Happy Hungarian election day!

Our final poll tracker update gives Tisza, the centre-right opposition, a 6pt lead over Orban's Fidesz: www.economist.com/interactive/...

Vanilla Ice?

"[Negotiation] requires a great deal of time and energy, and he who gets tired and bored quickly will lose"
Abbas Aragchi, Ph.D., Iranian foreign minister, in a book he wrote about negotiation.

Excellent episode with two of my favourite public intellectuals on why the civilisation being destroyed is actually the US.

Carlos Lagrange has four strikeouts (and two walks) through two innings. The velo is … velo-ing.

FT: Talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan have reached a stalemate over control of the Strait of Hormuz, two sources briefed on the negotiations say, with Iran insisting it retain authority over the waterway and rejecting joint control proposals

HERE YOU GO. That’s the reality.

🚢 Strait of Hormuz transit tracker

NEWS: Two U.S. Navy destroyers were forced to turn back while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened them and launched a drone toward the ships, per Bloomberg citing a regional intelligence official. 1/

Big new poll across 13 states, conducted by a GOP polling firm, finds: "Republican support for offshore wind has grown by 30% since January 2025."

Perhaps cutting off major sources of new energy during a supposed energy crisis is too dumb even for Republicans?

Reagan’s OMB Director:

Looks like Trump's attempt to kill US offshore wind has failed.

"Magataotao" on Twitter writes: "I am Catholic. This👇is not my Pope." Attached is a video of the Pope saying that we should search for peace and reject war. A community note under their tweet says: "You are not a Catholic if you do not accept the Pope, but rather a schismatic. Canon 751: “Schism is the refusal of submission to the Supreme Pontiff,” ie. the Pope. https://www.vatican.va/archive/cod-iuris-canonici/eng/documents/cic_lib3-cann747-755_en.html"

first in my bloodline to see someone get excommunicated by a community note

The US Administration has proposed a new rule that would bar almost all asylum-seekers from legally working, for at least a decade.

My colleagues and I have written and submitted a detailed analysis of how this act will impact the United States economy.

🧵—>

An important step forward for restoring freedom of navigation. But it’s telling that the US Navy waited for a ceasefire before proceeding through the strait. Too dangerous if the war is still going on, which mean Iran still has a veto over transit.

Even when they set up affirmative action jobs in political science, they always hire people doing normative theory or history or discount legal studies. Almost as if they can’t hang with people doing actual rigorous research.

Outer Wilds. The best game that you can never play twice.

A few point out that Arthur R. Miller has been at the job longer: He started the tenure track *64 years ago,* in 1962, during the Kennedy Administration, and he is not yet emeritus.
its.law.nyu.edu/facultyprofi...

🚨 NSF is already quietly eliminating the SBE Directorate, despite Congress’ mandate that NSF support the behavioral & social sciences.

Steps to counter this are in motion.

If you
- have an SBE proposal under review
- serve on an SBE grant panel

You can help! Fill out this form: shorturl.at/xuKw2

In fifty years when people look back at the past decade or so, the big world-changing technological innovation won't be the chatbot slop machines, it'll be mRNA.

Ichiro hasn't lost a step. He blames the broken bat on Mariano Rivera

Someone got up there and bent the Ichiro statue's bat back into place.

Tim Robinson, "yep that'll do it" meme

The letter fragment I've seen from Swalwell's attorney threatening defamation bears several things that, in my experience in this area, makes me immediately suspicious of Swalwell and his attorney and reflect meritless thuggery.
/1

Environmental Research Communications LETTER Political elites' partisan beliefs about climate change OPEN ACCESS Alexander C Furnas'*®, Timothy M LaPira? O and Salil D Benegal' © Addressing climate change requires political elites to share a basic set of facts about climate science, yet political elites in the United States are divided in their views about climate change. We document this using the first large-scale survey of over 3,500 U.S. political elites-including elected officials, staffers, regulators, lobbyists, and policy professionals—to assess the partisan divide in beliefs about climate change held by political elites. We show near-unanimous agreement among the Democratic elite on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring, primarily caused by humans, and widely recognized by scientists. In contrast, substantial minorities of Republican elites reject these scientific facts, with fewer than half affirming anthropogenic climate change and nearly one-third endorsing a climate-related conspiracy theory. Comparing elites to the general public, we find that political elites are more aligned with climate science, but partisan gaps among elites are as wide as those observed in mass opinion. Regression analyses show partisan identity explains far more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or broader conspiratorial predispositions. These findings suggest that partisan polarization among elites reflects not only strategic electoral behavior but also privately held attitudes.

I've got a new paper out today with @timlapira.bsky.social and @salilb.bsky.social in ERC showing that party ID strongly structures political elites' beliefs about climate change. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

How many years did Donald Trump spend bitching about the $1.7bn Obama released to Iran in the nuclear deal?

Fox News doc on lower fertility rate: "The problem is teens and young adults, from ages 15-19 the fertility rate is down 7%, and it's down 70% over the last two decades, meaning we're telling people that are young not have babies, to wait until they're in a more stable life situation"

Okay this isn’t really happening anymore so I can tell you how l had “internal ICE sources”: the 3000 very stir-crazy ICE agents were all going wild on Minneapolis Tinder. Local girls would match with them and string them along for intel. They loved to brag about what they were doing all day

#polisky share far and wide: @apsa.bsky.social Statement on the Proposed Elimination of the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate at the National Science Foundation

apsanet.org/wp-content/u...

*HASSETT: HORMUZ CAN BE OPENED WITHIN TWO MONTHS

that's terrible news if true, and it's being spun as positive!

The latest eruption at Kilauea appears to be starting! We should see large lava fountains soon. Tune in live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXKu...

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest artificial intelligence model from Anthropic PBC will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Bessent and Powell assembled the group at Treasury's headquarters in Washington on Tuesday to make sure banks are aware of possible future risks raised by Anthropic's Mythos and potential similar models, and are taking precautions to defend their systems, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified citing the private discussions. A representative for the Treasury didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the Fed declined to comment. The previously unreported meeting, arranged on short notice, is another sign that regulators consider the possibility of a new breed of cyber attacks as one of the biggest risks facing the financial industry. All the banks summoned to the meeting are classified as systemically important by top regulators, meaning their stability is a priority for the global financial system.

This is really impressive speed tbh. Not much gets by Powell.