NEW: Where are voters landing on the North Sea oil debate post-Iran?
A quick thread on some of the fluidities and ambiguities, which I think can tell you something about polling/public opinion itself.
Includes some new polling and message testing via @yougov.co.uk for @persuasionuk.bsky.social 🧵
Worth reading @samalvis.bsky.social, who's been advocating this very move
bsky.app/profile/sama...
A classic of the genre.
As we've argued throughout the campaign, the disconnect between political analysis and policy analysis has become disconnected to the point of severe dysfunction.
The former becoming a form of irrelevant Kremlinology, the latter falling entirely by the wayside.
Offord on the telly again talking about getting '800,000 economically inactive people back to work'.
High time journalists start properly interrogating this abject nonsense.
bsky.app/profile/step...
And suddenly, at least for a moment, everything seemed right in the world...
@boardsofcanada.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/boar...
📻 We are delighted that @stephenboydippr.bsky.social was with Bernard Ponsonby on Go Radio in a debate structured around our blog on what will make a good Holyrood manifesto.
Was he assured that the manifestos would pass the test? Listen and find out! 👀
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C41V...
Memo to messrs Offord and Findlay. Of the 790k people in Scotland who are currently economically inactive:
122k are retired
185k are students
124k are looking after family
267k are long-term sick
The idea that '800k inactive people' are choosing not to work to live a life on benefits is ludicrous
Optimistic noises coming from Hungary just about sustaining me through this utterly lamentable BBC Scottish leaders debate
1/ This Yanis Varoufakis screed made me so angry the only way I can salvage my day is to go through it line by line as catharsis.
You are welcome to come on the journey toward my aneurism with me.
An angry h/t to @sianushka.bsky.social for bringing this into my life.
unherd.com/2026/04/why-...
Essential read by @kennyfarq.bsky.social concluding with the under-appreciated truth:
"...that anti-poverty measures are among the most powerful supply-side drivers of long-term national productivity"
(see also our recent More than a Safety Net report - link 👇)
www.thetimes.com/article/e11e...
Looking forward to joining @lindasomerville.bsky.social @lmacfarlane.bsky.social and others on the panel for the @scottishtuc.bsky.social Public Services Webinar at 12.30 today.
Register here events.teams.microsoft.com/event/98e687...
The @scottishtuc.bsky.social is hosting a webinar on industrial strategy at 12.30. I'll be contributing with Chris Hamilton, convener at Grangemouth refinery, Stephen Boyd @ipprscotland.bsky.social and Satwat Rehman of the Just Transition Commission. Join🔽
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5148ed...
New substack: "Talk about migrants being a drain on the exchequer is a pseudo-technocratic cover for disliking immigration on other grounds." chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-the-fis...
As it is Good Friday what do Britons think Christian values are? Top is ‘treating others as you would like to be treated’, forgiveness and compassion for those who are suffering. While values associated with debates around ‘Christian Nationalism’ come to the bottom of the list
"We have spent decades arguing over the proper role of the govt relative to the market and meanwhile the performance of both has grown ever less satisfactory because of the ascendence of the norm that only suckers expose themselves to risk by standing on principle"
open.substack.com/pub/ryanaven...
With the starting gun fired on the 2026 Holyrood election, the public deserve an honest conversation about governing Scotland.
Party manifestos will be soon be released - which begs the question: What makes a good Holyrood election manifesto in 2026? Here are 5 tests:
www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
Analysis of policy and analysis of politics have become decoupled, when they should be intertwined, too often leading to a form of Kremlinology masquerading as political analysis, setting aside the policies shaping people’s lives in favour of gossip.
We seek to correct that:
Our latest report warns further public sector job cuts could hollow out essential services just as demand rises.
Public services need more investment not less.
📣@CaseySmithIPPR outlines how choices made now will shape Scotland’s public services for years.
⚠️ Scotland could be sleepwalking into austerity ⚠️
🔴Our new analysis warns looming public sector job cuts could hollow out essential services just as demand rises.
📢The choices made now will shape Scotland’s public services for years.
Read the report ⤵️
www.ippr.org/articles/mor...
Thread ⤵️
The headline child poverty rate (21% average across financial years 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25) does not bode well for Scottish government to hit its 2030 target (10%).
But with changes to the methodology behind the stats there is noise in the data that we should avoid over-interpreting.
With Scotland going into a major election, parties pledging to tackle child poverty must be clear that the issue is a structural feature of an unequal society.
We respond to today's child poverty stats⤵️
www.ippr.org/media-office...
“It’s essential that the UK and Scottish governments work together to ensure this project is pushed forward and that ground is broken on the factory as soon as possible."
Read our full response to Vesta's decision to invest in a new nacelle and hub factory in Scotland⤵️
www.ippr.org/media-office...
New child poverty stats are due tomorrow, but Scotland is already projected to miss its 2030 target by a wide margin. In this blog, @davehawkey.bsky.social looks at why progress has stalled and why reducing child poverty requires a more equal distribution of income⤵️
www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
ICYMI: Important comment from @stephenboydippr.bsky.social @ipprscotland.bsky.social
@dailyrecord.co.uk: "There is no viable path to eradicating child poverty that doesn’t involve increasing the Scottish Child Payment and/or other benefits."👇
"At the coming election, politicians need to be clear about their strategy for reducing child poverty. Pretending it can be eradicated with current levels of tax and benefits isn’t serious."
Me in the @dailyrecord.co.uk.web.brid.gy
New stats coming this week
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politic...
"...this is actually something that I think should make people stop and think: Ukraine has provided the United States with more aid in 2026 than the United States has provided to Ukraine"
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Got the sleeper to London on Wednesday evening. Won't be in a hurry to repeat the experience...
Not been this excited over a new book for a long time
