Stagflation

The Fed Chair is describing stagflation but does not want to say the word.

When the Nazi group chat ruins your talking points

According to Goldman Sachs, 88% of US tariffs are being paid by American companies and consumers. Only 9% are being paid by foreign exporters.
#TrumpTariffs

“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying”
― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Opinion | A new era of government censorship has dawned Donald Trump fancies himself a champion of free speech. Oh, really?

A new era of government censorship has begun.
It started with the silencing of scientific speech, when the admin blocked release of research on bird flu. But MAGA has also cracked down on other wrongthink—on race, geography (!), and of course Trump himself
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Powell: "In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside -- a challenging situation."

(In other words, stagflation)

Court rules Lisa Cook can remain a Fed governor for now while fighting Trump’s attempt to fire her A federal court has ruled that embattled Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her position while she fights President Donald Trump’s efforts to fire her.

BREAKING: A federal court rules that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her position while she fights President Donald Trump’s efforts to fire her.

wall street surges as the only jobs left are burrito chauffeur or ice agent

Nearly 600 economists signed an open letter warning that firing Fed governor Lisa Cook threatens the Fed’s independence and erodes trust in a key pillar of the U.S. financial system.

US sliding towards 1930s-style autocracy, warns Ray Dalio Billionaire hedge fund boss says other investors are too scared of Trump to speak out

DALIO: ".. The great excesses that are now projected as a result of the new budget will likely cause a debt-induced heart attack in the relatively near future. .. I’d say three years, give or take a year or two.”

@financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/b86b...

What Happens If AI Hits An Energy Wall? The technology driving the economy has some big problems

This is the way the bubble ends: Not with a pop, but with smog and brownouts. [Disappointed that some readers didn't recognize the TS Eliot ref]

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what-happe...

> @governor.ca.gov

TS LOMBARD: “.. The saving grace for the Fed is that inflation lags employment and employment (payroll
growth) has slowed. Unless payrolls U-turn in August with an upward revision to July, .. the Fed will be hard-pressed to cut .. Betting on a Sep cut is a bet on continued payrolls weakness.”

Core CPI, 3-month annualized:

In May: 1.7%

In June: 2.4%

In July: 2.8% 🤡

@opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Latest CBO analysis of the full distributional effects of the Trump budget (the "One Big Bill") just landed. They blew out the budget, see how big of a slice you got.
www.cbo.gov/interactive/...

JPMORGAN, on why it now sees four Fed cuts:

“.. The slide in private payroll growth below a 1%ar over the past three months is a development rarely seen outside of periods in which the economy is sliding into or moving out of a recession. .. a stall speed alert has been sounded.” 👀

This is complete fantasy. Just an absurd made up lie. The EU is not giving Trump “$600 billion to invest anyway I want.” They aren’t giving him 1 dollar to invest. It is just astonishing that a president can go on a financial network and lie like this & it barely registers. bsky.app/profile/atru...

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

Trump’s felony convictions were for making up numbers to make himself appear worth more than he was.

His 29 club championships in golf are because he makes up his own score.

No surprise he wants people in charge of government statistics who will make up the numbers he wants.

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.

It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.

Visualization of an “expensive US stock market”:

@mikezaccardi.bsky.social

The most interesting thing about the EU “deal” is that the US president, a 34X felon who was found guilty of sexual abuse, is trying to cover his other wrongdoings by pardoning a convicted sex offender and child sex trafficker.

Oh my… Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just corrected Trump’s math on national television, live, and called out his disinformation.

Awkward moment as Fed Chair Powell fact-checks Trump while the Mob Boss fishes for different ways to pressure and extort him to lower interest rates.

This is hilarious.

Trump today: "I'm surprised he [Jerome Powell] was appointed. I'm surprised frankly that Biden put him in."

Trump in November 2017: "It is my pleasure and my honour to announce my nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve."

How to sound tough but do nothing: Impose tariffs on a country where we already impose sanctions.

A 100% tariff on almost nothing will do almost nothing.

CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD.

Is America Breaking the Global Economy? What an age of economic uncertainty will mean for the world.

FYI, my thoughts on what to make of a global economy that “is, to put it mildly, in a state of flux.”

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

#economy #cfr