It does impact both sides.

Supply and demand, China increased prices 4X

After showcasing a variety of uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs), Russia has fallen far behind Ukraine. Reasons include funding, the loss of Starlink, the increase cost for fiber optic cable, and the Russian Ministry of Defense concluding soldiers are cheaper and easier to replace.

Ukraine changed modern warfare, and even the US Army is admitting it A summary of the events that happened on day 1,514 of the Russia-Ukraine War.

Ukraine changed modern warfare, and even the US Army is admitting it

The Russia-Ukraine War SITREP No. 1,011, for April 17, 2026, is 77 pages long and includes the NATO Alliance, Belarus, and Moldova. Here is your summary:

malcontentnews.substack.com/p/ukraine-ch...

US Treasury OFAC issued another waiver for Russian oil and petroleum products “already at sea” from April 17 to May 17, just days after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the waiver would not be renewed. He also claimed the reason for ending the waiver was that all seaborne oil had found buyers.

Still no list of equipment or units that will participate in Moscow's Victory Day Parade on May 9, nor a list of invited world leaders. The parade, if it happens, is just 23 days away.

Slovakia will not block the 90B-euro EU loan package for Ukraine. Final approval will likely come in late May.

Moscow can't hide it anymore, Russia's economy is falling apart A summary of the events that happened on day 1,513 of the Russia-Ukraine War.

Moscow can't hide it anymore: Russia's economy is falling apart

The Russia-Ukraine War SITREP No. 1,010, for April 16, 2026, is 60 pages long and a full report. The big story? Russian economic leaders confess that the economy is crumbling.

malcontentnews.substack.com/p/moscow-can...

Russian armor dwindles, tankers turned into assault troops A summary of the events that happened on day 1,512 of the Russia-Ukraine War.

Russian armor dwindles, tankers turned into assault troops - we couldn't post last night

The Russia-Ukraine War SITREP No. 1,009, for 11-15 April 2026, is 63 pages long and includes the NATO Alliance and Israel.

malcontentnews.substack.com/p/russian-ar...

A USAF KC-135 arrives back in the US with numerous patches covering battle damage after it was hit during an Iranian attack at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last month.

In the first attack, the US claimed five tankers received only “light damage,” with 4 immediately returned to service.

Prediction: Russian Shahed-136 drones will start violating Hungary's airspace now.

Hungary's Viktor Orbán concedes as his Fidesz Party is crushed in elections Péter Maygar is the presumptive prime minister with the TISZA Party projected to hold absolute control of the National Assembly.

Hungary's Viktor Orbán concedes as his Fidesz Party is crushed in elections

Péter Maygar is the presumptive prime minister with the TISZA Party projected to hold absolute control of the National Assembly.

malcontentnews.substack.com/p/hungarys-v...

TISZA is now projected to win 137 seats with 81.49% of the vote counted. Fidesz is projected to hold just 55, supported by the far-right nationalist Mi Hazank with 7 seats.

Orbán concedes!

Peter Magyar, head of Hungary's TISZA Party, just minutes ago, "Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has just called to congratulate us on our victory."

TISZA is now projected to hold 136 of 199 seats in Parliament, a 2/3 majority that would give Peter Magyar the power to change the Constitution.

Orban is getting absolutely crushed as vote results come in across Hungary.

TISZA is projected to hold 117 seats in Parliament, with FIDESZ reduced to 66.

37% of the votes counted. Orban is leading in only 11 rural counties.

There have been growing protests and clashes with police in Venezuela due to spiraling inflation and low pension payments. The worst violence against a puppet dictator since the 2024 elections.

Donald Trump to reporters on on-going trilaterial negotiations with Iran: “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me because we’ve won”

According to General Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, drone manufacturers are now producing more fiber-optic drones than Russia.

This aligns with our assessment earlier this week that Russian advances have mostly stopped, partially due to this increase.

A video has been shared on social media of California governor hopeful Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) kissing a woman who is not his wife in a hotel room. We evaluated the 4-second video, and our preliminary finding is that it is AI-manipulated or AI-generated content. The video contains our analysis.

This is incredibly moving.

At last night’s anti-Orbán concert in Budapest’s Heroes’ Square, the crowd cheered ex-army recruitment star Captain Szilveszter Pálinkás — now a whistleblower — as he fought back tears.

He recently said: “Orbán’s Moscow-friendly stance has only weakened our homeland.”
🇭🇺🇪🇺

There is also one arson attack in gray, which is related to a pro-Palestinian arson attack against a Ukrainian defense contractor. A potential connection to state actors is still under investigation.

The map of Russian (yellow), Belarusian (brown), and Chinese (purple) hybrid warfare attacks on Europe since 2022 continues to expand. Blue is air defense debris found outside of Ukraine, and green is Ukrainian missile or drone debris recovered. A "?" means under investigation, probable involvement.

Iran recovered at least the Small Laser Transmitter Assembly from an AN/AAQ-24 Nemesis DIRCM. This is the newest infrared detection and countermeasures system used by the US military, installed on MC-130J CSAR aircraft in 2025. An intelligence gathering coup for Russia, China, and North Korea.

We warned, and we warned, and we warned, and we warned...

After losing Starlink, Russian advances are reduced to a crawl A summary of the events that happened on day 1,506 of the Russia-Ukraine War.

After losing Starlink, Russian advances are reduced to a crawl

The Russia-Ukraine War SITREP No. 1,008, for 3-9 April 2026, is 77 pages long and includes the NATO Alliance and Japan. Here is today’s summary:

malcontentnews.substack.com/p/after-losi...

It is reported Russia has canceled the aviation part of Victory Day (May 9) parade in Moscow and St. Petersburg and has either canceled the event outright, or will do a pass in review of the traditional T-34 tank, military academy cadets, and marching bands only.

Command and control

That is the right question

Russia has not made a tactically significant advance in 2 months.

The loss of Starlink and Telegram disruptions, have impacted C2 more than we previously assessed.

This came at the same time Ukrainian mid-range strike capabilities significantly improved and wire-guided drone production caught up.

"A nuclear war is unlikely to expand to an uncontrolled exchange if neither side has existential stakes in the outcome of the conflict."

Elbridge Colby - 2021