Vorticity aloft & a weak surface front will lead to pockets of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms from the provinces of #Formosa, #Chaco, #Corrientes & #Misiones in N #Argentina & southeast #Paraguay to the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul Wednesday night into Friday.
Thunderstorms, some with hail & flooding downpours, will continue to northeast & central #SaudiArabia, #Bahrain & southern #Iran into Friday. Strong thunderstorms are possible in #Iraq & western #Iran this weekend.
A quasi-stationary front will continue to produce areas of heavy rain & gusty thunderstorms in northeast #SouthAfrica, portions of #Botswana, southern #Zimbabwe & southern #Mozambique through Thursday. Risk for local flash flooding.
Blocking ridge will keep much of western #Europe dry and mild into next week. An omega block may develop over Europe early next week with a shot of colder air into eastern Europe, including #Poland & #Ukraine.
A quasi-stationary front will produce rounds of rain, some heavy, and thunderstorms in northeast #SouthAfrica, portions of #Botswana & southern #Mozambique into Friday. Risk for local flash flooding.
A quick transition to #ElNino is expected over the next couple of months with a strong El Nino anticipated later this boreal summer & autumn. Signals for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in late boreal summer & autumn.
Ridging will keep much of #India dry and hot into next week.
Thunderstorms, some strong, will continue in northeast & central #SaudiArabia, #Bahrain, #Kuwait & southwest #Iran into Thursday. Hail, strong wind gusts & flooding downpours are the main risks.
Ridging will keep much of western #Europe dry & warm into next week, while eastern Europe remains chilly. An omega block can develop over Europe this weekend or early next week.
Warming continues across the equatorial #Pacific with a warm Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) & warm South Pacific Meridional Model (SPMM). Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains negative. Note the cooling around the #Mariana Islands due to upwelling from #Sinlaku.
The JMA and JTWC have issued their final advisories for #Sinlaku.
Shear has left the center of #Sinlaku exposed with all the convection well east of the low center. The storm will continue to rapidly weaken over the next 12-24 hours with any leftover moisture & energy being absorbed into a trough extending S from Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.
Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will continue in western #Iran, portions of #Iraq, #Kuwait & central #SaudiArabia into Tuesday. Additional thunderstorms, some strong, are expected in central Saudi Arabia, #Bahrain & #Qatar on Wednesday & Thursday.
Strong MJO pulse & equatorial Rossby wave helped to develop #Sinlaku late last week. The MJO in the West #Pacific also helped drive warm subsurface waters toward the surface in the eastern equatorial Pacific by generating Kelvin waves.
Shear is displacing convection east of Tropical Storm #Sinlaku and shear will continue to rapidly weaken the storm over the next couple of days as it tracks northeastward.
#Sinlaku is now a severe tropical storm to the east of #Japan's Volcano Islands and will accelerate toward the northeast this weekend. The storm is encountering increasing shear and should weaken over the next few days.
A cooler pattern across much of northern and eastern #Europe next week.
The heat will continue across portions of #India into next week. A western disturbance will produce rain, thunder & mountain snow from northern #Afghanistan & northern #Pakistan to #JammuKashmir, #HimachalPradesh & #Uttarkhand through Sunday.
A low near NE #Libya will spread rain, thunder & mountain snow from #Turkey, #Syria, #Lebanon & #Jordan to N #Iraq & NW #Iran Fri through Sun. Showers & storms can continue in Iraq & Iran early next week with storms reaching #Kuwait & C #SaudiArabia early next week.
Typhoon #Sinlaku is passing west of Alamagan in the Northern #Mariana Islands & is tracking northward. A turn to the northeast is likely Thursday night or Friday, local time. Sinlaku will accelerate northeastward this weekend then become absorbed by a trough Monday.
The recurvature of Typhoon #Sinlaku in the next couple of days will likely lead to a trough and a cool end to April in the eastern #US.
South Asia Monsoon Forecast.
Ridging will result in more heat across portions of #India into next week. A western disturbance will produce rain, thunder & mountain snow from northern #Afghanistan & northern #Pakistan to #JammuKashmir, #HimachalPradesh & #Uttarkhand Thursday through Sunday.
The low over in the Mediterranean will spread rain, thunder & mountain snow from #Turkey, #Syria, #Lebanon & #Jordan to N #Iraq & NW #Iran Fri through Sun. Showers & storms can continue in Iraq & Iran early next week with storms reaching #Kuwait & C #SaudiArabia early next week.
Typhoon #Sinlaku is passing just west of the island of Anatahan & will turn toward the northeast Thursday night or Friday, local time. Sinlaku will pass near the islands of Uracus, Maug & Asuncion Friday then accelerates into the open Pacific this weekend.
Westerly QBO at 15mb this past winter could result in a weak #India summer monsoon, especially early in the season. If the connection holds, the monsoon can strengthen toward September. I plan to get to my monsoon forecast soon, but I've been short on free time lately.
The CPC followed suit with the Australia BOM declaring a return of neutral ENSO conditions in the equatorial #Pacific. #ElNiño conditions will likely develop in the next couple of months with a strong El Niño expected later in 2026.
The storm over northern #Argentina will bring areas of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms to N Argentina & #Paraguay through Wednesday, then #Uruguay & Rio Grande do Sul, #Brazil later Wednesday & Thursday. Rain will reach as far south as N #BuenosAires province Wed night & Thurs.
