Analysts say the problems identified in the Borjas paper show that the $100,000 H-1B fee is flawed and are a tax on talent. @mclem.org says a correct analysis would imply the optimal tax on foreign-born talent is zero. @adamposen.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social
www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
But reality’s a bitch, especially with Trump. Brexit Britain is most exposed to needing imports which are soaring thanks to Trump’s war & anaemic growth stalls.
Now the toxic reality of stagflation - which @adamposen.bsky.social always predicted was inevitable brexit consequence - looks certain.
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar
Hugely important NEW essay by Maurice Obstfeld at @piie.com ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focused conversations.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
This is the big one, MUST READ
Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The broader US economy hasn’t had a big pullback in economic activity. But a shrinking workforce and a falling #breakeven #employment growth rate mean the labour market is tighter than what headline numbers suggest. @adamposen.bsky.social has argued this would lead to higher #services #inflation.
“Anybody who says we do not have a boom in a large part of the economy is wrong,” says @adamposen.bsky.social. “Right now the US has on balance, much going for it despite many, many self-inflicted wounds.”
But “over time shooting oneself in the limbs will slow you down even if you miss your chest.”
Adam Posen (@adamposen.bsky.social) has it correct here. There are very few positive signs for the dollar right now, and a long list of negative signs that seems to be growing by the day.
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead? @adamposen.bsky.social says it’s the descending dollar. www.notus.org/perspectives/which-issue...
AGENDA UPDATE: At 12:30 PM ET, @adamposen.bsky.social will present new inflation forecasts from his recent collaborative work with Peter Orszag: "The Risk of Higher US Inflation in 2026." Stream it live below.
The far right authoritarian party’s ongoing project of Making Nineteenth Century America Great Again - complete with the spoils system, Jim Crow, unvaccinated populations dying, & a federal government that can’t regulate anything - continues apace.
UPDATE: At 12:30 PM ET, I will discuss with Karen Dynan inflation forecasts from my recent work with Peter Orszag: "The Risk of Higher US Inflation in 2026." Stream it live:
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
www.piie.com/events/2026/...
LIVE webstream watch now:
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
@PIIE.com
www.piie.com/events/2026/...
The economic toll of Trump’s policies will soon be visible writes @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Important points @dianeswonk.bsky.social
Some of us are worried, but the data disruptions will mask some pressures through Spring. That is problematic. The care economy diverged in terms of inflation in ways that do not square. In-home elder care soared over summer, but childcare showed historic weakness after soaring pre-shutdown.
@adamposen.bsky.social & Lazard CEO Peter Orszag write that inflation could exceed 4% by the end of 2026.
Hence the 75 mega mergers of more than $10bn we saw in 2025. What matters now is how policymakers and corporates manage ongoing risk. Europe will act against redirected Chinese imports; I think - and @adamposen.bsky.social agrees - delayed tariff impacts will keep US inflation sticky.
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead?
@slaughteram.bsky.social, @jasonfurman.bsky.social,
Kamissa Camara, M. Ayhan Kose, Laura Alfers, @adamposen.bsky.social, Kari Heerman, Natalie Baker and @ianbremmer.com weigh in.
www.notus.org/perspectives...
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead?
@adamposen.bsky.social says a descending dollar in 2026.
@jasonfurman.bsky.social says the trade imbalance between China & the West could reshape geopolitics.
Read more in @notusperspectives.bsky.social:
I spoke with @jsummers.bsky.social for All Things Considered about what Fed independence means in practice, and why the attack on Chair Powell is such a big deal for the US economy.
This will air at tonight @npr.org at 5:05 ET and also will be on their podcast today.
This is what uncertainty looks like.
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking.
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.
This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention.
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
Thank you @mcopelov.bsky.social
Always worth re-reading @adamposen.bsky.social on our unhealthy obsession with China shocks & "good" manufacturing jobs in the 2020s:
New interview in Le Monde (en francais)
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
