To Win a War, Know What You’re Fighting For
Washington and Jerusalem entered the war with three goals, and these goals were in tension from the start.
My latest here: mei.edu/commentary/t...
Tuesday 10:30am EST War with Iran: A view from Israel
I'll be discussing w former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata and with Col. (REt.) Miri Eisin
former advisor to the Israeli PM. Tune in here:
us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Please join for a discussion on "Israel after the ceasefire" with @Nadav_Eyal and @RuthMargalit on Nov 4, the 30th anniversary of the Rabin assassination. Register-->
On Lawfare Daily, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with Dan Byman, Joel Braunold, and @natansachs.bsky.social to discuss Israel's latest offensive in Gaza, its decision to launch airstrikes against Hamas's leadership in Qatar, and Netanyahu's recent meeting with Marco Rubio.
Brookings has been a cherished professional home, and I look forward to celebrating its continued success from just around the corner at MEI.
This move also meant a tough decision to leave @brookings.edu after more than 13 wonderful years. I'm deeply grateful to many colleagues and friends there—past and present—to the leadership of Brookings and its Foreign Policy program, and to my colleagues at the Center for Middle East Policy.
My focus will remain on U.S. foreign policy, Israeli foreign policy, and Israel’s evolving domestic landscape. I'm grateful to Amb. Stuart Jones and Ken Pollack for the opportunity, and I look forward to working with a fantastic group of new colleagues.
Excited to share that I’ll be joining The Middle East Institute as a Senior Fellow starting in September 2025. The need for sound and transformative policy in the Middle East has never been greater, and I'm thrilled to join a dynamic team of experts and practitioners
“They fear Trump more, and they do think he’s unpredictable,” Mr. Sachs said. “The direct talks with Hamas... It’s something that a more iconoclastic president like Trump is willing to do, and Israel is loath to cross him. He has a better chance to more forcefully get whatever direction he wants.”
My non-tariff 2 cents: "The fact that Mr. Netanyahu’s base backs Mr. Trump gives him unique power in the country as Israel and Hamas negotiate the release of hostages and a cease-fire, Mr. Sachs said."...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/u...
On Lawfare Daily, Daniel Byman interviewed Natan Sachs, the Director of the Middle East Program of the Brookings Institution, to discuss Israel's turbulent domestic situation and the renewal of the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...
BREAKING: Jailed leader of Kurdish militants the PKK calls on followers to lay down arms and dissolve the group, potentially ending a long conflict with Turkey
On Lawfare Daily, @sranderson.bsky.social, @natansachs.bsky.social, Dan Byman, Joel Braunold, and Dr. @danaelkurd.bsky.social discussed the terms of the Israel-Gaza ceasefire, who deserves credit, what factors may contribute to its success or failure, and where it is likely to lead.
I did a Q&A with @khuggard.bsky.social for @brookings.edu on "Gaza ceasefire: What the Israel-Hamas agreement means"
www.brookings.edu/articles/gaz...
In the meantime, Ben Gvir out of his ministry would be one more reason to favor a very difficult but ultimately essential deal.
This is what distinguishes statesmen from politicians: Does Netanyahu go forward with the national interest despite political risks? Netanyahu has so far chosen to be Bibi the politician rather than a statesmen during a historic crisis. The Trump factor may offer an exit ramp, but it's no guarantee
Ben Gvir alone does not spell the end of Bibi's coalition, but combined with new leverage to Smotrich, and a looming crisis over conscription law (with the Haredi parties) and a budget that must pass by March 31, and there is a major crisis to be had.
Ben Gvir announced that if the deal is approved he and his faction would resign, but not topple the government, possibly returning if phase 2 did not materialize. The key now is Smotrich, and his pressure on Netanyahu is real.
Same here!
Ceasefire Israeli politics: Itamar Ben Gvir likely to announce his resignation as minister. Key: will he vote against the coalition, esp on budget (which must pass by March 31). All eyes on Smotrich after this.
Some version of the Biden Israel-Gulf “grand bargain” could be brought back from the dead, but only if Bibi makes some bold political decision--the complete opposite of what he's done for years. Could Trump factor in that?>
This will determine whether a "day after" can finally begin and whether the remaining Israeli hostages are left behind or brought home. There are influential actors in the Arab world willing to help in Gaza, but a lot needs to happen to unlock that, and we're still far.>
Trump's appeal to Mideast rulers can help get things done, if one decides to get the right things done and keeps at it—not an obvious thing with so many competing priorities.
Will admin force a 2nd phase or call victory and let things stand? Unclear Bibi wants a 2nd phase at all>
The Trump effect is real here, aided by a Biden team willing to share the role already now. Netanyahu does not want to start off on the wrong foot with Trump. In the Middle East, Trump has the advantage of speaking the language of the small number of men who matter most. >>
Iran’s axis: The Gaza war was part of a broader one. It is precisely where Iran had its axis that we’ve seen devastating wars in the last 15 months, and not elsewhere. With Iran’s axis badly hurt, Hamas’ position changes too.>
Some things are made clear now but huge question marks remain: Both Israel and Hamas wasted bloody months when they could have saved so many of their own people. Each, at times, blatantly avoided a deal. "Sacrosanct" positions and political obstacles can, in fact, be overcome>
Israel will also allow Palestinians to move back north to what remains of the Northern Gaza Strip, in sharp contrast to its devastating operations there in recent months. But still unclear is the truly massive reconstruction and relief needed there.>
Hamas concedes, for now, a full Israeli withdrawal Gaza (which, they had on October 6th). For now, Israel redeploys within the Gaza Strip. It will leave the Rafah crossing with Egypt, which Netanyahu previously insisted was vital and worth fighting for for long bloody months. >
A ceasefire-hostage deal set to be announced. Many months and much destruction too late, but better than never: In the first stage, most vulnerable hostages and a large number of Palestinian prisoners released. Hostilities would pause and a surge of aide into Gaza could follow. >
Is #Israel stronger today than it was on October 7?
Joined @NPR.org Weekend Edition to answer this and other Qs with Scott Simon (with whom I spoke on that terrible day).
one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5233...
