In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31).

Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.

Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.

Platner has outperformed Mills in general election matchups against Collins in the last five publicly released polls:

Emerson:
🔵 Platner +7
🔵 Mills +3

OnMessage (R):
🔵 Platner +2
🟡 Tie

Quantus (R):
🔵 Platner +7
🔴 Collins +2

Pan Atlantic:
🔵 Platner +4
🟡 Tie

UNH:
🔵 Platner +11
🔵 Mills +1

In general election matchups vs. Collins, Platner outperforms Mills among 13 of 17 subgroups, the exceptions being:

4-Year College Grads — Exact tie

Women — Mills does 0.3 points better than Platner

Democrats — Mills does 1 point better

Age 70+ — Mills does 2 points better

In general election matchups vs. Collins, Platner outperforms Mills among 13 of 17 subgroups, the exceptions being:

4-Year College Grads — Exact tie

Women — Mills does 0.3 points better than Platner

Democrats — Mills does 1 point better

Age 70+ — Mills does 2 points better

The last three non-partisan and independent polls of the Democratic primary:

Emerson: 🔵 Platner +27 (55-38)

Pan Atlantic Research: 🔵 Platner +7 (46-39)

UNH: 🔵 Platner +38 (64-26)

—

Average: 🔵 Platner +24

Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.

Dem Primary Crosstabs:

Men: 🔵 Platner +41
Women: 🔵 Platner +18

Democrats: 🔵 Platner +24
Indies: 🔵 Platner +33

Age 18-39: 🔵 Platner +36
Age 40-49: 🔵 Platner +20
Age 50-59: 🔵 Platner +48
Age 60-69: 🔵 Platner +20
Age 70+: 🔵 Platner +14

Platner also leads across every level of educational attainment

Platner is the only one of the three candidates with a net positive favorability rating.

If you re-calculate favorability among only those who have heard of each candidate:

Platner: 🟢 52.5-47.5 (+5)
Mills: 🔴 43-57 (-14)
Collins: 🔴 40-60 (-20)

New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters)

DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE)

🔵 55% Platner (+27)
🔵 28% Mills

—

GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE)

🔵 48% Platner (+7)
🔴 41% Collins

🔵 46% Mills (+3)
🔴 43% Collins

This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos)

Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):

Yeah that’s my read too

@coleurbanist.bsky.social

High turnout in the open seat Dem primaries in IL-07 (touches 23 wards in central/South Side/West/Northwest Sides) & IL-09 (touches 7 wards in the Far North/North Lakefront) is very important for Stratton to run up the score in Chicago — necessary to offset expected deficits downstate.

Kelly is more likely to pull from Stratton citywide, but her congressional district only touches five wards (4, 5, 7, 9, 10 — the last of which is majority Latino and expected to favor Raja).

Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions.

Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards.

Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards.

Gray wards are usually competitive.

And here are the full region definitions:

Here ya go!

🔵 68% think the MD Senate should vote on the map the House of Delegates passed, which would flip one seat to Dems, giving them a 8D-0R map (the Dem-led Senate, led by Senate President @SenBillFerg, is currently refusing to hold a debate or a vote on it)

🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800
likely Dem primary voters in Maryland
(2/8-11) 🚨

🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it

Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district

Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points

Buckle up.

Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.

He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.

I’m sticking with Graham.

3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!

Almost to the finish line folks! ✊

Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.

NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.

Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.

Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.

So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.

So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?

Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?

But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.

Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).

And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).

Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders

Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)

With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.

But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.

Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors

But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition

Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.

The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.

Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.

In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:

🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided

So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.