UN closure of South Sudan’s Akobo base sends the wrong political signal For a little over a year now, the civil war in South Sudan has reignited. War crimes by all parties are now commonplace, while the dire…

#UN closure of #SouthSudan 's Akobo base sends the wrong political signal

#Africa

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Somalia’s constitutional crisis: A high-stakes gamble On 2 February 2026, Banaadir regional police stormed the federal parliament in Mogadishu, halting any proceedings.  Journalists were expelled, MPs threatened to be shot, and a female MP physically ass...

My latest piece on " #Somalia 's constitutional crisis: A high-stakes gamble" and adjoining civil conflicts.

"The year ahead will rock the boat; yet not every beden sinks in a storm."

horninstitute.org/somalias-con...

#Africa

- AS controls 2/3 of Southwest state. Infighting between SNA and SNA-allied militias and its opposition will play in the organization’s hands.
- Here, like elsewhere, troubles are not however, with a big election year on the horizon.
#Somalia

- A possible next step might be a larger #war for Jubaland. Nevertheless, international pressure weighs in favour of mediation, which Laftagareen had refused.
#Somalia

- #Ethiopia has lost a key ally. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has again recently vented his grievances against Addis. The fight in Southwest against AS remains a vital Ethiopian interest.
#Somalia

- Militarily and politically, this is a resounding federal victory. Laftagareen has resigned, and Southwest state will now align on the new constitution and implement electoral reforms ahead of the 2027 election year.
#Somalia

Somali army takes over key city in Southwest as state leader resigns Somali federal government hails Baidoa's transition, urging peace and unity amid political changes and rising tensions.

Early thoughts on the #war for Southwest ( #Somalia):

www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/...

On the other, there was never any hope for #Jubaland or #Puntland to get on board, even before the crisis with #Ethiopia and the #UAE.

#Somalia

On the one hand, Mogadiscio must not lose sight that the necessary reform can only reach its state- and security-building objective if it allows for the law and democratic values to prevail eventually.

#Somalia

Madobe has recently been reelected for a third term, after constitutional changes, a fact that would have raised alarm in any sovereign country. These maneuvers are neither in the national nor regional interest, but serve personal ambitions and clanic rivalries.

#Somalia

Today, most of Southwest state is held by Al Shabaab. Many government-held towns are still besieged by AS. Yet Laftagareen only seeks, in a manner similar to Puntland’s Deni and Jubaland’s Madobe, a reelection on his own terms.

#Somalia

The easy answer is to call for the status quo to be reestablished, in line with demands from the “periphery” This “periphery” are in effect small dictatorships which positions align with that of their leaders. Laftagareen, in Southwest state, has only been elected once, in 2018, for a 4 year mandate

Surely, the Mogadiscio administration has time and again been clumsy and heavy-handed (an article follows on that aspect). However, the finalization of the constitution was absolutely necessary for any hope at stabilizing the Somali state.

#Somalia

Somalia: Southwest State Says Federal Government Actions Amount to “Direct War”

Yes, this is yet another civil #war brewing in #Somalia.

This one is to be added to the war over the new Northeast state, the war with #Jubaland, the Hiraan-Hirshabelle conflict and #Puntland ’s “secession”

www.garoweonline.com/en/news/soma...

The situation in #Sudan 's "triangle of death" (El Obeid, Dilling and Kadugli, in Kordofan) remains precarious for the SAF and civilians.

Ad Damazin, capital of Blue Nile state, is now also under direct Tasis threat.

A SAF/SPLA-IO alliance means, at least temporarily, the threat from #SouthSudan subsided, or is of a much lesser importance.

This marks the first success of a new #UAE / Tasis (the RSF/SPLM-N alliance) to open a diversionary front in Blue Nile state, with a rear basis in Benishangul-Gumuz (Northwestern #Ethiopia).

