Sixers and Phillies vs. Mets and Knicks

coughing baby vs. Coughing baby

Just want to state that Zohran and I are fans of Arsenal, the Mets and the Knicks. So you should feel bad for us.

average Anglophone leader in the 2020s

There has already been at least $160M spent on this race, mostly from Tom Steyer. This is a great use of time and resources.

this is a Ponzi scheme: CA-Gov creates polls and leads to interest, it causes people to donate money, the candidates buy polls and ads with the money, it creates more interest 🔄

New Zealand is currently undergoing

anti-incumbent wave + Trump ruining everything for the right-wing in an Anglophone country

that's two things!

*four

Who would win a Becerra vs. Steyer election? Unironically think that’s as close to 50/50 as a Dem vs. Dem race could be

I think it’s maybe half true, but conservatives don’t read the WSJ (they don’t read at all), there are def more nonwhite Republicans than the Japanese would think, some other details.

Yo we seriously got 5 polls of CA-Gov since I sent this for days ago. Georgia: none.

From 2024!

The sushi one has to be the most wrong, *everybody* has sushi now, even in random suburbs of non ”cosmopolitan” regions, classic Japanese arrogance

That Japanese cartoon trying to compare and contrast D vs R (and getting it somewhat wrong) always gets me thinking

this country is profoundly weird

This is Presidential vote margin by year, with the X axis being population density presented exponentially. Democrats peaked in urban areas in 2016, and even did worse there in 2020. This was another problem for Democrats in 2024, and one of the main reason why Harris lost.

We are at 10 polls in the last 20 days for the California governor primary! That's not enough! I want hourly updates on if Matt Mahan has 4% or 5% of the vote!

We should be abolishing baseball

funny that Stevens ended up being the moderate consolidation despite being...kinda mid electorally?

Carney did see a small approval decline; it went from +28 in February to +25. Probably why he's gone on a recent media blitz, needs to justify what they're doing to the public.

The vast majority of NDP voters, for some reason: "I love when my MPs and Conservative MPs defect to Mark Carney!"

Angus Reid polled "should Poilievre stay as leader?" They're finding a 23pt shift to "Replace" among CPC voters👀. Favorables also went down among CPC.

He remains -27 on their poll with the electorate overall.

angusreid.org/poilievre-fa...

Why the ‘Governator’ could derail Prop 50 Arnold Schwarzenegger may not play a central role himself in the campaign against Proposition 50. But he’s giving opponents plenty of material to work with as they craft TV ads.

That said, if there’s one state that pundit brain should work, it’s Virginia.

But Dems do this panic all the time, there was a politico article that thought Arnold going against redistricting meant Prop 50 was in trouble.

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

My prediction for VA redistricting is Yes +8 or so

tbh I think the upside is for Yes, mostly because pundits are repeatedly gigawrong on how consolidated the Dem base is

turnout is going to be as high as 2025 governor

low-key, I didn't vote in the 2024 primaries at all...(registered in Pat Ryan's district that year).

Moar California governor polling!!!!

The end result, in this mid-2025 sample, you see the Republicans still dominating the populist quadrant (one could even call them swing voters!)...but many of them are now likelier to defect back to Dems.

Dems have a huge base now, but it's not enough.

they love voting more than they love breathing (laudatory)

w/the Echelon quadrants, you see where Harris 2024 campaign went wrong. The debate/moderating/Liz Cheney/etc. achieved what it wanted. In exits, Harris won indies and flipped more conservatives.

But that wing has been in decline, econ populism was the way to go.

echeloninsights.com/insights/in-...

This explains why Ken Paxton is favored against Cornyn in the runoff. MAGA is a lot more high propensity then any other vote

For Dems, Crockett lost the electability argument and it may have cost her the primary

I find the Bluesky Left’s ability to turn out for every single election extremely endearing. I’m unhealthy obsessed with elections and I still skip uncontested or landslide primaries. it’s pretty rare to have a group this committed to voting!

(dark blue on the bottom of the Harris voter chart)