Where next for Iran now its 'Axis of Resistance' is shattered? The toppling of Bashar al-Assad has major consequences for Iran

Spoke with BBC earlier on Iran’s nuclear programme and prospects for weaponisation or diplomatic resolution.

An increasingly concerning picture. Iran is more vulnerable than it has been in a while; hard to say if it perceives greater security in diplomacy or a bomb.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Money launderer for Russian spies won deal to help defend Ukraine power plant Sanctioned ‘entrepreneur’ awarded sensitive state contract to provide parts for Dnipro hydroelectric station damaged by Russian missiles

Money launderer for Russian spies won deal to help defend Ukraine power plant www.ft.com/content/57a3...

That’s the million dollar question here (pun aside): how does the West offer any meaningful and credible economic incentives to Iran?

Even with any sanctions lifting (and we’re some ways away from that), the US and European private sectors cannot be forced to do business with Iran.

How Iran Sees the Path to Peace The Islamic Republic is open to negotiations—including with America.

Zarif lays out Iran’s role in resolution of regional issues.

On nuclear, says Trump/Europe “have themselves to blame” for Iran’s nuclear progress. Notes that more pressure won’t work and that Iran is ready for dialogue - if West can ensure economic benefits.

www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-ira...

A Window of Opportunity on the Iran Nuclear File Europe and the US must capitalise on Iran’s vulnerabilities and time pressures to push for meaningful nuclear diplomacy before the October 2025 ‘snapback’ deadline expires.

My latest for @rusi.bsky.social on nuclear diplomacy with #Iran.

With Trump re-elected and UNSC snapback expiry looming in October 2025, there may be a window of opportunity to convince Iran that it’s time for meaningful diplomacy. But expectations should be tempered.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

This piece highlights so well why Russia is winning the narrative war in large parts of the Global South.

Namibia is a major source of mined uranium for worldwide nuclear fuel supply chains. Article also discusses Chinese efforts to enter the mining sector in the country.

Is Russia poisoning Namibia’s water in its hunt for uranium? Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom is trying to drill for uranium in Namibia. Farmers say a key aquifer is at risk.

Must read.

Rosatom looking to mine uranium in Namibia using methods that risk contamination of water supply.

Still, local population is keen for more RU investment, with Rosatom sponsoring local school food programme.

(With input from some of my earlier work).

www.aljazeera.com/features/202...

Russian deserter reveals war secrets of guarding nuclear base A combat alert was in place on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, he tells the BBC.

Interesting enough for the fact of having gotten someone from a Russian nuclear base on the record but otherwise a bit of a non-story…

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

This is a perennial challenge with deserter testimony. Have seen similar issues in DPRK context. Individuals will only have small piece of the puzzle and may not fully know or be able to accurately and meaningfully describe what they’re looking at. Statements must be reviewed alongside other intel.

Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy - War on the Rocks Editor’s Note: After the Russian military collapse in and around Kharkiv Oblast, there is now renewed concern that Russian leaders could behave

For folks interested in reading on the Russian approach to escalation, deterrence via intimidation versus through limited use of force, concepts of dosed or deterrent damage, etc. warontherocks.com/2022/09/esca...

NEW: Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. (🧵1/7)

Iran has a clear opportunity here to demonstrate its willingness to engage constructively on the nuclear question, if (BIG if) it chooses to do so.

Looks like agreeing to minimal and easily reversible measures like capping enriched U stocks won’t cut it if Iran wants to avoid snapback come October.

U.S. and Europeans Move to Censure Iran for Nuclear Secrecy Before Donald J. Trump takes office, the West wants to call out Iran for failing to adhere to treaty obligations to be transparent about its nuclear past and present.

Calling for #IAEA report into unresolved questions on #Iran ‘s nuclear programme would put the issue point blank to Tehran in advance of October 2025: either provide answers on programme the Agency has been after for years or make clear you don’t intend to cooperate.

www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/w...

Power Plays: Developments in Russian Enriched Uranium Trade This report examines the trade in Russian enriched uranium.

In 2023, 27% of enrichment services purchased by US utilities were Russian - up from past years and well above other foreign suppliers.

Inventories will help absorb some impact but this highlights the risks of maintaining dependencies on RU in nuclear supply chains.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

The enriched uranium market is all at sea Russia’s retaliatory restrictions on exports to the US have yet to hit prices

This seems to have slipped a bit under the radar last week: Russian introduction of restrictions on shipments of enriched uranium to US. Full details unclear.

@financialtimes.com story with reference to my earlier @rusi.bsky.social report on RU enriched uranium trade.

www.ft.com/content/ec09...