Have had the same reaction in the last year. Case in point: juries have performed so much better than other institutions!

I mostly agree with the larger point, I think: political effects of economic conditions are mediated through the media (writ large), which may not always reflect actual conditions.

But tbc you can estimate the causal effect of X on Y and see if it is big or ~0! Don't let NHST tell you otherwise!

New WP! Philip O'Sullivan, Kosuke Imai, and I generalize an earlier SMC sampler for redistricting plans, allowing it to scale better & be applied to multi-member districts, too, like the Dáil Éireann (Irish parliament) below.

Look for a new 'redist' version soon(ish)!

arxiv.org/abs/2603.22188

Israeli police kill two young Palestinian boys and their parents in West Bank Mother, father and brothers aged five and seven shot in the head as they returned from Ramadan shopping trip

Atrocity upon atrocity.

Every detail here is worse than the last.

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Strength In Numbers is looking for smart survey research assistants Note: Not a full-time job, but I will pay you — probably best for a smart undergrad or grad student or side hustle-r

Strength In Numbers is looking for a smart part-time survey research assistant (or a few)
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/strength-i...

LA City Council’s City President Marqueece Harris-Dawson says he has been pulled over four times while a member of the council; the most recent was this week. He missed a committee meeting because of the stop, according to him.

Among the questions: “how do you have this vehicle,” according to him.

I just cannot underscore enough how uselessly simplistic this WAR-based mode of thinking about elections is. And it’s not even accurate! In Jain’s own construction WAR explains 25% of future residual candidate performance, including fundraising, candidate skill, district fit, & general vibes-y stuff

Demo of random convolutional feature

Example graph Fourier feature on a large lattice graph

Demo of 'mgcv' integration

v0.2 of `bases` is up on CRAN! `bases` brings nonparametrics into your favorite modeling functions—using random Fourier features is as easy as sticking `b_rff()` into your formula.

v0.2 brings graph Fourier & random convolutional features, `mgcv` integration, & more!

corymccartan.com/bases/

I'd very much like to return to a world where academia, the sciences, the media, etc. *can* be neutral because everyone accepts their right to flourish, but that's not the reality we're living in.

The entire Democratic strategy debate — "moderate" or move left? fight or compromise? — is based on a misreading of data. Voters don't think Dems are too progressive; they think Dems are weak. The actual math on what to do about this isn't even close!
New: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...

Redistricting Reforms Reduce Gerrymandering by Constraining Partisan Actors is now forthcoming in the APSR!

We use a game theoretic treatment and continuous DiD(iD) to show when redistricting reforms work

with @corymccartan.com, @simko.bsky.social, Emma Ebowe, Michael Zhao, and Kosuke Imai

Specifically, the “issue” is/was my (non-)compliance with Regulation 9.016. A similar presentation I gave in Finland in October was also flagged for violating this same regulation because I had “transgender” in the title there too. www.flbog.edu/wp-content/u...

How Proportional Representation Could End Gerrymandering YouTube video by Protect Democracy

We need more people to know about this simple solution to gerrymandering ⬇️

Here's how proportional representation could make map manipulation impossible, and it’s actually achievable. Watch and share to spread the word: https://youtu.be/xN5V0au9Xms

finally: to the extent that it's possible safety isn't found in secrecy, it's found in numbers, and the former is at odds with achieving the latter.

🇺🇸 trifectas get <one> shot at doing something

Obama chose policy (ACA). It didn’t fix the authoritarian problem

Biden chose policy (ARP/IRA). It didn’t fix the authoritarian problem

The platform must be <immediate> institutional reform next time. Right from the start, as @dhnexon.bsky.social said

Learning From the UAW’s National Organizing Push If the labor movement hopes to survive, it must find ways to organize in the private sector at scale. The UAW’s national push to organize higher ed, and its recent union drives at Volkswagen and Merce...

Worth serious consideration and engagement, whether or not you end up agreeing with it. jacobin.com/2026/02/uaw-...

The Problem With AI Is Shitty Human Beings The problem with AI isn't going to be Skynet. It's going to be amoral extraction class assholes applying half-cooked automation at scale onto deeply broken sectors in exploitative ways in a country t...

new newsletter post up about all those folks who insist they "can't have an open conversation about AI"

Order on Motion for TRO – #95 in The Advocates for Human Rights v. U.S. Department of Homeland Security (D. Minnesota, 0:26-cv-00749) – CourtListener.com ORDER: Plaintiffs' Motion for a Temporary Restraining Order (ECF No. 17 ) is GRANTED IN PART. See Order for specifics. Signed by Judge Nancy E. Brasel on 2/12/2026. (Attachments: # 1 Exhibit A) (RMM) ...

from
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

these people are sick

Anyway, I am skeptical of many suggestions of the reform movement (eg preregistration, registered reports, etc) because they do not address the underlying incentives, nor do they alter the purpose of the system.

9/N

At what point should universities that practice this kind of censorship lose their accreditation?

Including several PS papers on optimal gerrymandering that reached the same conclusion 20-30 years ago!

2nd chart is interesting - swing was not correlated with turnout. Consistent with a mostly persuasion effect

One thing I hope people take the time to acknowledge: The sea change in public opinion has been achieved because violence, though encourage by a lot of people here online, was never once employed by the movement. Violence was solely the purview of the state and that is why the state is losing.

The administration is boxed into a corner right now and its entirely the result of the incredible discipline of the people in the streets. The Insurrection Act angle was always predicated on ICE brawling with the black bloc in street. Without that, it's worthless.

The most succinct description of the murder I've seen.

This is when the Linz stuff comes to a head. Two competing branches of government with competing claims of legitimacy in open conflict.

“Everyone should be allowed to carry a gun for their safety but the government can murder you in the street if you have a gun” is an incredible endpoint for the conservative moment

There is always _a_ reason. Even in the most repressive state. It is usually "they didn't go when we told them to go"

I am trying not to post on these events in this state of mind but: I hope people understand what the observers are doing is brave and dangerous.