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Posts by Matthew Cebul

Suck it, AI (oh no, wait, did AI do this)

2 hours ago 1 0 1 0

Its a shame we’ll have to have another contested GA Senate election when Ossoff runs away with the 2028 Dem primary, but if that’s what it takes to get an aggressive anti-plutocrat into office, so be it.

1 day ago 1 0 0 0

Me: Okay we have a lot to do today let’s get it together

Brain: I refuse to do anything productive until you help me remember the name of that really thick square chocolate bar you coveted as a kid circa 1980

Me: Goddammit

2 days ago 1290 80 99 15

“Is it 100 Grand”

”I just told you it was 50 cents, you deranged psychopath, inflation is ***not that bad***“

2 days ago 10 0 0 0

Demographic data complicated by the fact that 100% of users register as 21 year olds with fake IDs

6 days ago 1 0 0 0

"Short term volatility for long term gain" reminds me of how my dissertation advisor used to describe entering a political science doctoral program as "sacrificing current income in order to sacrifice future income"

6 days ago 2 0 0 0

It's one of those papers that shows you a problem that immediately seems very clear, and now you can't unsee it and would very much like someone to solve it, any day now really

(Thank you both!)

6 days ago 2 0 0 0
The Exclusionary Foundations of Embedded Liberalism on JSTOR Sara Wallace Goodman, Thomas B. Pepinsky, The Exclusionary Foundations of Embedded Liberalism, International Organization, Vol. 75, No. 2, Challenges to the Liberal International Order: International ...

I'm a few years late, but @saragoodman.bsky.social and @tompepinsky.com's 2021 piece on exclusionary liberalism is outstanding.

If you're at all interested in illiberal xenophobia and the future of the liberal international order, this is required reading.

6 days ago 10 3 2 0

Perhaps Magyar's most important promise, and the one that certainly resonates with voters: "never again a country without consequences!"

The crowd chants: "To prison! To prison!" [with the corrupt officials of the outgoing government]

1 week ago 8537 1764 76 368
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To scholars of democratic backsliding, it is difficult to overstate how big a deal today's election in Hungary, a country of less than 10 million people, is likely to be as a narrative milestone for our age, regardless of which way it goes.

1 week ago 1427 289 12 10

That Vance would prove more anchor than sail was not difficult to predict, here. People do not like blatant US interference in their elections!

1 week ago 3 3 0 0
A starfield filled with thousands of stars and shining clouds of dust. The Milky Way\u2019s elegant spiral structure is dominated by just two arms wrapping off the ends of a central bar of stars. Spanning more than 100,000 light-years, Earth is located along one of the galaxy\u2019s spiral arms, about halfway from the center. Credit: NASA

A starfield filled with thousands of stars and shining clouds of dust. The Milky Way\u2019s elegant spiral structure is dominated by just two arms wrapping off the ends of a central bar of stars. Spanning more than 100,000 light-years, Earth is located along one of the galaxy\u2019s spiral arms, about halfway from the center. Credit: NASA

OH. MY. GOD.

THIS IS THE MILKY WAY SHOT BY THE ARTEMIS II CREW. LOOK AT ALL THOSE STARS!!!!

1 week ago 25372 5094 353 296

Trump probably could have achieved a (marginally) better JCPOA with competent coercive diplomacy, given Iran’s weakened regional position.

Instead, we get a historic debacle of a war. By comparison, the JCPOA might as well be the Louisiana Purchase.

1 week ago 3 1 0 0

*taps sign* bsky.app/profile/ship...

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

Trump is now between a rock (escalation) and a hard place (humiliating defeat).

The defining feature of Trump 2.0 is his admin's categorical refusal to admit errors. Ever. Trump's cult of personality is *the* load-bearing pillar of his political life.

So: can Trump save face? If not...rock.

2 weeks ago 22 8 0 1
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To all those afflicted by seasonal allergies: may you be steadfast in these dark and perilous times

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

This, “god made fucked up monkeys with anxiety“ are my favourites so far from this trip down memory lane

2 weeks ago 2 1 0 0

brb, googling "Big Bridges in Saudi Arabia"

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 1

Amendment: I guess Iran might decide to quickly re-open to most traffic if the world decides to accept the new Iranian toll gate.

In which case, I don't know how Iran hawks sleep at night. They set out to disempower Iran, and are instead handing them a $100 BILLION annual check? Yikes.

2 weeks ago 0 1 0 0
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I need someone to explain like I'm 5 why Iran would choose to open the Strait if the US + Israel ceased hostilities today.

Iran is ~ weeks away from $$$$ oil prices, Americans are war averse, and we can't curb Iranian revenue w/o increasing oil prices. Why not restrict flow indefinitely?

2 weeks ago 0 0 2 0

The chaotic uncertainty intrinsic to Trump's transactional paradigm is ruinous. It prevents us from forging durable agreements *even among our allies,* let alone enemies.

That this admin failed to anticipate real Iranian resistance -- the most obvious thing in the world -- is a damning indictment.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

The blatant lack of U.S. assurance credibility is the defining malaise of Trump's transactional foreign policy.

Nobody believes that Trump will honor his word. This incentivizes targets to resist Trump's demands (Iran), and to make promises they have no real intent to fulfill (investment pledges).

2 weeks ago 53 19 2 0

Just had a nice convo with my proudly libertarian Lyft driver en route to @isanet.bsky.social about why cutting USAID for “waste” was a disaster — civic duty accomplished 🫡

See y’all in Columbus!

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Prestigious Kennedy Award Goes To 'The People Of The Twin Cities'

"The people of the Twin Cities" are the winners of the prestigious 2026 John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award www.huffpost.com/entry/latest...

1 month ago 3397 937 63 88

I've got a tennis joke, but it's pretty hit or miss

1 month ago 1 1 0 0

It's at least somewhat gratifying to watch the illiberal autocracy promoters refuse to learn from the mistakes that liberal democracy promoters made: overtly asserting that a politician is backed by U.S. imperial support typically doesn't help!

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

👀🍿🔥

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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This headline tells the ugly story: www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

1 month ago 28 20 2 0
1 month ago 4 0 0 0
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THE ROMANS: "We spend our time in careful and deliberate reflection on what it means to live a good life"

MARC ANDREESSEN: "I spend my time watching my evil money printer go BRRRRRRRRRR"

1 month ago 1 1 0 1