Alex Rubinson - Nolan McLean has No Choice but to be Perfect
It’s no secret that the New York Mets were reeling before last night's victory over the Minnesota Twins. It’s never a good thing when the opposing team openly trolls you on social media like the Twins did on Tuesday night after it handed New York its 12th consecutive loss. With Juan Soto finally back from a short IL stint, the hope is the offense can finally show a pulse.
On the pitching side of things, Carlos Mendoza’s staff has been solid. Although they might rank below average in ERA, they are in the top 10 in WHIP and have not been the reason the Mets season has started to spiral out of control. Fair or not, the hurler leading the staff is Nolan McLean. After a strong stint in the big leagues to close out the 2025 season, McLean has picked up right where he left off.
It’s pretty impressive when you take a no-hitter into the sixth inning and that ends up being your worst start of the season. No one is blaming the losing streak on McLean, and it’s even tougher when such an inexperienced pitcher is tasked with being the team’s stopper, but even after the tough loss on Tuesday, that is exactly where the Mets find themselves.
McLean has made a grand total of 13 starts in his big league career. After last season, there were major question marks surrounding New York’s rotation. It’s why David Stearns went out and acquired Freddy Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason.
Even with that major move, McLean is currently the team’s ace. Although it hasn’t always been the case, the expectation is to win when he takes the mound, as he’s given up three or fewer runs in every one of his five starts to begin the season and has worked into the seventh inning in each of his last three appearances. Not only is he giving the Mets length, but the quality is even better than what the raw numbers suggest.
In just his five starts, McLean already has a positive eight overall run value. That is in the 98th percentile of all MLB pitchers. A lot of that has to do with his elite fastball. When we talk about the best pitchers in the game and their fastballs, McLean is not a popular name that comes up, but the underlying stats say otherwise.
His fastball run value alone is responsible for a six-run value, good for 98th percentile. Although his secondary stuff doesn’t rank quite as high, both his offspeed and breaking pitches are a major plus, ranking in the 82nd and 75th percentiles respectively.
What is fascinating about McLean is that despite placing just outside the top five in strikeouts, he doesn’t possess elite swing and miss numbers. He has not been fooling hitters, as he is only in the 16th percentile in chase rate. Although his 58th percentile whiff percentage is good, it is not elite like his strikeout results.
Where McLean really makes his money is the quality of contact (or lack thereof) off of the bats of opposing hitters. He is in the 65th percentile in hard-hit rate, which helps his expected opponent batting average climb all the way up to the 94th percentile. As of now, opponents are expected to hit a miniscule .168 against him. Even more impressive, McLean is in the top five percent with an opponent slugging percentage of .238.
For how often he throws it, his sinker is by far his best pitch. It is interesting to note how effective his curveball has been to start the year. Hitters have mustered just one hit, a single, against the pitch and have registered 11 strikeouts. McLean has only thrown the curve 41 total times this season. It’s certainly possible that the pitch is so successful because it’s his fifth pitch, but as McLean continues to face more and more batters, it is worth exploring if that pitch can stay at its current level even if it’s thrown more frequently.
McLean doesn’t have any reason to tinker with repertoire and sequencing given how well he’s played coming out of the gates, but as hitters see him more times throughout this season (and eventually his career), McLean could consider throwing the curveball more often to keep hitters off-balance and guessing.
The biggest bright spot on the team from Queens is the 24-year-old right hander. He is one of the few people to not share blame during the Mets recent woes. If the Mets are going to be playing deep into October, which was the expectation heading into 2026, it can’t just be the Nolan McLean show.
McLean doesn’t come off as someone who will feel or bend to that pressure, but you are asking a lot from a guy who made eight starts prior to this season. He shouldn’t have to feel the weight of the sport’s largest market on his shoulders. He shouldn’t have been forced to be the team’s ace this early in his young career. Alas, that is the role he has been thrusted into. Like it or not, a third round pick out of Oklahoma from the 2023 draft is now who everyone turns to and relies on.
Things might change with Soto back in the fold, but as of now, five no-hit innings to begin his night were not good enough on Tuesday. If McLean isn’t perfect, the Mets are left searching for answers.
