Economen eisen andere begrotingsaanpak: ‘Kijk naar de flexi-jobs. Dat is op zoveel manieren slecht, inefficiënt beleid’ Kevin Spiritus en Willem Sas maken deel uit van een groep van vijftig (!) economen die de regering-De Wever oproepen meer discipline aan de dag te leggen bij de begrotingsopmaak. Een uitzonderlijk ini...

Interview met De Morgen, samen me @willemsas.bsky.social
www.demorgen.be/nieuws/econo...

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Very interesting and timely paper. The authors find that "industrial policies lead to trade surpluses if the government pursues an unbalanced policy mix, such that domestic demand does not rise as much as supply. These surpluses are absorbed by the rest...
bw.bse.eu/wp-content/u...

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My letter in the Economist pushes back on its take on Europe and the second China shock.

The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin.

Pleased they published it.

So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have.

How so? Short thread:

Should give serious pause to those who want euro or EU exits.

But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.

@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social

1. Clampdown on benefit cheats!
2. Clampdown on benefit cheats doesn’t work.
3. Blitz on red tape!
4. Blitz on red tape doesn’t work.
5. Go to 1.

Currently we’re between 3 and 4. I’m confident we’ll be back at 1 by Christmas.

In other words, the whole legal and political hassle of taking the money from Euroclear (via an EU bond), and handing the money to Ukraine could be avoided by just issuing an EU bond, handing *that* money to Ukraine, and servicing it from the returns on Euroclear's assets.

📢We are hiring at ISEG!

2 Assistant Professor Positions in Economics (any field)
More info: econjobmarket.org/positions/11...

Get in touch if you have any questions and join us in beautiful Lisbon! 🇵🇹

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New paper out with a blueprint for a proper European industrial policy in the automotive sector.

The urgent issue is to offset geopolitical demand shocks - coordinated EV subsidies of the big four (FR FR ES IT) could cover 70% of the EU market.

Will tweet more later :)

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Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12

Mackintosh house up at Glasgow Uni. The front door is several feet off the ground with access being via the adjoining Hunterian

Helpfully I explained to some pointing tourists that Glaswegians had much longer legs back in the day

Imagine an alternative universe where, after WW1, the advisors of Woodrow Wilson would have prevailed

Europe’s astonishing drop in illegal migration Europe’s big, invisible wall is slowing boat crossings by migrants

Europe’s astonishing drop in illegal migration

"In the first eight months of this year 112,000 people crossed illegally into Europe, down 21% from a year earlier. The drop is an even more impressive 52% from the comparable period in 2023"

www.economist.com/internationa...
From The Economist

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UK to scrap right of refugees to seek permanent residency after 5 years Policy comes as Keir Starmer seeks to toughen stance on immigration and fend off Reform UK

But I was told that Keir Starmer’s conference speech marked a pivot away from imitating Reform and towards a bold new liberal something! I WAS PROMISED!

on.ft.com/4mGqFPF

Just saw an epic TV rant by Robert #Habeck on the state of the German economy from May 2019.

He was very prescient, and basically everyone around the table thought he’d gone mad. There is a reason why Germany is in this mess.

Punt is niet dat je ongelijk hebt, punt is dat de kiezer daar onvoldoende van op de hoogte was, of dat niet geloofde.

En symbolen zijn belangrijk vrees ik..

Striking stat from @kellycnbc.bsky.social on this:

The rise in treasury yields since Trump’s tariffs were announced leads to an increase in US debt interest payments that is larger than all the DOGE savings.

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Some thoughts on the strategic rationale behind the "Brandmauer” – the cordon sanitaire vis-à-vis the AfD – and the challenges associated with maintaining it. Seems pertinent, given that senior CDU/CSU figures regularly float the idea of ditching it and exploring avenues for closer cooperation.

Critical reactions on this. That’s fine I get it. Worth gauging and probing US intentions for Europe I’d say.

US provides demand, China mainly supply, making the former despite everything a more logical dance partner for trade surplus EU…

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"We zitten in een polycrisis: begroting, veiligheid, wonen,... Is het wel de moment? Maar wat we aan het doen waren, die voorlopige regering, was erger."

@willemsas.bsky.social. Is een minderheidsregering in Brussel de oplossing? Bekijk hier de #terzake reportage: vrtnws.be/p.j1Zeo9N6dGx

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‘It’s become almost the norm’: Misinformation ramping up during election, expert says

‘It’s become almost the norm’: Misinformation ramping up during election, expert www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/alb...

Me: "...if you feel like something is playing to your rage, playing to your grievances, those kinds of emotional responses should be a red flag to pause & to double check the veracity..."

On that market response to Germany deploying fiscal policy and the plethora of obviously wrong market reads from Germany and the Netherlands.

@rajakorman.bsky.social nails it here in the FT.

The best part?

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