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Are you aware of the two distinct summer circulation trend patterns in the Northern Hemisphere?

🔹US–Atlantic
🔹Eurasia

They explain up to 26% of regional temperature trends, yet most CMIP6 models tend to miss them👉 bit.ly/3JYmi5t

✍️ Dim Coumou & @tamarahappe.bsky.social, @vuamsterdam.bsky.social 
 

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🌡️ Lastly, these waves are associated with strong temperature surface imprints. We find that the circulation trends can explain respectively 15% and 26% of the observed regional temperature trends in the U.S.–Atlantic and Eurasian regions.

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2️⃣ We find that the upper-atmospheric circulation trendsconsist of at least two regional responses, with wave patterns over the US-Atlantic and Eurasia sectors. These waves are preceeded by distinct SST and OLR anomalies three weeks prior, yet these teleconnections are missing in CMIP6.

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1️⃣ Over the past decades, parts of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have shown strong summertime changes in upper-atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes. Concerningly, some of these observed trends fall outside of historical CMIP6 simulations.

☀️ 📈 Happy to share our latest publication!

🧵 a little thread below with our main findings... [1/...]

🔎 Or check out the whole story here: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

⛈️🌍🌡️ Apply now to our session! #EGU26

What role do teleconnection patterns play in shaping summer weather?

@tamarahappe.bsky.social just presented at #EGU25 the oral session “Observed circulation trends in boreal summer linked to two spatially distinct teleconnection patterns”

Read more👉 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

Check out our latest review on AI for weather and climate extremes!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit - Nature Climate Change What a first year with temperature 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline implies for long-term temperature goals is unclear. Here the authors show that such a first year above the baseline is highl...

In Nature Climate Change, we show that a year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. @natclimchange.bsky.social

The Keeling Curve The Keeling Curve is a daily record of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

CO2 monitoring data available here, keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

Advertisement for the EGU General Assembly 2025 session 'Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards around the World'. More details available: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/51888

🌍🔥🌧️🌡️🌀 One week left to submit #EGU25 abstracts 🌀🌡️🌧️🔥🌍

Join our session on future weather and climate hazards!

Featuring talks from Aglaé Jézéquel & Dominik Schumacher

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

Doing research on weather and climate hazards? Planning on going to #EGU25? Submit to our session! 🌍⛈️🌀🌡️