If, after we wake up and read that the US did not drop a bomb of any size or type on Iran, our relief is the thing that lingers in our minds, God help the Republic. There is no relief here. There is only the generational work of affirming that statement was an aberration. We can't uncross this line.
This is a very helpful post for those asking: 'Will Trump nuke Iran?' @andrewfacini.com breaks down what this could actually mean, how disastrous nuclear use would be, and the secondary/tertiary effects that are often ignored in nuclear strategy.
But watching the last few days, I *am* increasingly worried about nuclear use. Yes, it's my focus and I'm sensitive to it to begin with. And yes it remains unlikely! But there are few other ways to take the visible frustrations of the WH and imagine which options they are considering.
Quite literally swords into plowshares here I fear...
A thread -- which world leaders are calling for a shift to clean energy as a security investment in light of Iran War?
First up, French President Macron: "...everything we do to more toward the transition is also about reducing our dependence.." (1/x)
#cleanenergyisnationalsecurity
Aesthetics and the rule of propinquity all the way down...
The teleological end of this is that WH staff will start wearing ill fitting shoes to feign closeness to the President
This is all downstream from people clearly not reading Schelling.
Excellent point, and phrasing. I get how tempting it is to assume things will “go back to normal” at some point-but we have to push ourselves to think much differently in this moment.
To all those colleague who told me repeatedly over the past year that Europe would never, ever move towards any sort of stand-alone military alliance or nuclear capacity--a reminder that we all need to unleash our political imaginations to even begin to grasp the world we live in today.
A good time to remember that @jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social is running to unseat Finstad in MN.
“Freedom is not free. We have to work at it. Nurture it. Protect it. Even sacrifice for it.”
The worst thing about this is that we know all have to learn what 'ultime avertissement' actually means
Grandeur is so back
This is who federal agents are ripping out of their communities and shipping across the country. This is the danger we're being protected from.
For some reason I'm reminded of this.
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out."
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No matter how many times I see these photos, there's just no inuring oneself to the terrible suffering of Hiroshima.
It's always worth connecting our work back to this reality—we carry the risks of this (+ much worse) every day
And dismissing that means embracing a festering analytical blindspot
Acton on the money here. It is deeply troubling that a spat over sanctions could escalate to "nuke threats by tweet" from Medvedev and Trump but there are likely no changes to US posture, force deployments, nor readiness. Nonetheless, this is still something we would all be better off without~
So lovely to be among such great company with my fellow Center for Climate and Security authors. If you haven't already, read the books in this post by @busbyj2.bsky.social and all the others who are apparently too cool to have @bsky.app accounts :)
@councilonstrategicrisks.org
“If you don't fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately." James Mattis
They fired the entire staff working on multilateral nuclear weapons issues connected to the NPT. Utterly disheartening and terribly dangerous.
Don't forget that foundational investments in the #NNSA's nonproliferation capabilities mean we have off-the-shelf tools for out-of-the-ordinary situations. With at least 400 kgs of enriched uranium in the wind, what would a regime collapse mean for global security? 1/5
You should follow my colleague @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, who specializes in Iran and works with Farsi language sources.
The JCPOA was very good, actually.
Just going to point out that in just the last month we’ve seen the most intense, multi-modal warfare between two nuclear-armed states ever (India & Pakistan) and now possibly the largest-ever attack on nuclear-capable assets in a nuclear state (UA vs Ru, today).
The times they are a-changin’.
Lab director: Hey so, you guys haven't been doing anything to piss off the gods, right?
Me: no
LD: nothing Forbidden.
Me: no!
LD: because I don't know how often you read the news lately,
Me: *nervous* haha yeah the Chicago Pope
LD: No? I mean the-
*13 solid gold pebbles fall out of my pocket*
