crowd at the Tisza rally singing "Europa! Europa!"

“forward deterrence as a political gesture or a meaningful survivability measure depends on dispersing only the jets because w/out the warheads it is unlikely to generate substantial operational and deterrence benefits in a crisis” Well done @frankkuhn.bsky.social

warontherocks.com/2026/04/disp...

The $27.44 billion FY27 request for NNSA weapons activities is $3.18 billion (or 13%) more than the FY26 enacted level and $6.1 billion (or 29%) more than the FY25 projection for FY27. There wasnt a FY26 FYNSP, but as of FY25 weapons wasn't slated to exceed $27 billion til FY34.

La blague a déjà été faite mais “Le PAF” (Porte-Avions Français)

How are those security guarantees looking to, well, everyone?

This was not due to Iran, the increase was already planned months ago and already rumored last week before military action

I depressingly think this might become the new normal in 'multipolarity'. minimal boots on the ground, no even pretense at nation building, just an occasional 'fuck you' bombing campaign that kills top leadership and has the explicit intent of destabilization.

Tldr: more nukes does not equal more power. It does equal more spending however

CBO estimate for DOD/DOE plans to operate and sustain current nuclear forces and purchase new forces=$946B over the next 10 years. Building 2000 nukes is not at all cheap, especially if it’s just to protect ourselves from tariffs and other lawlessness (which SCOTUS might strike down anyways)

So using your same analogy, everyone having nukes would basically turn the clock further and make it stay there. Bilateral arms control is difficult, and multilateral arms control is near impossible.

I think that as a Liberal you should instead argue for int’l law so we can return to our system 🤷‍♂️

I mean yeah but that would break other international law (UN Charter).

If Ukraine gets nukes, beyond the inherent huge strategic risk, the selfish argument is that we are at risk of another country having nukes under a government we don’t agree with in the future—good luck then with disarmament

Others can’t produce nuclear weapons because of the Non Proliferation Treaty. And also they shouldn’t because of strategic stability and creating perhaps future adversaries

If the UK and Fr change strategies and want to be more “flexible” like the US, they can adopt a counterforce strategy instead of being countervalue

Then they would definitely need to increase their arsenal to show they can use it “to win nuclear war”—but that’s if you like an arms race

Mainly arms racing and arms control. Also the US needs to deter for allies against multiple adversaries, and RU needs to deter said allies too and also deter China

There’s a lot of literature on it already, but basically the UK and Fr shouldn’t waste so many resources to strike only Moscow 🤷‍♂️

No, there’s no real number needed to deter

Sweden weighs Franco-British nuclear weapons cooperation  - Breaking Defense "I say that when we joined NATO, we are fully involved in all discussions, including those in Europe revolving around nuclear weapons," Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.

Interesting: "Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed." breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...

Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse The authors explore critical points within the biological supply network that bad actors might exploit to develop biological weapons. The authors develop recommendations for enhancing data collection,...

New @rand.org report on biosecurity:
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

An overview of how the new EU-Canada SDP fits in with sister agts: a mix of UK/Nor and Japan/ROK

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142
Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs
@ukandeu.bsky.social

Good morning.

With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group.

A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.

These are Britain’s options for tactical nuclear weapons. We must choose, and act What weapon is not as important as whether there is one

"It isn’t very important which tactical nuclear option we choose – F-35A, a French style standoff weapon, or Tomahawk. What is important is that we choose at least one and get it into service."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...

MoD plans huge £2.9bn sensor support contract with Thales UK The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.

The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...

Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome its Own Nuclear Doctrine? - War on the Rocks In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron declared: Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine since Charles

@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...

🏆 To celebrate the arrival of my "Littoral Commander: Baltics" #wargame, I am going to give away a signed copy of the game. Like, repost, and follow by April 8 (midnight EST)! May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉🎲 #wargaming

The UK’s nuclear deterrent relies on US support – but there are no other easy alternatives Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.

Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going it alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.

☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union”

#nukesky

legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...

🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc.

"We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament."

"This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."

Yes. As a ballpark figure, it makes sense: to the 2% baseline add 0.5% to replace US stopping aid to Ukraine, another 0.5% to reach NATO capability goals with USA still in Europe, and 0.5%-plus to do same after Americans leave. Hence a 3.5% goal pushing towards 4%

Ok RAND needs a cat distro

Happy Caturday

That’s only if the forces are in France. Otherwise it’s sparkling deterrence