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Posts by The Upshot

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Trump’s ‘Triumphal Arch’ Draws Backlash, Even From an Expert Who Proposed It

The story of how Trump quadrupled the size of the original proposal for the arch, via NYT Politics:

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/u...

3 hours ago 6 4 0 3
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Sports Betting Industry Spends $41 Million to Influence Elections

NEW: Gambling companies DraftKings, FanDuel & Fanatics this year quietly donated $41m to a super PAC targeting state legislative races in Texas & Georgia (which are among the biggest states that have not legalized sports betting) & Pennsylvania (which has considered raising taxes on sports betting).

6 hours ago 57 33 2 5
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With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting. We moved four ratings, all towards Democrats.

Read more from @jessicataylor.bsky.social: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sen...

1 day ago 98 22 1 3
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Breaking News: A jury found that Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster, operated as a monopoly in violation of federal and state antitrust laws. nyti.ms/4mwlmE1

6 hours ago 718 131 26 34
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LIV Golf’s future in question as Saudi Arabian backers consider pulling funding: Sources Members of the LIV Golf leadership team were first told on Sunday following the Masters that they would soon lose their positions.

From @theathletic.com: The future of LIV Golf is in question as the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund that financed the rebel league is preparing to pull its multibillion-dollar investment.

6 hours ago 91 11 33 11
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Opinion | The Whisper Network, #MeToo and the Downfall of Powerful Men Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales are now being held accountable thanks in part to the feminism of the 2010s.

“I don’t think either Swalwell or Gonzales would have quit Congress without the whisper network of online feminists,” Jessica Grose writes.

11 hours ago 7 1 1 0
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Opinion | Don’t Use A.I. to Do This People are usually surprised when I admit that I love A.I.

"Go ahead and use A.I. however you like," the author Colson Whitehead writes. "Except art. If you use it for your art, you’re a freakin’ hack."

9 hours ago 11 2 0 0

Trump says he will fire Powell if he does not resign from the Fed and that he is not planning to drop the probe into the central bank's renovations (Prosecutors made a surprise visit there on Tuesday)

The investigation is holding up Warsh's chair confirmation and raising the odds that Powell stays

14 hours ago 28 5 1 1
Line chart showing a long-term decline in the health of American democracy, based on independent assessments by three organizations: V-Dem, Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Line chart showing a long-term decline in the health of American democracy, based on independent assessments by three organizations: V-Dem, Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit.

NEW: Three organizations that have long tracked how well democracies around the world are functioning – V-Dem, Freedom House and the EIU – all show a decline in the health of American democracy in 2025. V-Dem's rating of the US is the lowest in 60 years. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

10 hours ago 10 4 1 2
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In Setback for G.O.P., Trump Appointee Will Not Run for Swing House Seat

Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican, decided not to seek his former seat, which will hurt his party’s chances of unseating Representative Laura Gillen on Long Island.

(Gift link via NYT Politics)

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/n...

10 hours ago 12 7 0 0
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Trump’s Go-To Justification for Contentious Decisions: National Security

NEW via @nytimes.com:

"#Trump's Go-To Justification for Contentious Decisions: National Security
The administration has invoked national security in a variety of matters, including the White House ballroom and offshore wind farms, drawing rebukes from some judges."
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/u...

10 hours ago 2 1 0 0
A scientist drills a skull in search of ancient human DNA

A scientist drills a skull in search of ancient human DNA

Until now, scientists have identified only a few dozen variants that went through natural selection in humans in the past 10,000 years. A new study claims to find hundreds--maybe thousands. Here's my story on the provocative research, and the mixed reception it's getting. Gift link: nyti.ms/4tSJH9G

11 hours ago 61 20 4 3
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Trump Threatens to Fire Powell if He Does Not Resign From Fed Although Jerome H. Powell’s term as Fed chair officially ends on May 15, he can stay on as a governor until 2028 and said he would not leave until a criminal investigation was over.

Breaking News: President Trump vowed to fire Jerome Powell if he opted to stay as the Federal Reserve chair after his term ends on May 15.

14 hours ago 60 16 20 13
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Opinion | GLP-1 Experimentation Is Everywhere, and Science Can’t Keep Up (Gift Article) Millions of Americans are experimenting with the drugs. Science can’t keep up.

What are GLP-1s actually doing?

In my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com, I explore how patients experience these drugs & why the story may be more complex than many assume.

nytimes.com/interactive/...

w/ insights from
@danieldrucker.bsky.social
@seeleyrj.bsky.social
among others #glp1

12 hours ago 12 5 4 1
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Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Military Says It Has Blocked Iranian Ports After ship trackers had shown that Iran-linked vessels were transiting the strait, the military claimed that all commercial traffic to Iranian ports had been cut off.

The U.S. military said early Wednesday that all commercial trade to and from Iranian ports had completely stopped, less than 36 hours after implementing a naval blockade. Follow live updates.

15 hours ago 30 14 15 5
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What the New Loan Caps Will Mean for Grad Students This Fall

With new limits on federal lending because of Trump's big policy bill, many students will need private loans and some could be shut out. See the data, program by program.

(Gift link)

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/u...

12 hours ago 6 11 2 0
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Pentagon Says It Attacked Another Boat in the Pacific, Killing 4 It was the second strike in two days, in a campaign against those the United States accuses of drug smuggling.

For the second time in two days, the U.S. military struck a boat in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, killing four people. The latest strike raised the death toll in the campaign by the U.S. against people it accuses of smuggling drugs at sea to at least 174. nyti.ms/42dHzxb

1 day ago 80 36 35 9
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Vance Says the Pope Should Be More Careful When Talking About Theology The vice president, who is Catholic, took issue with Pope Leo XIV’s statement that disciples of Christ are “never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs.”

Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that Pope Leo XIV was wrong to say that disciples of Christ are “never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs,” invoking World War II in the Trump administration’s spat with the Catholic Church. nyti.ms/4t8S9Bx

1 day ago 180 61 193 158

Brings a whole new meaning to, "Is the Pope Catholic?"

1 day ago 24 3 0 0
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51 Percent of Americans Think Trump’s Military Action in Iran Has Not Been Worthwhile A survey from Ipsos and Reuters, released on Tuesday, found few Americans — 24 percent — think the war in Iran has been worth the costs and benefits.

Few Americans — 24% — think the war in Iran has been worthwhile, a new survey released on Tuesday found, while 55% of Republicans said they thought it was worth the costs and benefits. nyti.ms/4dOYxsX

1 day ago 75 12 18 4
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Virginia Governor Ends Tax Breaks for Confederate Groups The new law signed by Gov. Abigail Spanberger is the culmination of a long, Democrat-led push to distance Virginia from its Confederate past.

Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia has signed into law a bill to end tax exemptions for a slate of Confederacy-related organizations in the state. nyti.ms/3OiMjyu

1 day ago 480 71 20 17
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Hochul Proposes Tax on N.Y.C. Second Homes That Are Worth $5 Million

BREAKING: Hochul will formally propose a yearly tax surcharge on second homes in NYC that are worth $5 million or more, she said on Tuesday.

The exact cost of the surcharge has not yet been ironed out, but the governor hopes to raise $500M annually that would be used to address the city's deficit.

1 day ago 1437 223 36 103

A SUSA poll largely conducted before the Swalwell investigation already showed a largely changed race, with the free-spending Steyer way ahead among Dems and GOP vote consolidating behind Hilton following Trump’s endorsement: www.surveyusa.com/client/PollR...

1 day ago 131 28 5 8
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A Divided America Processes a War With Iran As the war in Iran extends into its seventh week and a truce feels increasingly shaky, many Americans expressed bewilderment about a conflict that came with little warning.

Roughly six in 10 Americans oppose the U.S.-led war against Iran, recent public-opinion surveys show. Some say they are simply baffled by a war that they feel President Trump did not prepare them for and that still has not been clearly explained.

1 day ago 92 27 15 5
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Electoral College cartogram showing which states are in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and which ones could join in time for it to activate by 2028. Each state is sized and labeled according to its number of electoral votes. The states are spaced out enough to accommodate the changes in size but retain their general shapes and relative positions on the map.

Current members are in solid orange, potential members are in light green, and nonmembers that are unlikely to join are in medium gray. Members have 222 electoral votes, potential states have 68, and the unlikely states have 248. The compact would only activate once states with at least 270 electoral votes have joined.

The seven potential members and their electoral vote are Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). Democrats would need to gain the governor's office and/or legislative chambers to win unified power in these states, as detailed in the spreadsheet linked in this post.

Electoral College cartogram showing which states are in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and which ones could join in time for it to activate by 2028. Each state is sized and labeled according to its number of electoral votes. The states are spaced out enough to accommodate the changes in size but retain their general shapes and relative positions on the map. Current members are in solid orange, potential members are in light green, and nonmembers that are unlikely to join are in medium gray. Members have 222 electoral votes, potential states have 68, and the unlikely states have 248. The compact would only activate once states with at least 270 electoral votes have joined. The seven potential members and their electoral vote are Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). Democrats would need to gain the governor's office and/or legislative chambers to win unified power in these states, as detailed in the spreadsheet linked in this post.

NEW: Virginia just passed a law to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, giving it 222 of 270 electoral votes needed to activate.

This map and spreadsheet show which states could join to activate it by 2028 depending on the outcome of the 2026 elections docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

1 day ago 1700 621 41 69
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It's the Prices, Stupid Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because prices are at an all-time high. Consumer sentiment isn't broken, popular government data is just incomplete

The index of consumer sentiment isn't broken; models that try to predict it just don't have the right input variables. I fix that and find that, yes, high nominal price levels explain why the vibes are so off. It's the prices, stupid
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-14...

1 day ago 2270 602 76 129
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Opinion | The Affordable Car Is Dead. What Happened? This is how cars got so ridiculously, forbiddingly expensive.

In @nytopinion.nytimes.com

The first Honda Civic cost $2,100, or $15,100 today. Now, the reliable family car is 3.5 feet longer, three times more powerful — and almost twice as expensive. What happened to the “econobox” cars of the 1970s?

2 days ago 162 33 28 8
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A Stormy Week Is in Store for the Central U.S. Here’s What to Know. Tens of millions of people from Texas to the Great Lakes could face heavy rain and hail — and possibly tornadoes — as spring storms move through.

Multiple days of severe weather are expected across central parts of the U.S. this week, with forecasters warning that rounds of thunderstorms could bring large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and some tornadoes from Texas to the Great Lakes region at least through Friday.

1 day ago 37 7 2 1
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He Warned About the Dangers of A.I. If Only His Father Had Listened.

I am grateful to the New York Times and reporter @teddyrosenbluth.bsky.social for sharing the sad story of my father’s reliance on AI for medical guidance, and how it caused him so much pain, and likely hastened his death.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/w...

2 days ago 139 68 15 6

coming at this as both a political scientist and a member of Gen X, my main theory is that a significant proportion of Xers passed thru the critical impressionable years for political socialization (14-24) during popular GOP presidencies (Reagan/Bush); this has an enduring effect on party ID. (1/n)

2 days ago 97 28 20 12