Exactly. Tom knows his stuff (retired now, but still thinking!).

With the "neutral nominal interest rate were at 3.36% to 3.47%" assuming 2% inflation (unlikely in this year).

With core CPE inflation at 3.0% YoY in February, this would suggest the Fed Fund neutral rate should be around 4.4% (currently Fed Funds is at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent).

No rate cut coming!

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads Update on Neutral Interest Rate “Models”

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
Update on Neutral Interest Rate “Models”
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...

I don't have access to LA data.

Economic Weekly April 17, 2026 This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.

Economic Weekly April 17, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March The NAR is now reporting earlier in the month than in previous years.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-a...

“It is a very well-settled matter of Christian theology,” It’s something called the ‘just war doctrine.’” Speaker Johnson

“There has never been a just war, never an honorable one--on the part of the instigator of the war.” Mark Twain

"In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level."

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was unchanged compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago."

Lowest Mortgage Rates in 4 Weeks Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in exactly 4 weeks. Today's improvement is a bit ...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...

BofA: "The [core PCE] y/y rate should increase to 3.1% from 3.0%. For headline, we are tracking a 0.64% m/m increase and 3.4% y/y, with a risk of rounding up to 3.5%. This ... should keep the Fed firmly on hold in the near-term."

Goldman: "the PPI components relevant for PCE were stronger than our previous assumptions ... we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.27% in March corresponding to a YoY rate of +3.15% ... we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.64% in March, or increased 3.45% YoY."

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.98 million SAAR in March calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...

This is mostly for contracts signed pre-war.

2026 is off to a very slow start

NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 3.6% Decrease in March

a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million.

1.0% decrease in sales year-over-year.

Tip 1: Don't buy a Tesla.

ROSENBERG: “.. consumer sentiment at its lowest level since the series began in November 1952! .. undercutting the lows of all the prior eleven recessions .. the 1970s oil shock,.. the Asian financial crisis .. the tech wreck and terrorist attacks of 2001, the GFC of 2008-2009 .. the 2020 pandemic.”

Economic Weekly April 10, 2026 This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.

Economic Weekly April 10, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March March sales will be mostly for contracts signed in December and January, and mortgage rates averaged 6.10% in January and 6.05% in February (lower than for closed sales in February).

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...

Wall Street analysts were expecting slightly higher core inflation (core is what to watch with a huge increase in energy prices). Still ugly!

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in March."

CPI 3.3% YoY, Core 2.6% YoY

Slightly less inflation than expected.

Housing and Demographics One of the keys for housing demand is demographics.

Housing and Demographics
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-an...

Hall of fame FT correction

"From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago."

Core PCE was at expectations (This was February, pre-war inflation)
www.bea.gov/news/2026/pe...

"Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent)."

Income below expectations (spending as expected)
www.bea.gov/news/2026/pe...

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 ... Real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment."
www.bea.gov/news/2026/gd...
Slightly below expectations

"In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 16,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000."

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com