www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/22/04/2...

What does this mean for #democracy support?

👉 Invest in local infrastructure for pro-democracy financial mobilization that doesn't route through regime-captured institutions,
👉 Think seriously about how to legally shield opposition figures.

2️⃣ Tisza's independent financial mobilization. As we have argued elsewhere with Way and Levitsky, opposition under autocracy is structurally impossible without independent financial resources.

1️⃣ Péter #Magyar's legal immunity as an MEP. The regime could not neutralize him. Our work with @lucanway.bsky.social Levitsky & Talebirad shows that legal harassment of opposition is the most common type of autocratization event.

A quote from the text. Most of these explanations are after the fact or secondary at best.

Don't draw the wrong lessons from the #Hungarian #election.

I know the hot takes are piling up, and I promise this isn't another one. It's a worry about explanations circulating. Most accounts I've read feel post-hoc.

Read more on my op-ed ‪@globalpolicy.bsky.social‬ ‪@idos-research.bsky.social‬

Opinion

Don’t Draw the Wrong Lessons from the Hungarian Election

www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/22/04/2...

@semuhi.bsky.social argues in @globalpolicy.bsky.social that existing explanations for the opposition’s success in #Hungary are after the fact and secondary. Without Magyar’s legal immunity and financial mobilization, this victory would be impossible.

📲 www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/22/04/2...

That and this being VIP. Very rare indeed.

Good case. But even then, it was Deputy State Sec leading the negotiations, not the VP. Hence the rarity of this one.

❓❓US foreign policy folks: is this as rare as I think it is?

#Oman facilitated the JCPOA negotiations, but those were secret backchannels, not high-level public diplomacy with the VP at the table. The #Doha Agreement with the Taliban comes to mind, too, but Qatar's role there was more host than mediator. What's happening in Islamabad seems different, right?

islamabad talks

The #Islamabad talks seem quite unique to me. The US almost always serves as the mediator in the conflicts that I know and study, brokering deals at Camp David, etc. I can't recall many cases where the US was the party needing a mediator.

The Personalist Global Order When individual whims drive great-power policy.

In a personalist global system, the most important decisions “rest on the whims of men who have systematically discarded anyone willing to tell them no,” write @seva.bsky.social and @semuhi.bsky.social.

States across the Global South will be seeking partners who offer cooperation wihout domination, and middle powers can establish such coalitions around different issues.

Is principled pragmatism possible, or is it just pure contradiction? Is it realistic to expect middle powers to shape the next global order?

If these questions interest you, check out my recent op-ed published on @table.media.

table.media/forum/tablef...

@idos-research.bsky.social

Carney’s speech at #Davos may be bookmarked as a defining moment marking the end of the liberal world order as we know it, and a new #GlobalOrder looming on the horizon, with stronger emphasis on “value-based realism.”

Analysis by @semuhi.bsky.social in @table.media: table.media/forum/tablef...

We need all hands on deck. It's time for strategic partnerships with #businesses.

#CorporateResponsibility #FIMI #CivilSociety

cc: @idos-research.bsky.social

People skeptical of business tend to fixate on Big Tech. But the private sector is much more than Silicon Valley. During my travels across the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow, I found companies discreetly creating plans to protect their immigrant workers, for instance.

#Davos is over. Participants are calling it one of the gloomiest editions yet. Sessions like "Is #Democracy in Trouble?" drew packed rooms of anxious corporate leaders.

My latest reflections on Davos for @devex.com: the private sector can be democracy's ally.

www.devex.com/news/can-the...

Unlike the Cold War's relatively stable competition, this system now rests on the whims of three men who've discarded anyone willing to tell them no.

cc: @idos-research.bsky.social

For the first time since the 1930s, three nuclear superpowers are all governed by personalist leaders, who concentrate power, and operate in echo chambers. On @foreignaffairs.com, @seva.bsky.social and I discuss how personalism is reshaping the world order.

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Personalist Global Order When individual whims drive great-power policy.

In a personalist global system, the most important decisions “rest on the whims of men who have systematically discarded anyone willing to tell them no,” write @seva.bsky.social and @semuhi.bsky.social.

Can the private sector help safeguard democracy? The answer is yes Opinion: In order for civil society groups to successfully leverage the private sector’s potential in uplifting democratic principles, they must learn to speak the sector’s language.

In order for civil society groups to successfully leverage the private sector’s potential in uplifting democratic principles, they must learn to speak the sector’s language, writes @semuhi.bsky.social of @idos-research.bsky.social

#opinion #globaldevelopment #privatesector

the top 10 essays of 2025

Our article was featured as one of the top 10 most-read articles on the @jodemocracy.bsky.social. Looking for a good holiday read? Interested in the role of business in democracy protection? Here's one for you 👇

www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/can...

@lucanway.bsky.social

These findings challenge optimistic assumptions about digitalization and democracy. E-government tools can serve authoritarian legitimation, but their effects are more complex than expected.

Our survey experiment reveals a paradox: propaganda through these platforms boosts regime support and compliance (even among opposition voters) BUT benefits accrue to institutions, not the strongman leader personally.

New publication alert! 🚨

Can digital tools connecting citizens directly to the executive strengthen autocracy?

doi.org/10.23661/idp...

w/ @idos-research.bsky.social @avonschiller.bsky.social

As a member of the Sounding Board for this initiative, I'm really excited and looking forward to seeing the results! Apply if you have an initiative to spotlight for public #communication as a force for #inclusion and cooperation in today’s polarized world!
@undp.org @idos-research.bsky.social

And the @ec.europa.eu is planning to engage with businesses to form coalitions for democracy, encourage private investment in independent media, and help demonetize #disinformation campaigns.

This resonates well with our ongoing work on #corporate civic responsibility in safeguarding #democracy!

The Shield represents a significant step forward for protecting European democracies, with the new European Centre for Democratic Resilience, updated crisis protocols, and stronger frameworks against #FIMI.

The European Democracy Shield is officially out!

I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social.

🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.