Ind, 2 of which are councillors restanding. There are 2 for TUSC, 1 Advance UK (a sitting councillor) and 1 for Yeshua. 10/x

There have also been some name changes, a couple of which are just the LGBCE flexing as usual, but I will applaud their change of name from Abbey to Bearwood along with some small boundary changes. 9/x

There have been boundary changes - which is why there are all ups - many of them are small and inscrutable unless you know the terrain very well. A couple of them are a bit odd. But the main effect is that there is one Wednesbury ward rather than two and some significant changes in the south 8/x

At least the leadership has remained fairly stable after a very wobbly period between 2019-2021 where the council had six different leaders in two years - one of which Rajbir Singh will be making an appearance when I do Birmingham as he's standing there for Reform. 7/x

The Con in Princes End has joined Advance UK, two councillors defected to the Greens, one Con in Great Bridge, one Lab in Cradley Heath and Old Hill. Two Labour councillors lost the whip after a fracas in Old Hill and the Tory who joined Labour, he resigned just before the election 6 /x

After the 2024 elections, Sandwell had 64 Labour councillors, 5 Conservatives and 3 others - one of the others was a newly elected independent in Tipton Green, one was a Tory who later joined Labour and one has left Labour to be a left Indo. This being Sandwell, the position has altered 5/x

Sandwell has also flirted with the far right, the BNP won a small number of seats in the mid-nawties, UKIP got 21% of the vote borough wide in 2014 but only got one ward out of it. Some of the Tories in some parts have been somewhat robust. No one has any illusions that Reform wont do well here. 4/x

However over the years some of the parliamentary seats have looked a little dicky and of course in 2019, the Conservatives won the West Brom seats, Labour held Warley and the Tories did have a little municipal comeback in 2021 because for a period Sandwell was 100% Labour between 2018 & 2021 3/x

One thing it has jelled on is that it has been very good to the Labour party - apart from a brief period from 1978-1979 it has always been majority Labour control and to be honest, the last time Labour looked remotely threatened at a municipal level was in 1992. 2 / x

OK, so now its time for Sandwell, that borough that probably shouldn't exist and that no one really likes. Parts of Sandwell have strong local identities West Bromwich, Tipton, Oldbury, Wednesbury, Great Barr but they haven't jelled that well together over the years. 1 / x

They had two more attempts with their exciting propellant selection before that. The L1 design was wild.

Local delicacy

Pint of Butty Bach to go with lunch - which is be, ahem, a local delicacy which I dare not name or some Americans will probably start.

Some businesses will try and do that.

I even find this when you occasionally run into a hotel with a "free" minibar. I'll still go and get room supplies asap.

British Chinese food does.

Did that a few times at ABZ before 2001, once managed to get through to boarding when I arrived 20 mins before departure.

Never got near it again and I have no travel now am advised to not fly and have no status with any airline and just a lifetime status with Hilton. But it was a nice two years whilst it lasted.

Anyway, with a wedding in HKG where I spent some of the inheritance on a first class ticket I suddenly found myself at the end of the year a couple of hundred points short of the LH Black card, so I went to ZRH at twixtmas. And the black card gives you access to the First Class Lounges and Terminal.

Well, it was more by luck than judgement. I used to fly a lot for work in the old job and was usually an LH Senator (Gold card holder) between work travel and a trip to see my brother in Australia. But during the period when my parents died, I ended up having to visit SYD three times in that period.

The only airport to fly from is the Frankfurt First Class Terminal where they take you by car to your aircraft when its ready and where the security line might be one other person at most.

So if we assume 6-12 Tories, 10-14 WCI & other Indos, 0-2 Lab, then everything else is Reform which is just about enough to give them a majority for a few months before they shed too many councillors. 12/12

The Botts should have at least a chance as holding on as Indos in Darlaston S, they were Indos before they joined Labour. Paul more than Christine. I'm not sure how much of Citizen Pete's following has got into the new Harden, Goscote & Ryecroft with him, but let's assume its enough. 11/x

Similarly, Labour hold Willenhall (formerly Willenhall S) by higher margins that they should demographically, one of that trio is standing down but outside of mathematical miracles in Palfrey, it may be their last best hope. 10/x

However, Total Labour Death is not just feasible, it's entirely plausible although WCI vs Indo action in some of the Asian majority wards such as Pleck may give space for a couple of Labour to squeeze through. 9/x