In my piece last week about the US not understanding war, it was said that one problem was the US finds war too "easy" (with disastrous results). In this piece I explain how that works and why US assumptions about war are built often on unreality. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Stop praising Orbán for not attempting a coup.
He only stepped down because Magyar's win was too massive to steal.
He rigged the constitution, captured the institutions, and used state media to his advantage.
He did everything he could to destroy democracy, and he failed
If you haven't yet seen this:
bsky.app/profile/phil...
No Cards, huh?
Respect to Germany
Finally, Ukraine is remaking its military, would that the US would listen to it instead of pompously telling Ukraine what to do.
Just sent out my free weekend update. This week the big story was that Germany bet on Ukraine, not as a supplicant but as a defense partner. The USA, otoh, bluffed and then, as it always does, protected Putin. Shame on you who fell for it. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
To understand why the USA is where it is today, all you need to do is see that Trump cannot tolerate even the mildest, insightful criticism from the Pope, but Trump will allow Putin to humiliate him deeply and constantly, while still craving Putin’s approval.
This is Putin humiliating Trump. Lukashenko is just Putin’s lapdog. It’s fascinating that Putin can do this on the day that Trump does Russia another favor by extending sanctions relief. And as Russia still helps Iran fight the USA.
The US is pathetic.
Latest in @theatlantic.com The Ukrainians are now longer pretending that Donald Trump's USA is their friend. Their honesty is important as they seem to understand how much Trump is helping Putin and how important it is that Europe stick together. Gift Link. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
The only good thing of the last ten days is that the chorus of Trump defenders who were crowing that because the US and Israel dropped alot of bombs, that they won the war.
That narrative seems to have gone away.
Please read this thread. Of course Trump surrendered.
...still have their nuclear program and have Trump promising to return them $20 billion in frozen assets.
The markets also have concluded that this is the end, Trump has thrown in the towel.
A massive strategic failure by the USA.
We need to be honest about what we are seeing here. The Iranian government is still the same theocratic dictatorship and the Iranian people are in desperate straits after the US promised them liberation. The Iranians still control the Strait of Hormuz, still maintain their right to collect tolls...
Looks more and more like the whole US blockade was a sham.
I've been reading recently about how the generals of 1914 were completely unprepared for how new technology was to create the sort of war which developed on the Western Front. Perhaps the same holds for the US and Russia; but Ukraine got wise to it
The Ukrainians thankfully did not pay attention and fought their own war. Now Russian soldiers are surrendering to Ukrainian machines and European leaders are saying the mathematics of the war favor Ukraine.
The US needs humility and to rethink its entire analytical framework.
Just sent out this heartfelt piece. The US is beset but refusing to acknowledge that it faces a massive crisis in its understanding of war. For years it lectured Ukraine on drafting 18-24 year olds and sending them to the front. This would have been a disaster. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Too many people seem to accept the argument that while it is terrible for other countries to kill civilians in war, when their own country does it, it can be justified.
Explains much of the strategic and ethical disaster we are facing.
“To resign in protest is to choose the purity of public dissent over the grinding, unglamorous work of internal constraint. Johnson chose the latter. McMaster called it dereliction. It may have been the opposite.” Brilliant; wish I’d written this, @sodrock.bsky.social
Remarkable that Ukraine isn’t hiding that the US is not their friend. Zelensky kept up the pretense for a while, acting like Trump sought peace despite seeing the pro-Russia shift.
The change suggests not only no faith in the US, but also that they don’t need to keep up the show for Europe anymore.
It is why one can never back Trump and support Ukraine. If you back Trump, you are and have always been an enemy of Ukrainian independence and freedom.
I know it might feel good to attack Vance for saying it was a great achievement to cut off all US aid to Ukraine. However that was never up to Vance, it was entirely Trump’s decision.
If you attack Vance and don’t mention Trump, you are spreading a false idea.
Shameful for us. Totally reasonable response from Zelensky.
Zelensky just out with a long comment after the latest Ramstein meeting. Optimistic and gives thanks to many partners. Not a single mention of the US helping Ukraine.
The Ukrainians are not hiding the fact that the US is no longer their friend.
So now it's all about stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
PPOB: "[T]he US had an agreement negotiated by the Obama Administration (JCPOA) which had as its purpose delaying any Iranian nuclear program".
Remember NAFTA rebranded as USMCA and declared to be completely new and superior?
Also, we finally have clarity. Even though over the last 6 weeks the US government has announced oodles of different strategic war goals, now there is only one. That alone is telling.
Finally, stop calling US and Israeli bombing "precise" or "surgical". It is not true.
Just sent out my free midweek update. The US blockade went into effect two days ago, and the markets have decided that it is all bluff and this will be over soon with a US-Iran deal. The contrast is fascinating--its a gamble that they know what the Iranians will do. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
So after 7 weeks and countless different strategic justifications for the war (remember when it was to sink the Iranian Navy), we have now the administration saying the war has only 1 purpose. That is to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapons program.
Wasnt that what Trump "obliterated" last year?