Hi Helen,

I was a long time fan of Paddy Ashdown

but I could not bring myself to vote Lib Dem when they refused to price plastic bags at 10p instead of 5

perhaps conspiratorial of me but i wonder how much a certain generation of scottish labour person is still keeping in their hearts the million quid she gave the anti independence campaign

a man in a blue jacket stands in front of a green tiled wall ALT: a man in a blue jacket stands in front of a green tiled wall

WEDNESDAY?

The MRP modelling also accounts for two other important factors: turnout and people who say "don't know". The turnout modelling in our MRP is based mostly on respondents' demographics, and which groups were most likely to vote at previous elections, rather than how likely respondents themselves say they are to vote. This addresses the problem of more people in polls saying they will vote than actually do in reality (a persistent problem that has contributed to industry-wide polling error in the past). In practice, this means it assumes higher turnout amongst older groups. The MRP model also reallocates people who say "don't know" when asked how they would vote, effectively reallocating people who say they don't know on the assumption they vote in the same way as other people who share their demographics and past politics. This corrects skews caused by people who probably will vote, but don't yet know who for. For example, in reality men and women are equally likely to vote, but women are more likely to say don't know in polls. Not reallocating don't knows would result in headline figures based on too few women.

This might as well say 'vibes'

Feels like double counting to say 'older people are more conservative and more likely to vote, which favours Con', while also saying 'older people say they're more likely to vote for a single issue insurgent party, which we take at face value, favouring Reform'.

too many theres

too many seems there, aren't there?

YouGov seem to have lost a lot of credibility, in the last few weeks. Their MRP seems to behave very oddly.

Can Stonewall Mark II put trans wars behind it? New chair talks of consensus but she’ll have a tough job unpicking charity’s bullying stance Kathleen Stock In the history of gay rights, there have always been fearless souls willing to face down mobs of pitchfork-wielding fanatics, but perhaps none so brave as Kezia Dugdale, incoming chair of trustees at Stonewall. In an interview with The Guardian this weekend, the former Scottish Labour leader did the unthinkable and praised JK Rowling.

If you had any doubts that Stonewall is a danger to trans people, here is Kathleen Stock praisng them in the Times.

"When the gay rights cause first got going, the ideal was toleration"

Senior Labour figures charged after criminal investigation into alleged vote rigging Exclusive: Four people charged after criminal investigation into irregularities surrounding Labour candidate selection process for Croydon East

Hahahaahhaha
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Nah, it's because he's a panicky incompetent with authoritarian instincts.

Starmer is a bad liar on multiple levels. Firstly, it's generally immediately obvious when he lies. Secondly, he lies about things he doesn't need to lie about. Thitdly, he chooses lies to tell that have immediate and obvious consequences that are laser guided to bite him in the arse.

"Rainy Road" - my oil painting

Pretty funny that Sir Keir Starmer was installed as an establishment continuity candidate and now he's accidentally grassing out the establishment all over the place.

Can't wait for Olly Robbins's explosive select committee evidence to make absolutely no difference because Sir Keir Starmer has no shame or self awareness and the Parliamentary Labour Party is completely dysfunctional.

the hitlerian victims of communism foundation on twitter: USSR pin awarded to farmers for "Mastery of Cannabis Breeding". Are these your "Marxist" values??

happy 4/20

Trans people are exhausted.

Non-stop fighting, writing, documenting, archiving, pleading, begging, hiding, crying and more.

Exhausted.

I have been considering similar tbh.

a man in a blue and white striped shirt is standing in a hallway with 4hd written on the bottom of the screen Alt: Come Dine With Me 'what a sad little life' guy

Absolutely not

It's easy to forget Keir Starmer is the most hated Prime Minister in history because he is so competent and charismatic

Starmer out doesn't equal Farage in, but many no longer see Farage as worse—maybe something to reflect on? Also, how is it a witch hunt? Don't you want to know why the country is so badly run? Don't you want us to figure out what we need to do to change it? Are you as incurious as Sir Keir Starmer?

Any day now

Sir Keir Starmer looking terrified and gesturing towards his own chest as if to say 'what? me?'

Sir Keir Starmer looks like he's about to be reeled onto the dancefloor by a hen do.

Idea for a gritty re-imagining of The Emperor's New Clothes, Lynn: Set in contemporary Britain—the crowd turn on the boy, beat him to a pulp, everyone just carries on.

Sir Keir Starmer and Liz Truss pretending to be humans at Big Liz's funeral

Itchy and Scratchy with Poochie leaving the frame

In the end, I think the Labour Party will just tell us he died on the way back to his home planet.

I used to go out with someone who had an iguana. It had to be fed live food so every morning they'd give it a load of live crickets.

Sometimes, one would find a little corner to hide and survive for ages, albeit cowering in terror and slowly starving to death.

Anyway, Sir Keir Starmer is still PM.

Sir Keir Starmer has manufactured a situation where this is the only sentence he can utter with any credibility:

"I like Coldplay."

Sir Keir Starmer looking like he'd shatter into a million pieces if you tapped him on the head with a toffee hammer.

He looks like he'd shatter into a million pieces if you tapped him on the head with a toffee hammer.

I meant copy and paste the link

Panel 1) All the books say to not sleep next to you Panel 2) They say to try to get you to sleep in your own bed Panel 3) to teach you independence Panel 4) I remember the books as I lie here next to you Panel 5) on the fold out mattress in your room Panel 6) Next to your bed Where you are not sleeping Panel 7) And at first I think I have failed Panel 8) but then You cuddle up to me Panel 9) And your tiny hand grabs on to my jumper Panel 10) And you smell like play-doh and cotton buds Panel 11) And I think One day you will not want me here next to you Panel 12) One day you will want to sleep at your friends houses To sleep at your girlfriends (or boyfriends) houses To stay out all night Panel 13) You will smell of aftershave and leather and your own life And that will be great Panel 14) You must live your own life, of course you must That is the whole point Panel 15) But for now You smell of play-doh and cotton buds Panel 16) And we are both Exactly where we need to be.

Nap Comix #395

Oh no I made myself cry

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