Map: Sudanese Rebels Overrun Army Garrison at Ethiopia Border Kurmuk town falls to RSF in first major setback for army on new Blue Nile front

Blue Nile RSF-SPLM-N diversion underlines Ethiopian threat with the fall of Kurmuk

#Sudan #Ethiopia

sudanwarmonitor.com/p/sudanese-r...

Investigation | Who is behind the Abiemnom massacre? In the early hours of Sunday, March 1, 2026, armed assailants launched a coordinated attack on Awarpiny, the administrative headquarters of Awarpiny County in South Sudan’s Ruweng Administrative Area ...

A story not only of localized, recurring tensions, but of the civil war to be and how interwoven it is with the civil war in neighbouring (Northern) #Sudan

At least 169 people were killed and subsequently buried in mass graves at Abiemnom.

#SouthSudan

www.sudanspost.com/who-is-behin...

South Africa, other C5 countries and the AU are expected to whitewash South Sudan’s coup and civil… For the past 12 months, the embers of civil war have reignited. The conflict between president Kiir’s SSPDF and vice-president Machar’s…

#SouthAfrica, other C5 countries and the #AU are expected to whitewash #SouthSudan 's coup and civil #war

#R2P #Africa

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South Sudan relapses into civil war: Self-coup, mass atrocities and weaponization of aid

#SouthSudan relapses into civil war: Self-coup, mass atrocities and weaponization of aid

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This is needed on multiple accounts, from a better understanding of foreign imperialism in #China, as well as the mechanics of informal imperialism, to a necessary and belated memorialization of these countries' colonial experience - with consequences on their foreign policies today.

The colonial history of both #Austria and #Hungary, including in #China, have seen a surge in academic interest in recent years.

(PDF) Az Osztrák-Magyar Monarchia gyarmatosító törekvései PDF | Present study’s primary objective is to provide a comprehensive overview of the Austro–Hungarian Empire’s colonial history. The study aims to shed... | Find, read and cite all the research you n...

Glad to see my article "Austro-Hungarian Informal Imperialism in #China, 1869–1917" (2023) quoted in Hopka Zoltán’s recent article "Az Osztrák-Magyar Monarchia gyarmatosító törekvései" (2025) [The colonial ambitions of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy].

www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Sudan’s agricultural collapse RSF “governance” in Central Sudan (2024), war operations there and recurring floods in the last three years have led to a very diminished…

#Sudan s agricultural collapse

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A Israeli military base in Somaliland would entangle it in proxy wars That such a base had not been discussed or demanded as a condition for Israel’s recognition of Somaliland may be true, in which case the…

A Israeli military base in #Somaliland would entangle it in proxy wars

#Israel #Yemen #Iran #Houthis #Palestine #Somalia

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UN rights chief urges immediate ceasefire in South Sudan as fears of war crimes grow 'Civilians are being brutally killed, injured and displaced on a daily basis across South Sudan as hostilities escalate between the army and opposition forces,' says Turk - Anadolu Ajansı

No such thing as "fears".

These constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity, with the shadow of the previous genocide looming large over the nation.

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/un...

US finally address Sudan’s Iranian ties… as it moves away from Iran and stands in solidarity with… In an article addressing the Israel-Iran proxy war and published a year ago, I addressed the issue of a growing Iranian diplomatic clout on…

#US finally address #Sudan s Iranian ties… as it moves away from #Iran and stands in solidarity with Gulf countries

#Terrorism #War #SaudiArabia #MuslimBrotherhood

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Uncertain times ahead for Somalia As promised by president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud when he was elected 4 years ago, Somalia’s constitution has been finalized — nearly 14 years…

Uncertain times ahead for #Somalia

#Terrorism #War #Africa

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The Horn of Africa may be the next target, amid the escalating, near all-out (proxy) war between… The US, Israel, Arab states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran all have varying levels of influence over a number of Horn…

The Horn of #Africa may be the next target, amid the escalating, near all-out (proxy) war between #US #Israel and #Iran

#Yemen #Djibouti #Somaliland #Somalia #Ethiopia

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