Mr Musk

“I know, on a day like today, people who like politics will try to make this all about politics, about this or that strategy, targeting these voters, responding to that party. No. I am doing this because it is right, because it is fair, and because it is what I believe in.”

Starmer being meta

Fi hefyd! If Trump says we’re bigly respected it must be true

Proud to live in a big and highly respected country

How does 30% rack up against Plaid’s historic peaks? Is it a record high?

Wondering what their ceiling is.

I have been “Riverminded” by CapCut… these features were free before #BlackMirror

The Settlers review – this vital film forces Louis Theroux to do something he’s never done before The documentarian manages to stay calm and polite as guns are repeatedly pointed at him in the West Bank. Then someone shoves him …

Just watched this and agree it was exceptional

Glad to be Welsh sometimes (most the time)

Lib Dems back ban on playing music and videos on public transport in England Under the plan, those who flout the prohibition could face a maximum fine of £1,000

Same in Wales please

Very astute analysis. Enjoyed reading this 👏

Next Pope Odds: Who Will Take Over in Vatican After Passing of Pope Francis? Pope Francis passed away on Monday morning, just hours after his final Easter service. Who will get the nod to replace him in the Vatican next week? Peter Alexis explores the process of electing a new...

Today I learned you can bet on the next Pope

Pope Francis has died, the Vatican says Francis became pope in 2013. In recent years, the 88-year-old was forced to cancel some events, sometimes at the last minute, because of his health.

😦

I see the latest subject of faux outrage in Wales is tram-trains without toilets. When was the last time you found a train toilet on the London Underground?

Scientists find promising hints of life on distant planet K2-18b Scientists find new but tentative evidence that a faraway world orbiting another star may be home to life.

Such an impressive and exciting discovery. We're talking about a planet 700 TRILLION miles away.

"The amount we estimate of this gas in the atmosphere is thousands of times higher than what we have on Earth. So, if the association with life is real, this planet will be teeming with life."

Voting intention among Brits with/without degree education (April)

With degree

Labour 31%
Conservative 19%
Lib Dem 17%
Reform UK 15%
Greens 7%

Without degree

Reform 29%
Conservative 26%
Labour 19%
Lib Dem 12%
Greens 9%

% of Brits with a favourable view of… (13/14 April)

Green Party 41% 🟢
Liberal Democrats 36% 🟠
Labour Party 29% 🔴
Reform UK 28% 🟣
Starmer 28% 🔴
Farage 27% 🟣
Davey 24% 🟠
Conservatives 24% 🔵
Rayner 21% 🔴
Badenoch 16% 🔵
Reeves 14% 🔴
Denyer 8% 🟢

If I see one more politician posting their ChatGPT action figure …

Too easy

I’m all for football analysis but seeing more and more ridiculous posts like this where people mistake fancy words for thoughtful analysis

Heliocentric attacks 🤣

Not quite Glastonbury is it

Black Mirror, Common People, so so good.

Can’t believe I predicted the plot of #DoctorWho

Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse

What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories?

In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition.

Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.

Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists

What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid.

Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour.

Still not enough for majority even with Tories.

Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives

In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems.

Plaid +2 seats
Tories +1
Lib Dems -1
Labour -2

Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.

Scenario 2 - Labour Win Over Reform Supporters

In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform.

Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain.

Scenario 1 - Labour Win Over Progressives

In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens.

This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd.

Scenario 0 - Current Polling
Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%.

This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24).

Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition.

Senedd seat projections A Flourish data visualization by Sam Portillo

A non-exhaustive, way-too-early experiment of different vote share scenarios and how they would translate into #Senedd seats. Seat projections by @cavendishcymru.bsky.social

A thread 🧵

public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...

Mario Kart World

Take
My
Money