#ClimateRisk #FiscalStability #Macro

Climate change poses significant fiscal risks. Climate vulnerability puts sovereigns on the hook: countries with bigger climate exposure pay ~0.5–1.5pp more on government bonds and see downgrades unless markets are deep and politics stable.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Not looking good. According to new NBER paper, climate costs are huge: a 1°C rise in global temperature cuts world GDP by >20% in the long run — far above prior estimates. The implied social cost of carbon of around $1200.
www.nber.org/papers/w32450

#ClimateRisk #GDP #Macro

This RCT just published by the NBER! Owning energy stocks changes minds: exposure to both green & brown energy assets boosts public support for climate mitigation & adaptation — even among climate skeptics.

www.nber.org/papers/w34828

#ClimatePolitics #Finance #Macro

Extreme weather isn’t just local pain — it cuts ~0.3% of OECD GDP annually via spillovers beyond disaster zones. Macro losses are bigger and more widespread than standard metrics show.

cepr.org/voxeu/column...

#ClimateRisk #Macro #GDP

#MonetaryPolicy #FinancialStability #Macro

Co-author Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg and Martin Wolf with a new CEPR working paper: When private debt is high, aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation risk debt crises -- central banks may need a “backstop” approach, slowing hikes to stabilize both prices and credit.
cepr.org/publications...

Interesting new NBER paper: Climate shocks are distributional shocks. Evidence from Cape Town’s near-“Day Zero” drought shows adaptation capacity differs sharply by income -- amplifying inequality. Climate policy is macro policy.
www.nber.org/papers/w33468

#ClimateRisk #Macroeconomics

IMO, however, there is still a fundamental shortcoming which makes the user experience somewhat rigid. AI models are still horrible at finding a simple "follow" button on a screenshot and burn through tokens as if they were building a large-scale DSGE model.

#openclaw #agenticai

Agentic AI is moving fast. This weekend I set up OpenClaw -- "The AI that actually does things" developed by fellow Austrian 🦄 Peter Steinberger -- on an old phone. Talking to your personal AI assistant on Telegram while watching it execute tasks for you is IMPRESSIVE.

Post-COVID US inflation wasn’t just “overheating.” This DSGE breakdown shows the 2021–22 spike was driven mainly by price mark-ups — firms pushing margins higher.

Demand and policy mattered. But mark-ups did the damage.

Paper: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw...

#Inflation #Macro

#ClimatePolicy #Trade #CarbonPricing #Macro

Abatement rises with the carbon tax; adding a CBAM (solid vs dashed) reduces marginal abatement costs—i.e., more efficient emissions reductions for a given tax level.

CBAMs aren’t just “green tariffs”—they can make carbon pricing more cost-effective.

NBER reserach uses plant-level data + a global trade model for steel/aluminum: a CBAM can lower the marginal cost of abatement by reducing leakage.

PDF: allanhsiao.com/files/CCHW_c...

#EMDEs #Infrastructure #SocialReturns #DevelopmentEconomics #ImpactResearch #EconomicGrowth #PublicInvestment #SectorAnalysis #DataDriven #PolicyModeling #OMEGAmodel #Macroeconomics #EmergingMarkets #NBER

Great to see new research quantifying the social returns to infrastructure investment in EMDEs. The next step is to unpack these aggregate effects by sector — once we know who benefits and by how much, we can directly map those estimates into the OMEGA model.

www.nber.org/202602/diges...

Interesting proposal but it would require national treasuries to access a lot of information that other countries may not be willing to share.

Trump threatens a global trade war. Europe must unleash a radical alternative | Gabriel Zucman Unlike tariffs, a new form of protectionism could target climate-wrecking, untaxed corporations and their billionaire owners

To my Canadian and Mexican friends hit by the absurd Trump tariffs, I say: do this!

You can fight back by hitting the US oligarchy

👇👇👇

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

3. Firms in higher-income countries experience a greater negative impact on fixed asset growth due to temperature uncertainty. As income levels double, the negative impact of temperature uncertainty on fixed asset growth becomes more severe by 0.63 percentage points.

2. The impact is more severe in industries with high investment irreversibility, such as infrastructure.

Key findings:

1. Higher temperature uncertainty leads to a decrease in firms' fixed asset growth. For every 1 degree increase in temperature uncertainty, firms' growth rate of fixed assets decreases by 0.77 percentage points.

Our new #WorldBank research reveals a significant link between temperature uncertainty and reduced firm growth.

Here's the link including the replication files.

Because moderates all over democratic world have no recipe against destructive social media dynamics.

Interesting but how does the pseudo out of sample forecast look? High R² could be sign of over fitting

When I say that the right is dominating the left on almost all platforms, this is what I mean. I hope Democratic officials take this into account every day. If you want an ecosystem that will advocate for YOU, then YOU need to help build it. Give interviews to creators, break news with creators...

The majority of news influencers are conservative men, study finds The latest Pew Research report on news content creators paints a damning picture of our skewed information ecosystem

One of my unpopular opinions is that creators are dramatically more exposed to ugly market forces than the imperfect mass media they’re replacing, and we’re going to miss the anticommercial tendencies inside of legacy newsrooms once they’re finally gone.

www.usermag.co/p/the-majori...

Right-wing propaganda on social media is extremely effective in creating an alternate reality

"40 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans surveyed said they’d become more conservative from their TikTok usage. Half of the Democrats surveyed said they’d grown more liberal"

How a right-coded media environment helped Trump win TikTok, X, and the manosphere are pushing young voters away from Dems.

Best piece so far on why social media will erode the solution-oriented public discourse... or what's left of it.

Social media isn't fully recognized as the key driver behind the rise of right-wing extremism across Western democracies.

Could the 538 team come over here pretty please