A graph of the histogram for frequencies of water sort puzzles with specific numbers of optimal moves to solve. The puzzle setup in this case is containers that are 5 segments high (N=5), with 5 distinct colours (C=5) and 2 empty containers (K=2) at the start/end. The most common number of moves is 19 and the bulk of the distribution is in the range [18, 20]. The distribution is bell-like, but skewed towards smaller values. It is fitted with a skew normal distribution curve that has parameters ξ=20.4, ω=2.38, and α=-1.76.
Finally, adding one extra colour (C=5) is the hardest of all with an average of nearly 19 moves to solve. This was the least surprising to me. Is it a coincidence that this average is 5 moves higher than the C=4 case, or is it a pattern? Is the average 25 if C=6? A question for future research...