@zeit.de (@tilsteff.bsky.social) mit einem einordnenden Beitrag zum Landesparteitag der AfD in Magdeburg, zu dem auch ich einige Sätze beitragen durfte.
> Die AfD ist in Sachsen-Anhalt nicht nur normalisiert und etabliert, sondern auch in sich selbst gewöhnlicher geworden.
tinyurl.com/2j4b96ey
🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics.
Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line?
What we find surprised us: a null!
url: osf.io/preprints/os...
Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it.
In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world:
doi.org/10.1177/0010...
The standard model of liberal, representative democracy is increasingly being challenged from the bottom and the top. In a new paper @Party Politics, Gidi Rahat and I seek to explain why political parties differ in the conception of democracy they advance.
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
🌀
📊 How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes?
🗳️ @krausewe.bsky.social & @christinagahn.bsky.social examine how election polls can shape voter behaviour, from bandwagon effects to strategic voting, and why their influence is more complex than it first appears 🤔
Very happy to share that our paper "Political socialization and immigrants' support for progressive politics: the case of green parties" with @antvalentim.bsky.social is now published in @psrm.bsky.social!
Link to paper: doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Short summary in 🧵below:
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🥳Viel Erfolg im neuen Job!
EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference:
PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend
Apply: lnkd.in/ehXjhCgf
Deadline: March 8, 11:59pm GMT.
More details: lnkd.in/eZTP5sWR
🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März)
BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf.
Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇
zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...
An image of the schedule with speaker images. You can find the full schedule on tada.cool.
🚨 TADA Speaker Series Spring 2026 schedule is here! 🚨
We've assembled a fantastic lineup of researchers exploring the future of survey research in the age of LLMs.
Mar 18 - May 27, online at 17:00 CEST. Join us!
More info & signup: tada.cool
🧵on my new paper "Synthetic personas distort the structure of human belief systems" w Roberto Cerina I'm v excited about...
🚨 Do synthetic samples look like human samples?
We compare 28 LLMs to the 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) to find out + develop host of diagnostics...
Very happy to see our new article “Reference groups and electoral behavior” (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published!
Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.
Ich durfte in der @taz.de ein bisschen was zu Umfragen erzählen, und was soll ich sagen - Berichte über den Tod von Umfragen sind stark übertrieben...
We‘re very excited for the next edition of the Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim! ✨
Join us and apply until 1 March!
More info in @melinscribe.bsky.social‘s thread below and here: summerschoolwpm.org
Application form: sosci.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/wpm/
Two astronauts in space, one pointing a gun at the other, with Earth in the background and text reading “SO-CALLED RIGHT-WING POPULISM,” “Wait, it’s all RACISM?”, and “Always has been.”
Going forward from today, I’ll stop publishing and just repost this meme regularly #AcademicWriting #farright #radicalright
NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out!
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🧵 PhD position (75%) in Political Behavior / Political Communication / CSS
📍 LMU Munich | ⏳ 3 years | 🗓 start March–May 2026
We’re hiring for DemocraGPT, a @bidt.bsky.social-funded project developing an AI-based training for difficult conversations in times of growing polarization
The radical right’s master frame remains ethnic nationalism. Remigration is simply one of its logical consequences. First came stopping (or minimizing) immigration; next is pushing people with migrant backgrounds to leave. Expect further radicalization.
🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion (2 years)
We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald.
✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group
The Christmas prepping was prepping, and I almost forgot to tell you that @miguelpereira.bsky.social is coming all the way to Münster to present work on politicians' ability to use evidence in policy making!
This Wednesday, find the Zoom link below 👇
@danbischof.bsky.social @mwegemann.bsky.social
Ihr Einwand wird allerdings im Text direkt adressiert:
"Denn: 'Potenziale können sich verändern. Das sehen wir auch in anderen westeuropäischen Ländern', sagt Krause. Die Aussicht auf eine zukünftige Regierungsbeteiligung sei gerade bei rechten Parteien ein wichtiger Faktor. [...]"
Die AfD scheint ihre Potentiale unter den Wählenden aktuell ausgeschöpft zu haben.
Ob dies auch so bleibt hängt, insbesondere von den Regierungsparteien und ihren Signalen nach Rechtsaußen ab.
@zeit.de mit einem spannenden Beitrag zum Thema, zu dem ich auch einige Einschätzungen beisteuern durfte.
Amazing news! Congrats, Matthijs!
🚨Job News: Postdoc positions in LSE Government Department 🚨
Apply to work with the brilliant and wonderful Carl Muller-Crepon @carlmc.bsky.social on his BORDERS ERC project at LSE @lsegovernment.bsky.social
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
📢📢 Happy to announce a new update to the PPEG database!
The data now covers
- > 3.000 parties
- 1.100 parliamentary elections
- 402 presidential elections
- 2.044 cabinets
across 73 countries (1945 - 2025, Oct 31).
All info: ppeg.wzb.eu
We hope that data is helpful to the community!
Congrats! 🎉🎉🎉
This is definitely something on our to do list (but also quite some work).
Maybe @paulbederke.bsky.social can say more about the future maintenance of partyfacts?
Thanks for the shoutout! If you or your students encounter any issues/errors/problems, we are happy about feedback!
Dataverse Link: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/ppeg
📢📢 Happy to announce a new update to the PPEG database!
The data now covers
- > 3.000 parties
- 1.100 parliamentary elections
- 402 presidential elections
- 2.044 cabinets
across 73 countries (1945 - 2025, Oct 31).
All info: ppeg.wzb.eu
We hope that data is helpful to the community!
