My even hotter take is that "insert economic optimization and break the world" is actually the normal/original operating mode of capitalism and the only thing that kept it at bay in the 20th century was the rise of socialism as a political movement.
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Trump like "could a pedophile do this?" and then posts a genAI slop image of himself as Jesus resurrecting Jeff Epstein in order to fight the Pope. It's unclear what move he was attempting to do.
I think it's interesting to look at this on a log scale because it becomes pretty clear:
1. It craps the pants starting in 1970, not 1980.
2. It actually recovered from 2000 and now the two are running ~parallel. the lines still diverge in absolute terms because of different base.
I think the "vibecession" situation is actually that people have empathy for those of us who are getting the downward slope of the K-shape. or they think "is that going to be me next?"
bsky.app/profile/goli...
And here we go lol.
The authoritarian plurality does not exist anywhere, it's a mirage.
Only scammers and marks.
Proceed accordingly.
Punish accordingly.
Another chunk of "vibecession" is just "enormous variance in daily life".
Pandemic, then 10pct inflation, then home prices doubling, in ~4 years. Even if my salary ~doubled in the same time, this starts feeling like a 24/7 casino. Anxiety and bad vibes ensue.
Of course he does not understand fiddling with the FED ends with inflation expectations unanchoring and a massive shitshow, but the underlying thesis
vibes ~= real estate affordability
Is the bipartisan (see Mamdani) populist vibe and probably the closest one sentence approximation.
I ~agree on complexity but ~60% of the whole ass thing is just this super trivial chart.
You simply cannot convince people that economy is "fine" and "hot" when they cannot afford houses they could ~5 years ago. See alt text.
Trump understands this thats why he wants to fiddle with the Fed.
Is your MAGA neighbor bad or has he been bombarded for years with bespoke brainwashing services provided by Murdoch, Zuck & al.? Who bought those services? What is the meaningful course of action here if the above turns out to be the case?
IIF (and it's a big IIF) Orban loses in a landslide here it destroys the "people bad" theory and what we're left with, however unlikely, is, "a B-movie tier conspiracy of media moguls, elites and intelligence services managed to lie to everybody for quite some time".
This is the fundamentally false premise that people believe, despite all evidence to the contrary.🤷🏿♂️
The truth is:
1) Negative, divisive content, is not the most engaging content. It's not close.
2) Algorithms reward negative, divisive content, because billionaires buy platforms and make it so.
Fun fact, maintaining the naval blockade through the armistice until the final peace treaty was signed was also what the Allies did to Germany after WWI, so there's real precedent for.
For about 1 year they've been in a massive row with open source maintainers because the models were producing tons of slop CVEs, now they're getting some results (after hiring human experts to work through their tooling/harnesses).
In particular Anthropic has recently hired and basically double coated in 100$ bills one of the most reputable *human* cybersecurity researchers in the field, Nicholas Carlini, who's also the guy curating the PRs for the CVEs for them under his personal GH handle ATM.
To be clear AI companies have been hammering this angle now for at least 1 year or more, because the particular policies around CVEs means their PRs *have* to be accepted in short time frames that allow them to do some scalp taking and showing off.
BTW BSD is like <0.2% of systems on the web.
Its an open question if throwing another 100k in the model would yield more distinct results or not.
They ain't melting the NSA anytime soon.
But this is definitely comparable or larger in impact than the advent of fuzzers or static analysis tooling.
I think this really needs a lot of qualifiers.
The freeBSD exploit is ouchie but you just dont run NFS/RPC services on an open machine lol, hardening 101.
The ffmpeg vuln is non exploitable by Anthropics own admission.
The openBSD TCP exploit is annoying but just DoS.
Underrated destroyer of civilization was news media getting article level engagement metrics
Yeah I think this is huge. Fuzziness in what made money allowed in depth reporting to be subsidized by sports stuff, more challenging art to be subsidized by crowd pleaser stuff etc etc. Granular data was bad.
The system goes online August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th
At 2:14:00.001 a.m., chobit888 takes down right-pad package from npm and kills the whole Skynet infra
with how much Fascism 1 loved radio, i feel like the main factor is new forms of media/communication emerging in a population with no immunity to it yet
This gets into murky territory I guess because you have to involve distinctly human intents and situations. Like is RL trauma-like? hard to say. My baseline impression is more that many people like being glazed, see the whole 4o debacle lol. Basically AI lands on Dale Carnegie omg.
Counterpoint to this is that legalese and bureaucratic speech are undead anti-language that exist to disempower and/or scam people, and this is a claim that predates AI by decades/centuries, so people dont like AI simply cuz it lands between legalese/linkedinese and sophomoric. Also the glazing ffs.
Oh and I was forgetting that in the process of this failed pivot they also made multibillionaire out of snotty kid who now is into building drones that dont work.
I do work in software, the entire situation in big tech and downstream in software dev works all over is complete lalalaland, driven by opaque, dark forces.
If you've been working in this sector and you've not been preparing for the music to stop anytime now, you're dumber than a rock.
Twitter laid off like 90pct of the workforce and the site is still there. No LLMs involved.
META not 5 years ago burned hundred of billions on a completely failed pivot that would have killed pretty much any other company/executive.
Every analysis of AI should start with "why did the Internet fail in procuding anything of value beyond burrito taxis and a couple people getting richer than God, and also ushered in the Nazi?"
And it is going down _exactly_ as a huge "big nice centralized massively diffused cognitive multiplier buckles under stress" event.
