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Posts by Nicholas Brown

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Vance Pauses Trip to Pakistan for Iran Talks Vice President JD Vance has for now paused plans to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for negotiations with Iran over ending the war, according to multiple people, after a flurry of meetings inside the Wh...

(WSJ) - Vice President JD Vance has for now paused plans to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for negotiations with Iran over ending the war, according to multiple people, after a flurry of meetings inside the White House.

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* WITKOFF, KUSHNER SEEN ARRIVING AT WHITE HOUSE: CNN

* RUBIO, HEGSETH ALSO SEEN ARRIVING AT WHITE HOUSE: CNN

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“.. companies seem to be reluctant to make any bold forecasts for this year .. remaining conservative in their forecasts” despite Q1 beats:”

1) GE Aerospace reiterates FY

2) 3M reiterates FY

3) Northrop Grumman reiterates FY

4) D.R. Horton cuts high end of FY revenue

- Robert Hum/CNBC

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GS: We Estimate That Passthrough from Tariff Costs to Consumer Prices Has Reached 72% So Far

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(Reuters) - The U.S. military has directed 27 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port since the beginning of its blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command says

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MORGAN STANLEY: “.. The rise in gasoline prices, when viewed against data on tax refunds, keeps us comfortable with our prior downward revisions to our outlook for US GDP growth.”

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Exclusive | Justice Department Is Criminally Investigating Beef Companies The move follows a call by President Trump last year for a probe of the companies.

(WSJ) - The Justice Department’s antitrust division is criminally investigating the conduct of large meatpackers that supply American consumers, after President Trump called for a probe of the companies last year, according to people familiar with the matter.

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(Reuters) - Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said the United States is making an effort to extend a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the pan-Arab Asharq al-Awsat cited him as saying on Monday.

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Energy Secretary Wright on sub-$3 gas:

March 15 on Meet The Press: “very good chance” of sub-$3 gas by summer.

April 19 on State of the Union: “I don’t know… maybe later this year… maybe next year.”

@atrupar.com

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Exclusive | Bipartisan Senators Warn United and American Airlines on Potential Merger Though American has rejected a deal, lawmakers ask both carriers to share how it could affect routes and fares.

$AAL $UAL | Bipartisan Senators Warn United And American Airlines On Potential Merger - WSJ

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BofA’s Raedler Warns Equity Markets Too Optimistic Amid 20-Year Low Risk Premium Sebastian Raedler, head of European equity strategy at Bank of America Corp., said stock markets are underestimating the growing risks to the global economy, as energy supply disruptions add to an inc...

BofA’s Raedler Warns Equity Markets Too Optimistic Amid 20-Year Low Risk Premium - Bloomberg

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(Reuters) - The world has lost over $50 billion worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran ‌war began and the aftershock of the crisis will be felt for months and even years to come, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.

#OOTT

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* U.S. CRUDE OIL SURGES OVER 7.5%, TRADING ABOVE $90.

#OOTT

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(Reuters) - Canada's close ties to the United States were once a strength but have become a weakness, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday, ​in a video message to his country in which he also ‌praised the heroism of military leaders who fought against U.S. invasion more than two centuries ago.

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(Reuters) - Two U.S. officials have died in a car accident in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua while supporting local authorities in efforts to combat cartel operations, the U.S. embassy said on Sunday.

State authorities said that two Mexican officials had also died in the accident.

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(Reuters) - European allies fear an inexperienced U.S. negotiating team is pushing for a swift, headline‑grabbing framework deal with Iran that could entrench rather than resolve deeper problems, diplomats with past experience dealing with Tehran said.

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Investors pile into US stocks as 'TINA' revival knocks 'TIARA' trades The U.S.-Iran ceasefire in early April appears to have revived "TINA" trades, driven by peace hopes, soaring U.S. earnings growth and the relative ​insulation of the world's biggest economy to an ener...

(Reuters) - The U.S.-Iran ceasefire in early April appears to have revived so-called TINA ("There Is No Alternative") trades, driven by peace hopes, soaring U.S. earnings growth and the relative ​insulation of the world's biggest economy to an energy shock.

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Gas prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year: Energy Secretary Wright Gas prices are more than $4 per gallon on average in the U.S. right now, a massive spike from just months ago.

WRIGHT: ".. under $3 a gallon is pretty tremendous in inflation-adjusted terms. We had that in the Trump administration, but we hadn’t seen that in inflation-adjusted terms for quite a long time. We’ll get back there for sure."

@cnbc.com #OOTT

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Google in Talks With Marvell to Build New AI Chips for Inference Google is in talks with Marvell Technology to develop two new chips aimed at running AI models more efficiently, according to two people with direct knowledge of the discussions. One is a memory proce...

$GOOGL $MRVL | Google In Talks With Marvell To Build New AI Chips For Inference - The Information

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War Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy The cumulative global impact of seven weeks of war in the Middle East will begin to emerge in the coming week, in a second round of business surveys from multiple countries.

War Revives Stagflation Dangers For Global Economy - Bloomberg

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(Reuters) - No date has been set for the next round of negotiations between Iran and the United States, Iran's deputy foreign minister said ​on Saturday, adding that a framework of understanding must be agreed first.

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Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed again as vessel attempting to cross comes under gunfire Iranian officials say they have closed the strait because of the U.S.'s ongoing blockade of its ports.

(CNBC) - Iran said Saturday that it has reimposed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz less than a day after reopening it to shipping traffic, blaming the U.S. for its ongoing blockade of Iranian ports.

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RICHARD BERNSTEIN ADVISORS: "For the first time since the pandemic the US is importing inflation. Core Import Prices are now rising faster than Core CPI."

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* NASDAQ 100 EXTENDS RALLY TO 13 DAYS, LONGEST STREAK SINCE 2013

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S&P 500 +12% last 3 weeks.. best rally since April 2020

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Early estimates (which can change) based on today's actions to reopen the Strait, could lead the national average price of *diesel* to fall to:
$4.95-$5.25 for Memorial Day
$4.75-$5.05 for July 4
$4.30-$4.75 for Labor Day (Hurricane season risk)

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META IS PLANNING TO LAY OFF ABOUT 10% OF ITS WORKFORCE ON MAY 20

That's roughly 8,000 employees in the first wave. More cuts are planned later in 2026, as per Reuters.

$META

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Goldman Sachs: "We do not see a pick up in the Strait of Hormuz flows yet, with estimated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz still at 10% of normal."

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* FED'S GOOLSBEE: SO FAR, CONSUMER JUST KEEPS CHUGGING ALONG

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Exclusive | Rivian’s Illinois Factory Will Run on Recycled EV Batteries The project highlights how battery energy is increasingly being used to power businesses and industrial facilities in the U.S.

$RIVN | Rivian’s Illinois Factory Will Run On Recycled EV Batteries - WSJ

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