a solid chunk of positive regression built in for them...my hopes are pretty much all-in on the Badgers, although I wish they had fired Grimes and brought in Joseph's OC from ODU.
UNC maybe gets to count as a >.500 opponent if Petrino fixes offense? but schedule is rough for them and Cuse.
Among the top-10 projected teams, Notre Dame's lack of top opponents (and middle class P4 teams) stands out.
If the Irish take care of business through mid October, BYU will be a big inflection point that makes November either a heartburn month or huge opportunity for revenge / CFP seeding
Pulling the charts I've been putting out here into a post on Notre Dame's preseason SP+ ranking, game by game projections, and how the schedule stacks up against the rest of the top title contenders:
substack.com/home/post/p-...
And how this translates into projected game margins and win probabilities:
it's usually been 3-4 top-30ish teams, but the lack of middle class opponents stands out for '26.
also a big difference if those 3-4 good teams are close to top 10 quality (like the years with OSU / Clemson / SC) and this schedule that really only has one team with elite upside IMO
Notre Dame and 2026 Opponents visualized with preseason SP+ projections:
fighting the urge to abandon all adult responsibilities, crack a cold one, open the windows, and throw super change ups until my opponents surrender
I’d like to feel 10% more confident in the edges and OL, not that they won’t be solid, but lots of moving parts and questions about if they are regular season very good or able to consistently win their matchups in a playoff game good
safe to say the Riley Leonard to CJ Carr transition completely transformed the identity of Notre Dame's passing offense
As spring practices rev up around the country, time for a check-in on Notre Dame's 2026 opponents. How did they finish last year, what major moves did they make with their staffs and portal players, and what are they looking for this offseason?
open.substack.com/pub/spreadsh...
Rylie Mills making me feel things (like what if he was playing against Ohio State last year)
New newsletter: a January wrap-up of the ND transfer portal haul, "lessons" from the CFP, and quick reaction to the official 2026 schedule / Mike Mickens departure:
open.substack.com/pub/spreadsh...
Hmmmm
hard for Miami to be less likeable next year with Carson Beck leaving, but they're trying hard with Duke guys who did the big show of returning, only to take a late bag of cash.
(not acting high and mighty about poaching, but do it like professionals! don't do the "return" video then leave!)
I had this loaded in the mental drafts and didnt see the news til now, ugh
The Super Bowl winning QB will be a guy who lost by 13 at home against Drew Pyne or a guy who lost by 35 against Brandon Wimbush
Andruw Jones making the hall makes me so happy. Played CF with such swagger, seemingly made every diving catch in the gaps and catch at the wall. An imperfect hitter but such a sweet uppercut when he connected. A rare cool points + advanced numbers case to get over the hump. Forever the Curaçao kid.
if Notre Dame loses a championship and gameonpaper looks like this i'm hanging it up
im coming to the offseason respect index with notes on 70 teams
i can feel the tension through skycast right now, have not heard from Kirk Herbstreit or Chris Fowler since November, #blessed
please dont put your life in the haaaands, of a Carson Beck plaaan
Malachi Toney vs. Leonard Moore next fall
looking forward to seeing how Mario is going to screw up this short yardage situation
there have been a lotttt of balls thrown over the middle and off someone's hands in this game with no picks. that's not going to last forever and history says Carson Beck will oblige, but i'm keeping my options open
Mario classics. Run up the middle on every 3rd and short and the defense knows its coming, 50-yard FG attempts because "gotta get points on the board" as if you'll have lots of scoring chances in this game
finding small pleasure in the knowledge that while Miami or Indiana will win, the fans in attendance will all be subjected to the pain of DJ Mal-ski
watching Miami's DL on skycast is giving me PTSD
Ugh let’s just get this over with and simulate ahead to the way too early top 25s and win total lines like normal, well-balanced people
Tonight is the first semifinal of the 12-team playoff.
One year ago, @sjwerner11.bsky.social @mbryan.bsky.social and I recorded a barely coherent zero-edit podcast about Notre Dame's victory over Penn State in that same game.
Happy anniversary, give it a listen.
open.spotify.com/episode/4AxO...
