The Trump State Dept has been weaponizing the language of “values” to undermine the EU and advance far right political actors. Turns out one of its driving forces is a JD Vance protege barely out of college, described as a “savage conservative” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/w...
I think the Hungary over-indexing goes beyond small samples/rare events, at least among US and European scholars/observers. Something about the way that Orban tapped into culture war debates and relished in the global spotlight made him more of a fixation than he might have been otherwise
Agreed. Huge hindsight bias in commentary on opposition strategies. Often structural conditions and opposition choices converge with a lot of luck in the mix
We can and should learn from successes across cases. But we don’t have to try and make everything into a ready-made formula for victory
That being said, huge victory. And vibes (as with elections) have consequences
Hungarian election certainly portends a vibe shift in how we think and talk about the global health of democracy. But just as Orban’s rise probably occupied too much of the imagination previously, we risk over indexing on his loss as well. The broader systemic shifts are real and have implications
I should note that the ideological convictions here are relatively shallow in the traditional sense: Orbán’s opponent Péter Magyar is quite conservative. But it’s more about vibes than policy positions. What’s clear is that it has very little to do with realpolitik
Of course, as with everything Trump, it's highly inconsistent (sometimes ideology seems to matter little).
But it does help explain the odd choice of going to the mat for an unpopular Russian-aligned leader in a relatively small Eastern European nation. Ideology still matters
END/
I have written about this phenomenon - what I call the "new values-based foreign policy" (see here: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u... ) The Trump administration has not abandoned interventionism based on values; it has instead reoriented the values around which policy decisions are made
6/
Despite the admin's attempt to position itself as "transactionalist" in foreign policy, it's approach has instead been highly ideological at key moments. Hungary is a perfect example. They're backing Viktor Orbán because key MAGA leaders (esp Vance) see him as an ideological ally
5/
It's possible these moves are driven by Trump personally, but more likely they are the product of influence within and on his inner circle. And that's where things get interesting
There have been direct efforts to influence Trump and his people, and they're often pushing on an open door
4/
It's a similar playbook to the one that Trump deployed in Honduras during elections there last year. In that case, it was seemingly successful (although hard to tell exactly what swayed votes given how close the result was) www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
3/
Trump's promise of economic aid contingent on an increasingly unlikely victory in Sunday's election by incumbent Viktor Orbán comes after JD Vance visited Hungary to try and shore up Orbán's position in the polls
2/
The Iran war has decimated Trump's "isolationist" credentials. But flying more under the radar on this front has been his administration's aggressive intervention in Hungary's domestic politics. It's worth understanding what's driving this, so a brief 🧵
1/
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
That context leaves me less critical of the NUG's performance and less pessimistic about the opposition's longer-term prospects than some quoted in the NYT article above (though I wouldn't say I'm an optimist).
Being in opposition is just *hard* and the long game is far from played out in Myanmar
Myanmar's previous gov-in-exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), faced a similar trajectory in the 1990s and 2000s. Same goes for parallel government entities formed in Belarus, Venezuela, and elsewhere
3/
A sobering reality is that the efficacy of opposition initiatives like these tends to erode over time. Absent game-changing successes, internal criticism mounts and foreign partners lose faith
2/
Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance.
It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research
🧵 1/
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons.
These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators
New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now
Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage.
CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.
RA Position!
@ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
- interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and
- familiar with data collection
apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy”
Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy
www.vox.com/politics/472...
‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position!
@osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics
✅familiar with data collection
Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress'
Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
America still has a values-based foreign policy
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
Isn’t this extremely blatantly illegal and unenforceable? H1B fees are set by Congressional statute. I’m confused why all the reporting treats this as a real thing.
There are advantages to keeping the locus of debate more local. Election admin has become more politicized in recent years but not as much as most other issues. And people trust their local officials. Congressional hearings could polarize it further. But, as always, tough to know the right strategy