Ppl forget how much national environment supersedes everything (ironic bc during Trump 1.0, a common refrain from ET is ppl overestimate candidate quality effects)

Finally a poll! Fuck KLB tho

I do think GA shouldn’t be in the swing column this cycle (like NC) but the IA numbers are definitely believable and makes me optimistic that the tariffs + fertilizer/fuel crisis could cause other potentially crucial swings in the other Midwest/Plain States (KS/NE)

Obama spoke to Zohran last year b4 the election and offered to be support but even more importantly, Obama’s longtime close advisor, Patrick Gaspard, was helping Zohran from the start of his campaign bc “he reminded him of Obama”

And Sonny Perdue who really harmed GA public university system after taking over as chancellor is retiring too

Plus we have GA Supreme Court seats up which can help us finally chip away at the GOP majority upholding gerrymanders & bad tax laws but GADems have blundered this gov election so bad

Ppl are (belatedly) just tuning into the GA-Gov race and without polls, it’s making their takes more deranged and annoying 🫠🫠🫠

Like Platner and El-Sayed bros has at least intermittently used polls to justify themselves yet I have seen ppl be vastly more confident in predicting KLB collapse/Esteves rise w/o any data backing them up

Like if Esteves truly thought he was gaining ground, wouldn’t an internal dropped by now???

I have banging my head against a wall about this for a year now. The primary is next month; we got more polls for a more predictable race for 2018!!!!

Like so many ppl are launching takes w/ such confidence w/o any polling backing it up and it’s absurd to me

Truly love how everyone misses the point of First Steps (using the 60s setting to argue we should return to an era of international global cooperation to push for scientific advancement and a better life *for all*) despite it being so blatant

“Corruption is the skeleton key to unlock a winning message for Dems against Trump and the Republicans, esp for presidential candidates”

It's been 50 days. We are slowly sliding into a global gas crisis. At the same time we are slowly sliding into a new normal where renewables ensure we don't have to fear another global gas crisis. But that doesn't solve the crisis we have.

Also he has made no clear moves to prepare for a run

History may not repeat itself but it often rhymes

Ossoff must be a contender despite having no presence in the polls, no public noteworthy policy positions, no theory of the case, no clear coalition but he looks good and speaks well…..where have I heard this story before

Ppl calling Ossoff a contender for 2028 despite no polling evidence, not knowing his substantive policy positions, no clear moves that he’s prepping a presidential run but since he’s good-looking and white

Past is future and future is past

It’s so annoying how a lot of ppl just miss this: we should keep plants open and the countries that close them were stupid but the argument for “all of the above energy infrastructure” for clean energy is useless now.

Renewables are less costly and more efficient now (a miracle)

God this sucks…..like I don’t even know what to say atp

Even if you cannot explain the phenomena, you can’t ignore what’s actually happening esp when you have seen this trend for about a year and I have seen too many people just ignore it (key example is arguing passing the SAVE Act would be good for Dems when this is not the case currently)

Sorry tbc I get being confused about why it’s happening but the reality is that it is happening and again back in Nov 2024-Apr 2025, there were so many podcasts about Dems needing to accept this before debating why it happened and how to reverse it which is my point -

Side note: ppl not catching onto where Dems have been overperforming post 2024 is kinda bizzare bc those gains with Hispanics, working class, young voters were what eons of think pieces were about in Nov 2024- Apr 2025

Outright banning data centers is stupid….this is the one area where Mills is right!

Peltola and Brown are running against proven established senators

Again given history and how vital FL will be to Dems in 2032 and beyond it was always stupid to ignore FL but now given polling, special elections, Trump in freefall, it is idiocy to still do so esp when Moody is not strong!

My brother in Christ, every single state listed above swung right 2020 v 2024 (bc nearly every state besides GA did)

Also Vindman is not the only candidate. Sen Nixon is great more importantly Moody is an unknown appointed white incumbent who replaced Rubio

Special elections and polling are showing Hispanic backlash in Florida too (also more than Cubans in Florida)

Case in Point:

bsky.app/profile/vgck...

Like it was already stupid for Dems to ignore Florida given how we need FL for 2032 and beyond as well as historical data about how opposition parties overperform in midterms

But now? After all the special elections and discontent….it would be electoral malpractice by Democrats

Tbc I don’t disagree but OP was arguing to ignore Florida entirely which is insane

How seriously do you think this poll bc I’m like “I would love it to be true but….”

Holy shit, I had forgotten about this race but the JFK kid is really leading polls….LMAO

Again despite polls showing Talarico gaining and Crockett losing support, the same ppl who are saying Dems have no hope in FL were the same ones saying Talarico was doomed against Crockett

Polls > vibes

Like I think Esteves should overtake KLB too but I’m concerned with Election Day a month ago, no one has released a poll showing Bottoms losing support or Esteves gaining

But don’t worry it’s fine bc Jason released a TikTok of him being a “cool black millennial”!!

Seeing ppl immediately throw cold water on a poll that shows Dems maybe having a chance in Florida who are the same ppl with full confidence Esteves will overtake Bottoms the GA-Gov primary race

Polls are always better than vibes!