The USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System Network is critical for monitoring and predicting acute food insecurity globally, the impact of it going offline will be enormous, even outside of USAID-funded activities.
www.devex.com/news/usaid-f...
Forecasts of tropical cyclone 05S made by different AI models, as displayed on the ECMWF website.
An interesting / worrying forecast for the South West Indian Ocean, with another tropical cyclone on the way.
@ecmwf.bsky.social IFS: growing likelihood of the cyclone making 2nd landfall in MDG.
AI models: storm staying out in Moz channel, or even landfall in MOZ
charts.ecmwf.int/products/cyc...
Small islands must be supported to build resilience to tropical cyclones. It is not enough to just improve early warning systems. We must strengthen homes and critical infrastructure to ensure that people have somewhere safe to shelter &essential services like power &water supply remain operational.
The intensity of tropical cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean is increasing, in line with what is expected due to climate change.
Small islands are particularly vulnerable, because a single storm can devastate an entire island.
The path of #CycloneChido was well forecasted several days ahead, but communities on small islands like Mayotte can't move out of the path of the storm - there's nowhere to go.
Super Typhoon Man-yi (Pepito) was the first time we triggered the Philippines Red Cross Early Action Protocol. Previously we've had issues due to poor intensity forecasts 72 hours ahead of landfall, related to rapid intensification.
This time the @ecmwf.bsky.social 9km ensemble did well!
You can now share the Warming Stripes directly to BlueSky, such as these for my town of Reading:
showyourstripes.info/s/europe/uni...
(Find the graphic you want to share, click the blue options button - the one with three horizontal lines - and select the butterfly!)
Great new paper by Climate Centre colleague and Reading PhD student Dorothy Heinrich (+ Erin Coughlan de Perez:
"More than Magnitude: Towards a multidimensional understanding of unprecedented weather to better support disaster management"
doi.org/10.1016/j.wa...
www.linkedin.com/posts/antici...