27% is my best guess, based on Bush in October 2008.

Also: ask Tsar Nicholas II if the Bolsheviks were center left.

Also: Russian milbloggers and soldiers also refer to it as meat waves. They're not real happy about dying either. But, like most Russians, they're just resigned to hopelessness against a system they have nope hope of fighting or changing.

Happy 89th birthday to an American icon, national treasure, and everyone's favorite Guncle.

Yes, Ukraine needs infantry, but they're balancing the battlespace with drones. They're going to test the theory that they can kill enough Russians, and cut off those in the field, to bring the battlefield equation back into their favor. The 50km reducto-ad-absurdum above shows the theory.

If almost everyone in front of you for 50 km is dead, you advance and take back land by walking forward.

Ukraine has already done some localized demonstrations / proof of concept stuff in a few areas where they gained drone supremacy.

At some parts of the front, we're seeing 90%+ of the casualties being caused by drones. In a war of attrition, Ukraine seems to have a legitimate shot of killing their way out of the situation if they reach their production goals. I don't see how Russia can continue if it reaches 50k/month.

Amidst the churn in Iran, Ukraine has quietly been turning things around. My latest at The Bulwark.

Death... by snu snu!

I think part of Orban's calculation was:

1. He can come back in a few years when Magyar doesn't make everything perfect

2. If he did try to overturn the election, he knew there was a good chance he'd end up like Nicolae Ceaușescu

3. Republicans in the US don't worry about #2

I think the best we can hope for from this Pope is indirectly criticizing Trump if he rounds up all the trans people and puts them in concen... I mean "wellness centers". Anything beyond that in terms of support is unlikely.

Bring back The Maxx.

Rich, right wing, conservative transgender women who think like Jenner exist in surprising numbers. It's still 5%, but it's surprising it isn't zero. Just further evidence of how stupid humans are in general.

They're almost all completely on board with seizing power for several generations, as outlined by the Claremont Institute. I wrote about this back in 2022.

fundamentally if the right-wing fantasy was true and there was a massive cabal of American elites working to get women to take over male-dominated industries they'd be doing a terrible job at it

The leopards are eating so well these days. Saddest part is: in the interview she says she'd still vote for Trump. FFS, if she and the rest of the trans community end up in camps, she'd still support him (along with 5% of the trans community).

NEW: Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/FortressBelt...

A US Defence Analyst's Warning to Britain: 'I Watched Our Democracy Die. You're Next' A US defence analyst argues that the United States has become a zombie democracy, locked into decline - and that Reform UK is now planning the same for Britain

They sensationalized the title a bit, but yeah, the US is toast, and Reform UK is just MAGA but without the Alzheimer's. bylinetimes.com/2026/04/15/a...

COD aircraft aren't numerous or big enough.

Pictures have been floating around showing nasty looking food on board the carrier Theodore Roosevelt. This usually means the ship has gone 20+ days without UNREP or a port visit for re-supply, and the mess is basically scraping / chiseling out the worst stuff out of the back of the freezers.

Nailed it.

Ongoing DDoS.

LOL. Yeah. This appealed to my geeky little heart.

The correct answer is the ankltsaur, the A-10 Warthog od dinos.

This could be really useful in Beitish Columbia.

No.

The Starry Rich passed through thecstrait, but was was turned back by the USN when it reached the Gulf of Oman.

The High-Risk, Low-Reward Blockade of Hormuz Americans may not have the stamina for the economic pain and military losses ahead.

My latest at the Atlantic. Even if the ceasefire holds, the situation with the blockade turns into a contest of who can endure more economic pain. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Scott Adams died a horrible human being, but a cartoon from December 3rd, 1989 immediately came to mind when I saw this headline.

Scott Adams died a horrible human being, but a cartoon from December 3rd, 1989 immediately came to mind when I saw this headline.

I really need to write something about Ukraine. The Russian army is losing 200 people per day more than it is recruiting. Discipline is negligible. Graft is everywhere. And Ukraine is gaining the upper hand in all forms of drone warfare. threadreaderapp.com/thread/20441...