Are you talking about thermostatic dread or like the long-run average?

They clearly feel threatened by Talarico and his faith

I remain steadfast in my belief that we should’ve lost the revolutionary war. Damn British shoulda cracked the whip

Wasn’t there another blue collar coded candidate in the race before mills forced everyone else out

Looking at the cash CA HSR has managed to burn through, I'd say 77 billion would get you from DC to Bethesda.

Illinois democratic primaries really need ranked choice...outrageous that someone could get the nom on less than a third of the vote

What does the evidence say about strategic voter behavior in the second round, assuming the candidate themself doesn’t drop out. Does the second round just mirror the first round or do third and fourth place voters realign strategically

Do we know what she needs to win Dallas by to have a chance

Is Poilievre the Ted Cruz of Canada

Theresa May

What's the average swing been so far in specials?

In the US, special elections aren't by themselves all that predictive but the overall average swing of several special elections can be. Does that apply in the UK with by-elections?

Whatever happened to the primary calendar reforms. Is NH still first

Has there ever been a case where we looked back and said "yeah it was wise that they waited for the next one"

a natural byproduct of "the right falls in line, the left falls in love". democratic primary voters are just begging to be lied to

Has France considered moving to PR or at least ranked choice voting

Is there an insurance product for betting losses that I can invest in

Is Shabana hit from being seen as the McSweeney candidate?

The Aussies call this the "bitch and fold"

There doesn't appear to be any rational argument in favor of "compensation" - either in electoral or policy terms. What exactly is the motivation here

Looks like Jordan Bardella

Thought this was Friedrich Merz