🌍 New publication – and the final paper of my PhD!
Can we end poverty, provide decent living standards (and beyond) for all, and meet climate targets?
📄 Paper (open access): “Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios: introducing DESIRE”: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
In a 2021 study we showed that already one third of the carbon price revenues of a 1.5°C path are sufficient to fund 350 billion $ per year of climate finance by 2030, and over 900 billion $ per year by 2050.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social director Ottmar Edenhofer on climate finance: "Taxing international aviation and coal, oil and gas would be a way of lowering emissions *and* raising money to fund international climate finance" (summary/translation mine).
Using up the carbon budget for 1.5°C
So, konzentrieren wir uns jetzt mal bewusst auf das Positive:
- Boom bei erneuerbaren Energien, Batterien und Elektroautos
- Fortschritte bei CO2 freiem Stahl und Schiffen
- Mehr Jobs in Umweltbranche als in Kohle
Klimapolitik bringt uns voran!
Interview
www.tagesschau.de/klimawandel-...
How can we reach the Sustainable Development Goals (#SDGs) and fulfill our #climate ambition? This is explored by a multi-model study led by @bjoernsoergel.bsky.social in the #SHAPE project.
And I'm excited that all scenario data is available under CC-BY via a brand-new #IIASA #ScenarioExplorer...
Heute morgen im Interview mit Britta Fecke bei Deutschlandfunk Umwelt & Verbraucher: Hier zum Nachhören: www.deutschlandfunk.de/klimaziele-p...
Und nochmal der Link zur Studie: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
10) The study was a shared effort led by @pik-potsdam.bsky.social with PBL & Utrecht University (NL), IIASA, NTNU (Norway), SRC (Sweden) and IDOS and RIFS (Germany).
All scenario data can be explored and downloaded in a new web tool: shape.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at
@danielhuppmann.bsky.social
9) On the other hand, the green innovation (EI) scenario needs little change in lifestyle, but relies heavily on efficiency increases. However, it also relies on potentially problematic technologies like bioenergy and CCS.
8) But it relies on substantial changes in energy and food consumption patterns, especially in high-income countries. These might be challenging to adopt.
7) The post-growth/lifestyle change scenario (RC) has the lowest warming and the largest improvements in biodiversity. It also has the least reliance on technologies unproven to work at scale, like carbon capture and storage (CCS).
6) They also avoid some of the unintended side effects of simplistic climate protection strategies, such as higher food prices. And they stop further loss of biodiversity.
5) We show that all three sustainable development scenarios fare much better than “business as usual”. They all limit warming to 1.5°C (with small and temporary overshoot), and make much larger progress towards the SDGs.
4) We used four large-scale computer models to quantify these scenarios. Two of them are integrated assessment models of the energy-economy-land-climate system, and two focus on the global buildings and materials sectors.
3) In this paper we take a systematic look at three different strategies:
- Green growth and tech-innovation (EI)
- Post-growth and lifestyle change (RC)
- Government-led transformation with mix of both (MC)
2) However, there are very different perspectives on how to best pursue these goals. Will green technologies save us? Or do we need to radically reduce our consumption?
1) We have the Paris Agreement on climate change and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), both of which were agreed by all countries worldwide in 2015. Taken together, they are an agenda for securing human well-being on an intact planet.
Our new study “Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets” - A summary thread
Read it in full here (open-access): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
New study out: Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets
Available open-access: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
We compare different pathways to meet the 1.5°C #climate target and the UN #SDGs. Details to follow.
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Haushalte mit niedrigen Einkommen brauchen mehr finanzielle Hilfen für #Klima-Maßnahmen, sagt Ines Verspohl von @klimasozial.bsky.social im @taz.de -Interview: taz.de/Soziale-Folg...
🆕Neuer Klimabeirat #Brandenburg unter Vorsitz von PIK Forscher Hermann Lotze-Campen - herzlichen Glückwunsch👏🥳 Der Expertenbeirat soll künftig Umsetzung von #Klimaschutz-Maßnahmen begleiten.
www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles...
Screenshot of the beta-version of the "SSP-extensions Explorer" hosted by IIASA, to be launched on February 29, 2024
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are a key input to climate change mitigation & adaptation research - but what about urbanization, structural change & governance?
Join the launch webinar of the SSP-Extensions Explorer!
🗓️29 Feb 2024 ⏰15pm CET
iiasa.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
EU Commission proposes new 2040 climate target today
Climate impacts show urgency
At least 95%+significant international climate finance would be appropriate as EU already overspent its fair CO2 budget. Missed opportunity to strengthen 2030 target as required by Paris
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Illustration of basic drivers in the updated SSP socioeconomic projections (release 3.0, January 2024), screen shot from https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ssp/#/workspaces/200
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have become an integral component of Integrated Assessment and Climate research - and now, it's time for an update of the underlying GDP & population projections.
Visit data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ssp for the SSP Release 3.0 (January 2024)...
Join the launch of the most ambitious study of food system economics today:
➡ Global Policy Report Launch by the Food System Economics Commission: foodsystemeconomics.org/events/globa...
📅 Date: Monday, 29 January 2024
🕒 Time: 15:00-17:00 CET
💻 Livestream: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
"Die EU wird das Ziel, bis 2030 55% weniger #CO2 auszustoßen, erreichen. Das Problem beginnt danach: Wir sehen, dass die geplanten Politiken der Mitgliedsstaaten nicht ausreichen. Da muss deutlich nachgebessert werden", so PIK Direktor Ottmar #Edenhofer.
www.deutschlandfunk.de/wissenschaft...
How will green and blue hydrogen compete with natural gas and with each other?
New paper that combines ranges for direct cost developments and residual emissions.
Importantly, CO2 & methane pricing or emission regulation will have an increasing impact
authors.elsevier.com/c/1iMSj925JE...
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Job posting: Please apply or share.
At @pik-potsdam.bsky.social we are looking for Postdocs and PhD candidates to model and explore circularity and industry transformation scenarios of energy-intensive industries (steel, cement, and plastics).
www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles...
